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Penn Jillette: The year that shattered America's illusions
The year 2020 will go down in history as one that shook our inner and outer worlds.
09 July, 2020
In this Big Think Live session, magician, author, and cultural critic Penn Jillette will discuss the giant upheavals of 2020 through the lens of what he knows best: illusions.
<p>Which social, personal, and governmental illusions have been shattered this year, and how (and what) should we rebuild? Jillette, one half the world's most famous magic duo with Teller, will also give tips on how to foster long-term business partnerships and sustain creativity, and how he maintains a clear, rational mind in the noisiest era to date.
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Moderated by Victoria Montgomery-Brown, co-founder and CEO of Big Think.</p><p><strong>STREAMING LINKS:</strong></p><p><a href="https://edge.bigthink.com/live_streams/99">
Big Think Edge</a> | <a href="https://youtu.be/kXtD3zTxjO4">YouTube</a> | <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BigThinkdotcom/posts/10157492362503527">Facebook</a>
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8 powerful speakers that might make you think differently about racism
8 powerful voices share what it's like to be black in America, and why white people must break the racist status quo.
19 June, 2020
- Black communities have been telling the nation, for more than a century, that they have been targeted, beaten, falsely accused and killed by the police and other institutions meant to protect them.
- They have not been believed until recently, when the rise in camera phones and social media finally enabled them show and disseminate proof.
- Even after the video of George Floyd's death on May 25, 2020, there remains defensiveness and denial among white Americans and institutions—a defensiveness that prevents change to the root of the problem: systemic racism. In this video, eight powerful voices share perspectives on being black in America, and why white inaction and white politeness must end.
To learn more about what you can do to end the racist status quo, educate yourself and take action. Here is Robin DiAngelo's list of resources.
An expert explains what 'Abolish the Police' really means
It turns out big ideas don't always fit in sign-sized slogans.
18 June, 2020
Photo by JASON REDMOND/AFP via Getty Images
- People are talking a lot about abolishing police lately, but what does that mean?
- We spoke with an expert on the subject, who reveals the nuance in the idea.
- Like any broad concept, there are a diversity of ideas expressed in the slogan.
<p>Unless you've been living under a rock, you are undoubtedly aware that Americans are taking to the streets in opposition to police brutality in the wake of the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and countless others. One of the protesters' demands is articulated by the seemingly rash statement, "Abolish the Police." <br> <br> On the face of it, this demand can seem like anarchistic nonsense. One might ask how society will function with nobody filling the duties of the police departments. However, getting past the rhetoric allows us to dive into the idea behind the phrasing. There, we find a more nuanced notion with plenty of intellectual history behind it.</p>
An interview with Maira Khwaja
<p>To learn more about this, I spoke with Maira Khwaja, the Engagement Director at the <a href="https://invisible.institute/" target="_blank">Invisible Institute</a> in Chicago. A lightly edited transcript of our interview appears below:</p><p><strong>How would you describe the idea of Police Abolition? </strong><br> <br> "Police and prison abolition is like a mindset of trying to imagine and work towards a society where police would not be necessary. It's not about 'we end police tomorrow.' It's about trying to create a world where we don't need police and prisons. For somebody just learning about it for the first time, I can imagine it would sound impossible. The point is about imagining what else we need to come up first."<br> <br> <strong>Why is this preferable to reform efforts?</strong></p><p>"Abolitionist reforms seek to take power from the police and put it elsewhere where it would reduce crime at its source. In Chicago, if somebody is struggling with homelessness, you have to go through the police in order to get any homeless services. This can make people too afraid to get the help they need. What if there was a different front door to access the services they need? An abolitionist reform might be to create an alternative first responder for dealing with homelessness in the city. Chicago has 'advanced' reforms. We need officers to record each time they pull a gun. Anecdotally, we can see this isn't happening."</p><p><strong>Is police abolition the same thing as "defund the police" that you see on so many protest signs these days?</strong></p><p>"Not the same, but defund the police is part of abolition. The critical thing is that defund the police doesn't go far enough. It must be defund and invest. We have to take the money from the police and put it into something that has been defunded a lot. In Chicago, this would be education and housing. 'Defund' sounds radical until you realize how many other social services have been defunded over the last few decades."<br> <strong><br> </strong><strong>In the mind of a supporter of police abolition, how do the police work? How does this impact the viewpoint?</strong></p><p>"Think of abolition as 'What if the police didn't exist at all? What would we have to do to deal with people's help and safety and crisis response?' We would have some group to fight crime. Pure abolitionists would say 'policing should not exist.'<br> <br> I say, I'm not entirely there yet on not having any system of policing. There would be crime and exploitation. I would like to see an alternative kind of first response when crimes are committed.<br> <br> Jaime Kalvin (also of the Invisible Institute<em>) </em>suggested that there is a core function of police, reacting to situations where people feel physically threatened. I would have police address that core function and leave everything else to other services and just have the police address the truest emergencies."</p>Is that everything then?
<p>Now, Maira Khwaja can only speak for their point of view, but they identify many key points in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement" target="_blank">abolitionist cause</a>. Namely, reducing the number of things the police are called in for, taking police funding and putting it into programs that prevent crime, and considering what alternative methods of dealing with crime and safety exist that don't involve the police force. </p>Who else has written on this? What do they say?
<div class="rm-shortcode" data-media_id="h9zLrcKs" data-player_id="FvQKszTI" data-rm-shortcode-id="ec8557ce07d3452c68d603c96f0042dc"> <div id="botr_h9zLrcKs_FvQKszTI_div" class="jwplayer-media" data-jwplayer-video-src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/h9zLrcKs-FvQKszTI.js"> <img src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/thumbs/h9zLrcKs-1920.jpg" class="jwplayer-media-preview" /> </div> <script src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/h9zLrcKs-FvQKszTI.js"></script> </div> <p>The significant points behind the police abolition movement have been floating around for decades. Former vice presidential candidate and activist Dr. Angela Davis has been discussing the idea for years. Her work in the related concept of <a href="https://collectiveliberation.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Are_Prisons_Obsolete_Angela_Davis.pdf" target="_blank">prison abolition </a>does too. In one of her recent <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2020/6/12/angela_davis_on_abolition_calls_to" target="_blank">interviews</a>, she further explains the idea:</p><p> "Defunding the police is not simply about withdrawing funding for law enforcement and doing nothing else. And it appears as if this is the rather superficial understanding that has caused Biden to move in the direction he's moving in. It's about shifting public funds to new services and new institutions — mental health counselors, who can respond to people who are in crisis without arms. It's about shifting funding to education, to housing, to recreation. All of these things help to create security and safety. It's about learning that safety, safeguarded by violence, is not really safety. And I would say that abolition is not primarily a negative strategy. It's not primarily about dismantling, getting rid of, but it's about reenvisioning. It's about building anew."</p><p>Mariame Kaba, the director of <a href="http://project-nia.org/" target="_blank">Project NIA</a>, has been involved in the prison abolition movement for a while and lays out their ideas in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/opinion/sunday/floyd-abolish-defund-police.html" target="_blank">New York Times OpEd</a> which argues that our current model of crime prevention is less effective than you think and that alternatives would not only reduce police brutality but prevent more crime in the long run. </p><p><a href="http://www.alex-vitale.info/" target="_blank">Professor Alex Vitale</a> of Brooklyn College explained his stances in an interview with <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2020/06/alex-vitale-police-reform-defund-protests" target="_blank">Jacobin</a>, where he argues that police brutality is a feature of our current system which has endured despite decades of well-meaning people admitting the problem was real. He then argues that dramatic change is necessary to solve the problem. His ideas can also be found in his book "The End of Policing," which is <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/books/2426-the-end-of-policing" target="_blank">currently available by download for free.</a> </p><p>As Maira Khwaja said, the concept is broad, and there are many views within it. Some of these thinkers advance ideas that others would reject as too much or too little. Despite this, the fundamental concepts of reducing the number of issues we delegate to the police and taking the money this saves and putting it into things like education, healthcare, and social services remains. </p><p>Activists are not known for getting the phrasing of their demands reviewed by savvy media gurus who can make them inoffensive or grant them laser-like precision. While the phrase "abolish the police" is an inaccurate depiction of what many, but not all, activists want to do, it is a bold enough phrase to ignite the fires of debate –which is precisely what activism is supposed to do.</p><p>Given that you've just read an entire article considering what the idea is, it seems like the phrasing has worked wonders. </p>
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A decade ago, this scientist predicted 2020 would bring 'peak' chaos to the U.S.
Can researchers use data science to accurately predict the future?
17 June, 2020
- Cliodynamics is a relatively new area of research that aims to take a scientific approach to studying history.
- In 2012, a scientist named Peter Turchin published a paper describing how political instability in the U.S. tends to repeat over short- and long-term cycles.
- Turchin suggests that political instability in the U.S. is driven by underlying factors like falling wages, wealth inequality, and intra-elite competition.
<p>If we don't understand the mistakes from our history, we may be doomed to repeat them. But what if we could use science to not only better understand our past, but also make predictions about our future? </p><p>One scientist's research suggests that may be possible.</p><p>In 2012, Peter Turchin published a <a href="http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf" target="_blank">study in the Journal of Peace Research</a> that offered an ominous prediction: The U.S will suffer a "peak" of instability in 2020. Today, that prediction seems to have been spot on. The nation is suffering from a deadly pandemic, social unrest over police brutality, and the reliably chaotic state of Trump-era politics.</p><p>But how did Turchin get it right?</p><p>As a mathematician and evolutionary biologist, Turchin is a key figure in a young and controversial field called cliodynamics. (The name comes from "Clio," who was the muse of history in Greek mythology.) This multidisciplinary area of research examines history through a quantitative approach, essentially treating history as science. </p><p>Cliodynamics practitioners often take advantage of newly digitized historical information, creating and testing mathematical models that aim to explain big questions about the past, like why do empires rise and fall? In blunter terms, the goal is to show that "history is not 'just one damn thing after another," as Turchin told <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078#:~:text=Turchin%20calls%20this%20the%20fathers,the%20third%20generation%20begins%20again.&text=Turchin%20has%20also%20applied%20this,such%20as%20how%20religions%20grow." target="_blank">Nature</a>. Here's how Turchin described cliodynamics in an article published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/cliodynamics-can-science-decode-the-laws-of-history-8626" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"...the adherents of cliodynamics treat historical record just as, say, evolutionary biologists treat the palaeontological record. Theories are constructed and based on general principles and tested empirically with comprehensive databases. In short, we use the standard scientific method that worked so well in physics, biology, and many social sciences."</p><p>In his 2012 study, Turchin examined the history of sociopolitical instability in the U.S. from 1780 to 2010. To do this, he used data on about 1,600 violent political incidents from American history, such as lynchings, riots, and terrorism. </p><p>He combined that data with a model that factored in broader societal forces, such as falling wages, wealth inequality, changes in population, and increased competition for elite jobs.</p><p>The results revealed that American political violence tends to occur in regular cycles, with valleys of peace punctuated by peaks of violence and unrest.</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQwMDE0Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNzY0MTk3MX0.CCIZu4f9iUEUxEvCLfVJ4jf1ww4FxQ32b67Jd3uRImM/img.png?width=980" id="244ac" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="440e840e98041dbb6316535001f64fa1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="US Political Violence Database chart showing spikes in 1870, 1920, and 1970." /><p>One is a short cycle that occurs about every 50 years, with peaks in 1870, 1920 and 1970. Turchin calls this oscillation the "father-son" cycle: the father perceives a social injustice and revolts, while the son's generation deals with the aftermath and abstains from revolution. Then, the third generation repeats the cycle.<br></p><p>The second cycle is much longer, peaking once every two to three centuries. The cycle begins with a society that's roughly egalitarian, but over time its population increases, labor supply outpaces demand, and wealth inequality becomes increasingly intolerable. Eventually, societies tend to collapse or suffer widespread political instability.</p>
Structural-demographic theory
<p>Turchin's model is based on structural-demographic theory, which seeks to understand the broad underlying forces that cause societies to become unstable. The theory has revealed that regular cycles of political instability have occurred not only in the U.S., but also in the Roman Empire, Egypt, China, and Russia. </p><p>To better understand the theory, try thinking about the causes of revolutions as being similar to the tectonic processes that cause earthquakes, as Turchin and economic historian Andrey Korotayev wrote in a <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/7ahqn/" target="_blank">2020 paper</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"In both revolutions and earthquakes it is useful to distinguish 'pressures' (structural conditions, which build up slowly) from 'triggers' (sudden releasing events, which immediately precede a social or geological eruption). Specific triggers of political upheavals are difficult, perhaps even impossible to predict.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">On the other hand, structural pressures build up slowly and more predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting. Furthermore, many triggering events themselves are ultimately caused by pent-up social pressures that seek an outlet—in other words, by the structural factors."</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQwMDE0Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MDI2MTY0NH0.4uLtSqoGABnr3QX4kQBu9Dqkct9von9xKm2frazeHAc/img.png?width=980" id="b243d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7586696b24d6aba83e9fd019392ed9a1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="Graphic showing the main logical components of the structural-demographic theory" /><p>Turchin's model found that violent political outbursts in the U.S. tend to peak when these types of structural factors are stressed in specific ways. Turchin noted three key drivers of instability that, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/cliodynamics-can-science-decode-the-laws-of-history-8626" target="_blank">deadwood waiting for a forest fire</a>, have been building up over the past several decades: wealth inequality, increased competition for elite jobs, and rising national debt.</p><p>Turchin <a href="https://theconversation.com/cliodynamics-can-science-decode-the-laws-of-history-8626" target="_blank">noted</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"...each [of these factors] did not develop in isolation; they are actually interconnected at a fundamental level. Moreover, our historical research shows that this combination of trends is typical of historical societies that are in the pre-crisis phase."</p><p>So, while the U.S. is going through a tense period, it may only be just the beginning of a larger crisis. Turchin even told <a href="https://time.com/5852397/turchin-2020-prediction/" target="_blank">Time</a> that it's possible that tensions "may escalate all the way to a civil war."</p><p>But collapse isn't inevitable. As researchers continue to develop a deeper understanding of the underlying forces that drive political instability, society is in a unique position to pull back from the brink, as Turchin wrote in an article for <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/history-tells-us-where-the-wealth-gap-leads" target="_blank">Aeon</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst — perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether."</p>
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This spreadsheet lists 500+ videos of alleged police brutality amid George Floyd protests
The videos raise serious legal and moral questions about police crowd-control tactics.
09 June, 2020
via @Whitney_hu on Twitter
- The publicly accessible Google Sheet lists nearly 600 incidents of alleged police misconduct.
- Each entry is organized by city, and most contain a link to a video.
- From tear gas to rubber bullets, the videos highlight the extensive powers police are given in certain situations.
<p>Activists have been compiling videos of violent clashes between protestors and police in the two weeks since George Floyd was killed by officer Derek Chauvin. Hundreds of these videos appear on a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1YmZeSxpz52qT-10tkCjWOwOGkQqle7Wd1P7ZM1wMW0E/htmlview?pru=AAABcql6DI8*mIHYeMnoj9XWUp3Svb_KZA#" target="_blank">Google spreadsheet</a> that currently lists more than 500 incidents of alleged police misconduct. Many of the scenes are surreal.</p><p>In Minneapolis, a video shows police marching down a mostly empty residential street and screaming "get inside!" to a handful of residents standing on a porch. When the group doesn't go inside, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9wiuvmyKV8&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">police shoot them</a> with pepper bullets.</p><p>In San Diego, police said they witnessed a woman swing a sign at an officer on a motorcycle. It's unclear whether she did. <a href="https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/police-investigating-controversial-protest-arrest-caught-on-video/?taid=5edd5d85412e96000189f79e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter" target="_blank">But what a video does show is several cops arresting a woman at gunpoint</a>, putting her inside an unmarked van, and telling her concerned friends: "If you follow us, you will get shot."</p><p>In Austin, 16-year-old Edwin Ayala attended a protest. He stood alone on a grassy hill, about a dozen yards away from police and other protestors. As Ayala stood still, an officer on the street raised his gun and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDDRlEeL1x4&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">shot a bean-bag bullet at the boy's head</a>. Ayala collapsed instantly and was <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/brad-levi-ayala" target="_blank">hospitalized</a>.</p>
<div id="46c06" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7228ba4ca4427c3a8fdf2167d93177a6"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1268386210373918725" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Hi. You're probably seeing this pinned tweet because cops are rioting nationwide and I'm trying to keep track
I'm… https://t.co/Smsc5G1NmQ</div> — T. Greg Doucette (@T. Greg Doucette)<a href="https://twitter.com/greg_doucette/statuses/1268386210373918725">1591241812.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The project is led by T. Greg Doucette, a criminal defense lawyer in North Carolina who produces the <a href="https://www.fsckemall.com/" target="_blank">podcast Fsck 'Em All</a>, which covers police conduct. In late May, he started posting videos of clashes between protestors and police to social media. Soon, people began sending him videos to post.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"I think 'avalanche' is probably an understatement," Doucette told <a href="https://time.com/5849839/police-brutality-george-floyd-protests-spreadsheet/" target="_blank">TIME</a>. "I've got close to 2,000 messages that I haven't even been able to open yet."</p><p>Doucette and his colleagues try to verify each video, such as by checking whether the media has covered an incident, or highlighting when videos show an incident from an additional vantage point. Most entries also contain commentary, such as: "police shoot out a dog walker's eye for sport."</p>
<div id="ab490" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="afaf47fc1f6fece98f1f6b5fc5a0e4f8"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1269637221868601346" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A Bronze Star recipient protested in Columbus and was pepper sprayed, tear gassed, run into by a bicycle cop and in… https://t.co/4QYOnXZhgp</div> — Tyler Buchanan (@Tyler Buchanan)<a href="https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/statuses/1269637221868601346">1591540077.0</a></blockquote></div><p>One of the people helping with the project is Jason Miller, a mathematician in California. Miller told TIME:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"[As] I've grown up and matured, I've moved out of Minneapolis and I've reflected on my relationship with race. I've seen how the culture in Minneapolis was not a healthy culture. [...] I wanted this information to be freely distributed, and free for people to see."</p><p>To be sure, it's not always clear what's happening in these videos, or what provoked a clash. What's more, it's likely that cops <em>technically </em>aren't breaking any laws in some of these incidents. After all, most police in the U.S. are given the power to use pepper spray, tear gas, batons, and non-lethal bullets against civilians who are "unlawfully" assembled.</p><p>The Austin Police Department's <a href="https://www.austintexas.gov/sites/default/files/files/Current_APD_Policy_Manual_2017-1.5_issued_7-20-2017.pdf" target="_blank">handbook</a>, for example, says that officers can use modified 12-gauge shotguns to shoot civilians with bean-bags if they need to "de-escalate a potentially deadly situation." (You can watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDDRlEeL1x4&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">an officer shooting Edwin Ayala</a> in the head and decide for yourself whether that officer faced a "potentially deadly situation.")</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM4MTYwMC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTU5ODQwNjQ4MH0.mT7C5yxFG1F-hb4JbqWTnZwLkTbhJgrdDzYi-YE8HUY/img.jpg?width=980" id="1b1a3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5441e6a6266eb4ca289d34a35c468ffc" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="George Floyd protestors in New York City" />Current And Former Mayor De Blasio And NYC Gov't Staffers Call On Mayor For Police Reform
Stephanie Keith / Getty
<p>It's also worth mentioning that hundreds of police officers <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/nypd-292-officers-injured-floyd-protests" target="_blank">have been injured</a> during protests and riots in recent weeks. In St. Louis, four officers were shot and one <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/charges-filed-in-murder-of-retired-st-louis-police-captain-david-dorn/article_3e95441e-4126-520b-9c41-fbbcbf889e6c.html" target="_blank">former police captain was killed</a>. In Oakland, two Federal Protective Service officers were shot during a protest; one was critically injured, the other died. And in New York City, nearly <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/nypd-292-officers-injured-floyd-protests" target="_blank">300 officers have been injured so far</a>, according to the NYPD. (It's unclear how extensive those injuries are.)</p> <p>Still, no police handbook calls for officers to pursue extralegal revenge on civilian crowds. And it seems safe to say that no public official would argue that police — no matter the circumstance — should be permitted to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpTCjIa4_C4&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">deliberately cover up their body cameras</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk9jMDK2ppk&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">pepper-spray protestors from behind as they're walking away</a>, or <a href="https://twitter.com/DonovanFarley/status/1269701897377603584/photo/2" target="_blank">chase down and beat reporters</a> for documenting the protests. </p> <p style="margin-left: 20px;">"What we're taught in school is that all power comes from the people; the people elect their representatives, the representatives hire the bureaucrats, the bureaucrats hire the cops" Doucette told TIME. "They're supposed to be at the bottom of the rungs of power, and instead we've inverted that upside down— where the police are openly declaring war on their own citizens, and the politicians are simply sitting there, diddling their phones, not doing anything."</p>
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