The issues and ideas that mattered most to Americans in 2020
Google's "Year in Search 2020" results reveal a year when "why" was searched more than ever.
Credit: Google
The year of coronavirus
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDk1ODk0OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MzA5NzI1OH0.vimp4BokTC01Fl9fIWkplEKWdHpO6aX-TSFdnmzynMc/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C0%2C0%2C0&height=700" id="64208" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a78d75a3c2cc81a2b421296fdd831f89" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller receives the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
<p>In any other year, an <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/coronavirus-questions" target="_self">outbreak of a novel coronavirus</a> strain—such as SARS and MERS—would have been a story tucked into the Science and Health section. In 2020, it was the issue that mattered most. The term "coronavirus" saw the second-largest increase in searches in the U.S., behind only "election results." Worldwide, it was number one.</p><p>Those entries, however, don't reflect coronavirus's hold over the year. The pandemic infected nearly every category in Google's annual analytics. People needed to know about <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/covid-symptoms-sequence" target="_self">coronavirus symptoms</a> and keep up-to-date on the virus's spread. Trending news terms included "stock market," "<a href="https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/us-government-digital-transformation-woes" target="_self">stimulus check</a>," and "<a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/job-seekers-coronavirus" target="_self">unemployment</a>," all driven by the dire economic straits the pandemic plunged the U.S. into this March. And top word searches ensured "pandemic," "quarantine," and "asymptomatic" would become commonplace in our national word-stock.</p><p>Coronavirus widened the country's already intractable polarization, revealed its <a href="https://bigthink.com/Northwell-Health/health-disparities-coronavirus" target="_self">devastating health gaps</a>, and, as of this writing, has killed nearly 300,000 Americans. <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/covid-brain-damage" target="_self">The potential long-term effects</a> faced by <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/covid-19-survivors" target="_self">America's 15 million COVID-19 survivors</a> are unknown but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html#:~:text=Respiratory%3A%20lung%20function%20abnormalities,difficulty%20with%20concentration%2C%20memory%20problems" target="_blank">may include complications</a> of the cardiovascular, respiratory, and neurological systems.</p><p>While <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/russia-claims-worlds-first-covid-19-vaccine" target="_self">Russia announced the world's first COVID-19 vaccine</a> in August, those claims were scientifically dubious. Since then, more rigorously tested vaccines have been <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/uk-covid-vaccine" target="_self">green-lighted in the United Kingdom</a> and the United States, and both countries have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/14/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">begun administering it</a> to high-risk populations and front-line workers. However, the vaccine's effectiveness and how <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine" target="_self">readily it will be available</a> to everyone remains to be seen. For its first few months, at least, 2021 may be the pandemic sequel no one asked for.</p>The new national pastime
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDk1ODk1NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNzc5MzQ3M30.sfNgt_x0PrynD5Brdku6L045lxOuU7PVYw3n9598Dlk/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C0%2C0%2C0&height=700" id="82bbe" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3e30b2180da0cd13e0f6a011d006ae1f" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />The Electoral College recently cemented Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Congress is scheduled to confirm the votes on January 6, 2021.
<p>Thanks to an anemic baseball season, politics became not just America's new pastime but the world's. The U.S.'s number one trending search term was "election results," and it was number two globally. Politicians became popular search terms, too, with "Joe Biden," "Kamala Harris," and "Pete Buttigieg" leading the pack. And coronavirus-related changes to <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/states-easy-voting" target="_self">traditional voting methods in many states</a> propelled Americas to google about early voting, how to vote, and where they could vote.</p><p>While <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/most-contentious-election-in-american-history-1876" target="_self">American politics have been contentious</a> more often than not, the 2020 election proved fraught, vitriolic, all-encompassing, and seemingly everlasting. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/important-issues-in-the-2020-election/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political parties sparred over issues</a> such as the economy, immigration, violent crime, racial inequality, climate change, and, of course, the incumbent's response to the coronavirus. The September passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg added another ideological melee into the larger political fray, and the entire process was <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/election-results" target="_self">further complicated by social media</a> and the debate over <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/social-media-2020-us-election" target="_self">its culpability in the spread of false information</a>.</p><p>Worse, for many, the usual avenues of escape and mental decompression were barricaded by pandemic restrictions and mandates.</p><p>This national drama, which normally would have ended on Super Tuesday, entered its third act with a protracted vote count. As critical battleground states slowly tallied the influx of mail-in ballots, "who is winning the election" quickly became one of Google's most searched for questions of the year. The answer was determined to be challenger Joe Biden, bringing a decisive end to one of 2020's most challenging moments.</p><p>Kidding! In an unprecedented move, incumbent Donald Trump claimed the results were fraudulent and has (as of this writing) refused to concede. He and his legal team have <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-election-fight-includes-over-30-lawsuits-it-s-n1248289" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">filed more than 50 lawsuits</a> to contest the results, most of which have been shot down as frivolous. For the record: There has been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">no evidence of widespread fraud</a> in the election.</p><p><a href="https://bigthink.com/videos/abolish-the-electoral-college" target="_self">The Electoral College</a> has since <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-270-electoral-college-vote-d429ef97af2bf574d16463384dc7cc1e" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cemented Joe Biden's victory</a>, and it looks like this is one 2020 contention that we can safely put behind us come New Year's. Kidding, kidding! A cohort of <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2020/12/02/the-gops-electoral-mischief-491033" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Republican lawmakers has proposed challenging the Electoral College votes</a> when Congress convenes to confirm them on January 6. Sigh.</p>Livin' in virtual insanity
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDk1ODk1Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MzMxNjUyOX0.x-ttrIxjl9_LfCN9GNNGy5ZocwjtsUYd0kZN--Yeut4/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C345%2C0%2C345&height=700" id="4e759" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="dc71bbeb7cd9423709008b3bd8ab2b23" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />New York students returned to school for in-person learning this December.
<p>Conspicuously absent from Google's "Year in Search 2020" are the usual events and happenings. With Americans forced to shelter-in-place and events canceled under pandemic restrictions, we've transitioned to a year of virtual living.</p><p>"Zoom" entered the top trending searches at number six, and "virtual" became a trending category. Many of the year's <a href="https://bigthink.com/Charles-Koch-Foundation/emergency-remote-learning-vs-online-education" target="_self">virtual inquiries related to education</a> and student enrichment—with "virtual field trips," "virtual museum tours," "virtual learning," and "virtual classroom" all landing in the top ten virtual searches. </p><p>For schools, parents, and students alike, remote learning has proven one of the year's Herculean labors. While there is evidence that remote <a href="https://bigthink.com/personal-growth/remote-education" target="_self">education has decreased anxiety for some children, </a>there's also evidence suggesting that such setups are taking <a href="https://www.apa.org/news/apa/2020/10/online-learning-mental-health" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a mental health toll on others</a>. Unfortunately, we likely won't know for some time how a year of peer separation will affect student's social development or their scholastic achievements.</p><p>American adults have also felt the social claustrophobia of stay-at-home orders and are seeking a virtual escape. Trending searches include "virtual marriage," "virtual baby shower," "virtual NBA fans," and "virtual EDC raves." As with their pint-sized peers, it remains unknown how <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/pandemic-mental-health" target="_self">this year of isolation will affect mental health</a> in adults. However, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">data suggest</a> stress, anxiety, depression, and other mental maladies have become more widespread alongside altered health habits and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444649/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a lack of access to mental health support services</a>.</p><p>These virtual events may serve as an analgesic, but they aren't a cure for the problem.</p>Personal growth becomes personal beauty
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDk2NDUwNS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMjIxNjcxMH0.Ng9pn9K_jbVQCZZY7o7i0HpfHPI6o8OzV5nEvLPS57Y/img.jpg?width=980" id="e4b04" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8477605b3cc2e1d8682fbc94e07f5f44" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="at-home haircut" data-width="7360" data-height="4912" />Credit: Eugenio Marongiu / Adobe Stock
<p><a href="https://www.bigthinkedge.com/5-things-to-learn-about-personal-growth-and-how-to-achieve-your-own/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Personal growth</a> and health habits typically have a strong standing in Google's "Year of Search," but in 2020, diets and mindfulness took a backseat to the how-to's. How-to questions became trending searches thanks to Americans being cut off from amenities such as beauty parlors and nail salons.</p><p>Most of the trending how-to searches were for hair care. How to cut men's hair and women's hair. How to plop hair, <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/does-hair-dye-cause-cancer" target="_self">color hair</a>, and style curtain bangs. Americans clearly pined for their stylists in 2020. </p><p>Other notable how-to's included dermaplaning, washing hands properly, sewing a face mask, and rocking sweatpants with style. And if that list doesn't signal just how difficult 2020 was, then what else does?</p>Mother Nature pushes back
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9bb94f5d5a58d40f03e1515f3c2e467c"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gzksqQDI_kE?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Well, science news may. 2020's trending science searches centered on natural disasters. Americans googled "fires near me" as conflagrations devoured the West Coast, destroying <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/too-many-trees" target="_self">forests</a>, neighborhoods, and even <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-09-09/explosive-western-us-wildfires-threaten-oregon-towns" target="_blank">whole towns</a> as they went. <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/hurricane-laura-live-updates" target="_blank">Hurricane Laura</a>, a Category 4 storm, also trended after slamming into Louisiana this August.</p><p>All told, 2020 witnessed <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-running-list-of-record-breaking-natural-disasters-in-2020/" target="_blank">record-breaking levels of natural disasters</a>, many hitting with a force more devastating than previous years. This <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1075142" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rise in climate emergencies</a> is part of a two-decade trend that scientists have linked to climate change and increased global temperatures.</p><p>When not worrying about natural disasters, Americans were fretting over "murder hornets," another trending term. Entomologists discovered the murder hornets—actually named the Asian giant hornets—in Washington state this year. Because native bees have no natural defenses against this <a href="https://bigthink.com/kevin-dickinson/invasive-species-how-the-tegu-lizard-could-invade-the-southern-us" target="_self">invasive species</a>, their colonies can be massacred by a few dozen hornets in mere hours. While one murder hornet's nest was discovered and destroyed near Blaine, Washington, experts worry there may be more.</p><p>At least there was that baby platypus to enjoy. Except no. In true 2020 fashion, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/the-incredibly-cute-baby-platypus-that-went-viral-has-a-dark-secret-you-ought-to-know" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">that picture was bogus</a>—although, not to be a total buzzkill, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhVCwtW6gQ0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">real platypus babies</a> are darn cute.</p>Aiming to make 2021 a better year
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDk1ODk2OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMjM4NzcyNn0.9p5TuitsBtuKblWPCM_mR8DCL7mxoBdrcfMyncrj9vk/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C215%2C0%2C215&height=700" id="78c31" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="240158cc13d58aab62156ce4be124409" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />Students line up to receive food aid packages provided by the charity Secours Populaire in France.
<p>If we're looking for a silver lining to 2020—and at this point it'd be nice—it's that people were actively searching for ways to make the world better.</p><p>The categories "how to donate" and "how to help" both trended in the United States. People wanted to know how to help Yemen, Beirut, Black Lives Matter, and the Australian bushfires. They searched how to assist during the pandemic or help someone having a panic attack. They wanted to donate to Goodwill and send N95 masks to medical facilities. Even search terms about how to donate blood and plasma became trending in 2020. </p><p>As mentioned at the beginning of this article, that means that more people were searching for answers to these questions than in previous years, a likely sign of people trying to help others. So while 2020 certainly sucked, it would have been worse without the people who made it better in their own small way. </p><p>As we look to New Year's Eve, we can crank up Elton John's "I'm Still Standing" and take heart that if next year is better, it is because of the efforts we made in 2020. Because 2021 has got to be a better year. Right?</p>Researchers discover intact brain cells of man killed by Mt Vesuvius eruption
The young man died nearly 2,000 years ago in the volcanic eruption that buried Pompeii.
- A team of researchers in Italy discovered the intact brain cells of a young man who died in the Mount Vesuvius eruption in A.D. 79.
- The brain's cell structure was visible to researchers (who used an electron microscope) in a glassy, black material found inside the man's skull.
- The material was likely the victim's brain preserved through the process of vitrification in which the intense heat followed by rapid cooling turned the organ to glass.
Discovery of cells
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUwNTc3Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NzkxOTE3Nn0.P40yPfGHp1jlqrALyP2BXokaKnS1u0ThXdmsbOuRrtw/img.png?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C78%2C0%2C78&height=700" id="a2fc4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="72ff4c56563712e6e7a89df6207cebf1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />Electron microscope image of brain axons.
Credit: PLOS ONE
<p>Now, subsequent research has described how the researchers, using an electron microscope, discovered cells in the vitrified brain. According to Petrone they were "incredibly well preserved with a resolution that is impossible to find anywhere else." Additionally, the team used another method called energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to determine the chemical compounds of the glassy material. The sample was rich in carbon and oxygen, which indicates that it was organic. The researchers compared those ancient proteins to a database of proteins found in the human brain, and found that all of the discovered proteins are indeed present in human brain tissue.</p> <p>Additionally, Petrone and his team suspect they also discovered vitrified nerve cells in the ancient victim's spinal cord and cerebellum based on the position of the sample in the mind of the skull and the concentration of the proteins. </p>Future research
<p>These impeccable preservations of brain tissue are unprecedented and will undoubtedly open the door to new and exciting research opportunities on these ancient people and civilizations that weren't possible until now.</p> <p>The Italian research team will continue to study the remains to learn more about the vitrification process, including the precise temperatures the victims were exposed to and the cooling rate of the ash. They also, according to Petrone, want to analyze proteins from the remains and their related genes. </p>Scientists see an earthquake boomerang back and forth in the Atlantic
Seismic data from 2016 reveals a rare bi-directional boomerang earthquake.
- An earthquake ran quickly east before turning west beneath the Atlantic Ocean near the equator in 2016.
- Such earthquakes are likely to pack significantly more destructive power.
- Land-based boomerang earthquakes may have been witnessed, but have never been recorded seismographically.
It was definitely an odd story Rosario García González told in the summer of 2010.
González is an elder of the indigenous Cucapah community in Baja, California/Mexico. He and his wife were in their trailer in Paso Inferior, about 12 miles south-southwest of Mexicali when they heard and felt the distinct, powerful rumble of earthquake moving across their valley. Looking outside, they watched as a cloud of light-colored dust was thrown up into the air along a path going in the opposite direction, as if a truck was retracing the earthquake's path. Except there was no truck.
It's not that scientists didn't believe González's story — they just couldn't figure out what he saw. Could an earthquake possible boomerang? The answer appears to be yes. A new study of seismic data has found clear evidence of another boomerang earthquake — technically a "back-propagating supershear rupture" — that shot back and forth deep beneath the Atlantic Ocean in 2016.
Boom and back
Reconstruction of Romanche fracture zone
Credit: Hicks et al., published in Nature Geoscience / © Imperial College London
The research was conducted by scientists from the University of Southampton and Imperial College, London in the U.K. First author Stephen Hicks of Imperial College says, "Whilst scientists have found that such a reversing rupture mechanism is possible from theoretical models, our new study provides some of the clearest evidence for this enigmatic mechanism occurring in a real fault."
The 2016 magnitude 7.1 quake occurred along the Romanche fracture zone — this is a 559 mile-long fault line near the Atlantic equator, about 650 miles west of the coast of Liberia.
Speaking to National Geographic, Hicks recalled the discovery of what at first seemed like a pair of pulses, which closer examination indicated might actually be two phases of the same quake. If so, the quake zipped eastward, and then west. "This was a weird sort of configuration to see," he says. Confirmation of the boomerang was provided by Ryo Okuwaki of Japan's University of Tsukuba via the identification of seismic echoes from the distant event.
"Even though the fault structure seems simple, the way the earthquake grew was not, and this was completely opposite to how we expected the earthquake to look before we started to analyse the data," admits Hicks.
When modeled, the data collected by 39 seismometers arrayed along the bottom of the ocean-floor gash depicted a temblor that moved rapidly in one direction before suddenly turning around and going back in the other at a blistering 11,000 miles per hour. This likely caused seismic waves to pile up similarly to what happens with air-pressure waves trigger a sonic boom, significantly magnifying the quake's power.
Land boomerangs
Rosario García González points to where the earthquake doubled back.
Image source: CISESE/USGS
While it's logistically simpler to record and study earthquakes on land thanks to the availability of seismometer networks, land-based temblors tend to track complex fault systems, with geological slips occurring in a series like falling dominoes. Sea-bottom quakes appear to be simpler, making it easier to discern their underlying mechanisms and travels.
Only a few boomerang quakes have ever been recorded, and examples of them on land are virtually nonexistent, making accounts such as González's that much more valuable. Clearly, quakes that double back on themselves stand to do considerably more damage than one-way shakers, allowing more outward propagation of destructive seismic waves in the direction of travel, an amount that would be doubled in a boomerang. Seismologist Kasey Aderhold tells National Geographic that "studies like this help us understand how past earthquakes ruptured, how future earthquakes may rupture, and how that relates to the potential impact for faults near populated areas."
Scientists developing computer models aimed at predicting seismic events haven't thus far been able to create worthy simulations of boomerang quakes, so the details provided the U.K. researchers provide some of the best information yet collected on these geologic oddities.
'A world with no ice': Confronting the horrors of climate change
The complacent majority needs to step up and call for action on climate change.
- Climate change is often framed as a debate that has split society down the middle and that requires more evidence before we can act. In reality, 97 percent of scientists agree that it is real and only 3 percent are skeptical. A sticking point for some is the estimated timeline, but as Columbia University professor Philip Kitcher points out, a 4-5 Celsius temperature increase that makes the planet uninhabitable is a disaster no matter when it happens.
- In this video, 9 experts (including professors, astronomers, authors, and historians) explain what climate change looks like, how humans have already and are continuing to contribute to it, how and why it has become politicized, and what needs to happen moving forward for real progress to be made.
- David Wallace-Wells, journalist and New America Foundation National Fellow, says that the main goal of climate action is not to win over the skeptical minority, but to "make those people who are concerned but still fundamentally complacent about the issue to be really engaged in a way that they prioritize climate change in their politics and their voting and make sure that our leaders think of climate change as a first-order political priority."
Experts are already predicting an 'active' 2020 hurricane season
It looks like a busy hurricane season ahead. Probably.
- Before the hurricane season even started in 2020, Arthur and Bertha had already blown through, and Cristobal may be brewing right now.
- Weather forecasters see signs of a rough season ahead, with just a couple of reasons why maybe not.
- Where's an El Niño when you need one?
Welcome to Hurricane Season 2020. 2020, of course, scoffs at this calendric event much as it has everything else that's normal — meteorologists have already used up the year's A and B storm names before we even got here. And while early storms don't necessarily mean a bruising season ahead, forecasters expect an active season this year. Maybe storms will blow away the murder hornets and 13-year locusts we had planned.
NOAA expects a busy season
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, there's a 60 percent chance that we're embarking upon a season with more storms than normal. There does, however, remain a 30 percent it'll be normal. Better than usual? Unlikely: Just a 10 percent chance.
Where a normal hurricane season has an average of 12 named storms, 6 of which become hurricanes and 3 of which are major hurricanes, the Climate Prediction Center reckons we're on track for 13 to 29 storms, 6 to 10 of which will become hurricanes, and 3 to 6 of these will be category 3, 4, or 5, packing winds of 111 mph or higher.
What has forecasters concerned are two factors in particular.
This year's El Niño ("Little Boy") looks to be more of a La Niña ("Little Girl"). The two conditions are part of what's called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which describes temperature fluctuations between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. With an El Niño, waters in the Pacific are unusually warm, whereas a La Niña means unusually cool waters. NOAA says that an El Niño can suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic, and this year that mitigating effect is unlikely to be present.
Second, current conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean suggest a fertile hurricane environment:
- The ocean there is warmer than usual.
- There's reduced vertical wind shear.
- Atlantic tropical trade winds are weak.
- There have been strong West African monsoons this year.
Here's NOAA's video laying out their forecast:
But wait.
ArsTechnica spoke to hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, who agrees generally with NOAA, saying, "All in all, signs are certainly pointing towards an active season." Still, he notes a couple of signals that contradict that worrying outlook.
First off, Klotzbach notes that the surest sign of a rough hurricane season is when its earliest storms form in the deep tropics south of 25°N and east of the Lesser Antilles. "When you get storm formations here prior to June 1, it's typically a harbinger of an extremely active season." Fortunately, this year's hurricanes Arthur and Bertha, as well as the maybe-imminent Cristobal, formed outside this region. So there's that.
Second, Klotzbach notes that the correlation between early storm activity and a season's number of storms and intensities, is actually slightly negative. So while statistical connections aren't strongly predictive, there's at least some reason to think these early storms may augur an easy season ahead.
Image source: NOAA
Batten down the hatches early
If 2020's taught us anything, it's how to juggle multiple crises at once, and layering an active hurricane season on top of SARS-CoV-2 — not to mention everything else — poses a special challenge. Warns Treasury Secretary Wilbur Ross, "As Americans focus their attention on a safe and healthy reopening of our country, it remains critically important that we also remember to make the necessary preparations for the upcoming hurricane season." If, as many medical experts expect, we're forced back into quarantine by additional coronavirus waves, the oceanic waves slamming against our shores will best be met by storm preparations put in place in a less last-minute fashion than usual.
Ross adds, "Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe."
Let's hope this, at least, can be counted on in this crazy year.
