Can you still spread coronavirus after getting the vaccine?
The vaccine will shorten the "shedding" time.
03 March, 2021
Fredrik Lerneryd/Getty Images
Editor's note: So you've gotten your coronavirus vaccine, waited the two weeks for your immune system to respond to the shot and are now fully vaccinated.
<p><em>Does this mean you can make your way through the world like the old days without fear of spreading the virus? <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eNprtJEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Deborah Fuller is a microbiologist</a> at the University of Washington School of Medicine working on coronavirus vaccines. She explains what the science shows about transmission post-vaccination – and whether new variants could change this equation.</em></p><h2>1. Does vaccination completely prevent infection?</h2><p>The short answer is no. You can still get infected after you've been vaccinated. But your chances of getting seriously ill are almost zero.</p><p>Many people think vaccines work like a shield, blocking a virus from infecting cells altogether. But in most cases, a person who gets vaccinated is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/sterilizing-immunity">protected from disease, not necessarily infection</a>.</p><p>Every person's immune system is a little different, so when a vaccine is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/health/covid-vaccine-95-effective.html">95% effective</a>, that just means 95% of people who receive the vaccine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">won't get sick</a>. These people could be completely protected from infection, or they could be getting infected but remain asymptomatic because their immune system eliminates the virus very quickly. The remaining 5% of vaccinated people can become infected and get sick, but are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">extremely unlikely to be hospitalized</a>. </p><p>Vaccination doesn't 100% prevent you from getting infected, but in all cases it gives your immune system a huge leg up on the coronavirus. Whatever your outcome – whether complete protection from infection or some level of disease – you will be better off after encountering the virus than if you hadn't been vaccinated.</p><p> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An electron microscope scan of the coronavirus" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w"></a></p><p> Vaccines prevent disease, not infection. (<a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#/media/File:Novel_Coronavirus_SARS-CoV-2.jpg">National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a>)</p>
<h2>2. Does infection always mean transmission?</h2><p>Transmission happens when enough viral particles from an infected person get into the body of an uninfected person. In theory, anyone infected with the coronavirus could potentially transmit it. But a vaccine will reduce the chance of this happening.</p><p>In general, if vaccination doesn't completely prevent infection, it will significantly reduce the amount of virus coming out of your nose and mouth – a process called shedding – and shorten the time that you shed the virus. This is a big deal. A person who sheds less virus is <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccines-need-not-completely-stop-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less likely to transmit it to someone else</a>.</p><p>This seems to be the case with coronavirus vaccines. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251283" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">recent preprint study</a> which has yet to be peer reviewed, Israeli researchers tested 2,897 vaccinated people for signs of coronavirus infection. Most had no detectable virus, but people who were infected had one-quarter the amount of virus in their bodies as unvaccinated people tested at similar times post-infection.</p><p>Less coronavirus virus means less chance of spreading it, and if the amount of virus in your body is low enough, the probability of transmitting it may reach almost zero. However, researchers don't yet know where that cutoff is for the coronavirus, and since the vaccines don't provide 100% protection from infection, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that people continue to wear masks and social distance even <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">after they've been vaccinated</a>.</p>
<h2>3. What about the new coronavirus variants?</h2><p>New variants of coronavirus have emerged in recent months, and recent studies show that vaccines are less effective against certain ones, like <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-b1351-variant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the B1351 variant</a> first identified in South Africa.</p><p>Every time SARS-CoV-2 replicates, it gets new mutations. In recent months, researchers have found new variants that are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more infective</a> – meaning a person needs to breathe in less virus to become infected – and other variants that are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab082/6134354" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more transmissible</a> - meaning they increase the amount of virus a person sheds. And researchers have also found at least one new variant that seems to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251704" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">better at evading the immune system</a>, according to early data.</p><p>So how does this relate to vaccines and transmission?</p>
<p>For the South Africa variant, vaccines still provide <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/one-dose-covid-19-vaccine-offers-solid-protection-against-severe-disease" target="_blank">greater than 85% protection</a> from getting severely ill with COVID–19. But when you count mild and moderate cases, they provide, at best, only about <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00370-6/fulltext" target="_blank">50%-60% protection</a>. That means at least 40% of vaccinated people will still have a strong enough infection – and enough virus in their body – to cause at least moderate disease.</p><p>If vaccinated people have more virus in their bodies and it takes less of that virus to infect another person, there will be higher probability a vaccinated person could transmit these new strains of the coronavirus.</p><p>If all goes well, vaccines will very soon reduce the rate of severe disease and death worldwide. To be sure, any vaccine that reduces disease severity is also, at the population level, reducing the amount of virus being shed overall. But because of the emergence of new variants, vaccinated people still have the potential to shed and spread the coronavirus to other people, vaccinated or otherwise. This means it will likely take <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccines-need-not-completely-stop-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/" target="_blank">much longer for vaccines to reduce transmission</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00396-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for populations to reach herd immunity</a> than if these new variants had never emerged. Exactly how long that will take is a balance between how effective vaccines are against emerging strains and how transmissible and infectious these new strains are.</p><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-fuller-1207799" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deborah Fuller</a>, Professor of Microbiology, School of Medicine, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-washington-699" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">University of Washington</a></em></p><p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-vaccinated-people-still-spread-the-coronavirus-155095" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">original article</a>.</p>
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5 big predictions for 2021
A deeper appreciation for science and less unnecessary spending could be in our future.
28 December, 2020
Photo: olezzo / Adobe Stock
- The "Fauci effect" has helped produce a record number of medical school applications.
- We'll soon no longer be able to avoid the reality of climate change, prompting more decisive action.
- Work from home trends are likely to continue and, in many cases, become permanent.
<p>That was either the longest or shortest year in history. Most people are happy to say goodbye to 2020, but what does 2021 hold in store? Given how woefully inaccurate we were rolling into 2020, let's not be too sure of ourselves. That said, a few predictions can't hurt. Let's see what we can create.</p><p>These five predictions offer big-picture views of potential societal shifts in America. There are many other trends to take note of: Is this the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/movies/movie-theater-problems.html" target="_blank">beginning of the end</a> of the movie theater? Are <a href="https://skift.com/2020/06/02/can-flight-subscriptions-help-airlines-recover-from-an-unprecedented-drop-in-demand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">travel subscriptions</a> the future of tourism? Are millennials ready to <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/the-economist_currently-millennials-in-america-own-91trn-activity-6727156974930165760-IiSy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">step up and rule the world</a>? Will <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-google-to-face-new-antitrust-suits-in-u-s-11606742163" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">antitrust suits</a> finally put a dent in Big Tech? Will we finally have more women leaders in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-are-more-female-ceos-than-ever-and-many-of-them-are-in-retail-11606328235?mod=business_minor_pos1" target="_blank">C-level positions</a>? Given the <a href="https://www.themarysue.com/review-wonder-woman-1984/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">horror of Christmas Day</a>, is a third <em>Wonder Woman</em> really necessary?</p><p>Let's be honest: We don't know what's going to happen in January, much less the duration of 2021. We can consciously help shape the five trends below, however. Here's to a prosperous and progressive New Year. </p><h2>A deeper appreciation for science</h2><p>As we're well aware, the media focuses on the tragic and boisterous far too often, stories that consume the most oxygen and frighten us most. There's no indication that this will change; fear and uncertainty draw our attention, and <a href="https://econreview.berkeley.edu/paying-attention-the-attention-economy/" target="_blank">attention is its own economy</a>. Nowhere has this been more apparent than in coverage of the pandemic in America, which Brown University researchers showed to be <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-it-comes-to-coronavirus-u-s-media-coverage-is-far-more-negative-than-elsewhere-university-researchers-conclude-11606156163" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">far more pessimistic</a> than in any other nation. </p><p>While anti-vaxxers tend to grab headlines and dominate social media, there are signs that Americans appreciate medicine and science more than ever. The "<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/942170588/fauci-effect-drives-record-number-of-medical-school-applications" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Fauci effect</a>" has resulted in a record number of medical school applications being submitted this year. The intent to get a vaccine is <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">also rising</a>, up to 60 percent this month (one poll <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/health/covid-vaccine-hesitancy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">claims 73 percent</a>)—nowhere near the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa/fauci-says-herd-immunity-could-require-nearly-90-to-get-coronavirus-vaccine-idUSL1N2J411V" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">90 percent</a> Dr. Fauci says might be needed to reach herd immunity, but still moving in the right direction. </p>While many Americans are rightly suspicious of pharmaceutical companies—the rollout of these vaccines require transparency and accountability, as evidenced by <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/astrazeneca-vaccine" target="_self">problems with the Astra Zeneca trials</a>—the reason a vaccine was created in record time is due to good science. Consumers rarely complain when chip processors speed up their phones, which is how R&D is supposed to work. The same can be said for medicine: Researchers have more tools and knowledge at their disposal than ever. This is cause for cautious celebration, not fear-mongering.
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b1cf4a797b3571862980b4cadf39b219"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iTLssSIetq0?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><h2>A renewed focus on climate change</h2><p>Speaking of sucking all the oxygen out of the room, the last four years have been dominated by Trump. Coverage of climate change has been cut. That must change. The pandemic is a wake-up call that we're not as in control of nature as we thought, with one-third of the global population <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/temperature-climate-change-greenhouse-gas-niche-emissions-hot/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">predicted to become climate refugees</a> by 2070. </p><p>Climate change continues to ravage the planet even as we pay less attention. We're not going to have that option much longer, especially as warming temperatures and biodiversity loss <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-infectious-diseases" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">contribute to the proliferation of viruses</a>. </p><p>Interestingly, the congressional spending bill (currently being held up) includes key provisions to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/27/covid-relief-legislation-includes-major-climate-change-provisions/4012433001/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">help curb climate change</a>, including funding for carbon capture storage and a drawdown on HFCs. Joe Biden has vowed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/22/biden-climate-change/?arc404=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">make climate change an immediate focus</a> of his administration. He's staying true to his word by appointing key staff members to senior positions to address the environment on day one. </p><p>International businesses and governments are already addressing such issues: The first <a href="https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/Cities100-Milan-is-building-Italy-s-first-zero-carbon-social-housing-project?language=en_US#:~:text=A%20new%20social%20housing%20project,be%20built%20with%20green%20roofs.&text=One%20of%20its%20projects%20is,social%20housing%20project%20in%20Italy." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">zero-carbon social housing project</a> is underway in Italy while the Dutch government is <a href="https://www.domusweb.it/en/news/2020/09/08/replace-green-to-the-asphalt-the-plan-of-arnhem.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">replacing 10 percent of asphalt roads with green spaces</a> (more is planned). Here in America, engineers are creating <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/science/construction-concrete-bacteria-photosynthesis.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">concrete variants out of bacteria</a> in hopes of promoting more sustainable architecture. A marriage between public and private efforts is going to be needed. </p><h2>Letting go of the unnecessary</h2><p>As with climate change, <a href="https://unctad.org/news/covid-19-has-changed-online-shopping-forever-survey-shows" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">consumer spending is down</a> out of necessity more than desire. While online shopping is up since the pandemic began, overall average spending is down in food and beverages, digital entertainment, media and books, fashion, household products, and online education. The travel industry has been hit especially hard. </p>These trends have created even more outsized economic imbalances, with centibillionaires (people worth more than $100 billion) <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/944620768/theres-rich-and-theres-jeff-bezos-rich-meet-the-members-of-the-100-billion-club" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">adding trillions of dollars</a> to their already unimaginable wealth. For most, however, the pandemic has forced people to reconsider their spending habits by focusing only on the necessary. While the initial pain point of such an exercise is emotionally challenging, this is a net positive, especially given the fact that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/human-made-stuff-now-outweighs-all-life-on-earth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">man-made stuff now outweighs natural biomass</a>. Humans can't continue to produce so many goods without consequences; this spending slowdown is a wake-up call to that fact.
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTA1NTY0MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjI0OTQ2OX0.5LoYqZRkiSvMTc3nYVVRltd02ulGYoXIIMdppRNXsyI/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=1241%2C0%2C949%2C0&height=700" id="33d6d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bb27ede2b397f6770f39eb3de7c7b07d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />
Photo: dottedyeti / Adobe Stock
<h2>Remote working is our new reality</h2><p>The work-from-home (WFH) phenomenon has been expedited thanks to the pandemic. Now that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/half-the-labor-force-in-major-u-s-cities-is-working-from-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">half of the US labor force</a> is accustomed to remote work, it's going to be difficult to convince many employees of an imminent return to the office.</p><p>WFH is not without its challenges. The social aspect of many workplaces is irreplaceable; <a href="https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/psychological-exploration-zoom-fatigue" target="_blank">Zoom just doesn't cut it</a>. Social comforts aside, WFH is a positive trend in many aspects. Commercial real estate is <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-real-estate-coronavirus-173500793.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">taking a hit</a>—well, some cities are merely <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/miamis-commercial-real-estate-boom-picks-up-steam-amid-covid-pandemic.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">seeing a shift</a>, not an exodus—but benefits include no commute time (which has a positive impact on carbon emissions) and spending more time with your family. </p><p>Not every career will allow for WFH. Tech, finance, and media companies will allow continued WFH or at least flex time between home and office. Supply chain companies will have no such luck, at least not on the ground. For many businesses, it's up to C-level executives, with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-ceos-really-think-about-remote-work-11600853405" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">some believing that communing together</a> in a shared space is essential for the health of the company and others happy to save on office costs. The future of remote work will be decided on a case-by-case basis, but one thing is certain: More companies will choose to try out this model. </p><h2>Remembering that community matters</h2><p>In the most fractured time in modern history, will Americans come together? While there's no clear answer, we can hope. </p><p>"<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/19/style/loretta-ross-smith-college-cancel-culture.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Calling in</a>" is one sign that we're progressing. Instead of the famous (some would say infamous) trend of calling people out, women like Smith college professor Loretta J Ross are helping create a call-in culture. Instead of alienating people, they're looking to empower them. </p><p>This follows up decades of business research by Hungarian-American psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, who coined the terms "flow" and "flow states" in 1975. In his 2003 book, <em>Good Business</em>, he points out that managers are more successful in implementing better work habits when inspiring employees, not chastising them for flubbing a duty. Extrapolating from this research, we can apply such a mindset broadly. <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/mask-shaming" target="_blank">Shame certainly has a place in society</a>, just not as dominant a one as we currently believe. </p><p>This is no easy task in an age governed by quick trigger fingers on social media. That said, perhaps necessity will once again inspire us; many people are tired and frustrated by the constant bickering and call-outs. A time when everyone is called in is unlikely given our tribal nature, but any uptick in attempts of creating genuine community is worthwhile.</p><p> --</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His new book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
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How to have a constructive conversation with vaccine skeptics
Jonathan Berman wants us to have better dialogues.
21 December, 2020
Photo: AntonioDiaz / Adobe Stock
- In his book, "Anti-vaxxers," science educator Jonathan Berman aims to foster better conversations about vaccines.
- While the anti-vax movement in America has grown, more Americans now say they'll get a COVID-19 vaccine.
- In this Big Think interview, Berman explains why he's offering an ear to the anti-vax movement.
<p>As two COVID-19 vaccines roll out in America, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/" target="_blank">Pew Research reported</a> a rare glimmer of hope in the ongoing saga of vaccine disinformation: the number of citizens willing to get a vaccine increased to 60 percent. The trend is moving in the right direction, course-correcting anti-vaccination rhetoric that led to the <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/12-11-2020-worldwide-measles-deaths-climb-50-from-2016-to-2019-claiming-over-207-500-lives-in-2019" target="_blank">first increase in measles cases</a> (and the highest number of measles deaths) in the modern era.</p><p>While we have <a href="https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/anti-vaxx" target="_self">fabricated research</a> by disbarred doctor Andrew Wakefield to thank for this trend, anti-vaccination efforts are tethered to the first vaccinations. As with seemingly every topic, vaccines are a wedge issue, with a fervent cohort of anti-vaxxers going so far as to be "<a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-skelton-california-measles-vaccines-20190509-story.html" target="_blank">single-issue voters</a>."</p><p>Jonathan Berman, an assistant professor in the Department of Basic Sciences at NYITCOM-Arkansas, grew tired of seeing all of the "dunking on anti-vaxxers." As with many science advocates, he grew skeptical of the anti-vaxx movement while studying for his degree in the aughts. Though he agreed with Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens, he recognized them as bullies. Berman wanted to grapple with the underlying reasons for opposing vaccination rather than just write them off. </p><p>Those reasons, which comprise a chapter of his recent book, "<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/anti-vaxxers" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Anti-vaxxers: How to Challenge a Misinformed Movement</a>" (MIT Press), include issues of social class, race, individual liberties, individual and collective rights, distrust of authority, and changing ideas about health and medicine. Instead of exhibiting knee-jerk reactions, he wants to offer compassion and empathy while expressing critical thinking when analyzing the science of vaccines. As Berman recently explained of anti-vaxxers, </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"They're making a risk evaluation just like we're making a risk evaluation. They're doing it in a less reasonable and healthy way and arriving at the wrong decision. That doesn't mean that we have to call them stupid or act like they're foolish. It means we can have a conversation with them. Hopefully, that's a more productive way to go about it."</p>
Conspirituality 31 interview: Jonathan Berman
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="731bc6f3fa27b262f0e6cae7f8fb4bdd"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O-JyLRihIhE?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>As he wrote the book before the pandemic hit, Berman is a bit dismayed (though not surprised) by the growth of the anti-vaccine movement. He noticed a convergence point this year: anti-mask and anti-lockdown proponents (as well as QAnon devotees) learned a set of tactics from the longstanding anti-vax movement, while anti-vaxxers took the energy of "personal liberty" and "bodily sovereignty" being expressed by those groups.</p><p>There have been a number of anti-vax leaders whose star has risen this year: Mikki Willis has surged since the release of his <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/the-plandemic" target="_self">Plandemic</a> film; Del Bigtree, whose show "The Highwire" is in large part <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/meet-the-new-york-couple-donating-millions-to-the-anti-vax-movement/2019/06/18/9d791bcc-8e28-11e9-b08e-cfd89bd36d4e_story.html" target="_blank">funded by hedge fund managers</a>, is growing more influential; and gynecologist Christiane Northrup, who has used her <a href="https://conspirituality.net/transmissions/dear-dr-northrup/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">social media platforms</a> to promote QAnon-related and anti-vax sentiments, is also seeing a rise in followers. As Berman writes, celebrities are not the best sources of information, and their intentions might not be as benevolent as they seem. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"There's a degree of grift in what they're doing. They're collecting donations from their audience of anti-vaccine people they've built up."</p><p>Science sometimes suffers from lack of celebrity. Paul A. Offit will never be Neil deGrasse Tyson or Bill Nye. While a select few science educators break through, vaccination advocates are unlikely to achieve that level of star power. Berman, one of the founders of the "March for Science" movement—a rare mainstream moment of science advocacy in the Trump era—knows the difficulty of spreading the gospel of sound scientific methods.</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9f04e562d75f55e2fbafb81bbe4daad0"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tPMCoD1p-x8?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Navigating the tricky terrain of vaccines is difficult. Thankfully, Berman's excellent book offers hope. Twenty-two concise chapters pack a lot of punch: the history of both vaccines and the anti-vax movement; dangerous ploys by grifters; the science of vaccines; and a chapter on vaccine ingredients, like adjuvants. </p><p>While Berman is pro-vaccine, he believes Pfizer and Moderna <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/astrazeneca-vaccine" target="_blank">deserve scrutiny</a>. Commentary from outside organizations and researchers should be offered. That said, while pharmaceutical companies certainly have a track record of corporate greed, vaccines only account for 2 percent of profits—hardly cash cows like <a href="https://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/opioids-dont-treat-depression-yet-people-turn-to-them-anyway" target="_self">painkillers</a> and <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/depression-universal-basic-income" target="_self">antidepressants</a>. </p><p>Berman laughs off the occasional criticism that he's a paid shill. "I'm still on the negative on the book—just because of caffeine purchases while I was writing it."</p><p>Disinformation abounds in the modern era. Posts about the dangers of thimerasol and aluminum persist even though <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/technology/pfizer-vaccine-microchip.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">neither are in the Pfizer vaccine</a>. Berman advocates for pushing back against misinformation with better data. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The coronavirus vaccine—these are very simple formulations. There's salt, RNA, and a lipid to help the RNA cross cell membranes. If someone says there's aluminum in that, you can say, 'not in this one.' And if someone says there's mercury in that, you can say, 'not in this one.'"</p><p>He knows the challenges that lie ahead. Still, as Pew shows, more Americans understand the role that vaccines play in reaching a post-pandemic world. Berman concludes our talk on what you might say is a hopeful note. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We're not going to get everyone on board. We just need to get enough people on board."</p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His new book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
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Trial of a universal flu vaccine shows promise
The vaccine just passed its first clinical trials, but it has a long way to go.
08 December, 2020
Credit: David Ramos/Getty Images
- A new study has demonstrated the effectiveness of a potentially universal flu vaccine.
- By focusing on a nearly unchanging part of the virus, a single shot could be effective against a wide variety of strains.
- It will be at least another few years before you can get one.
<p> While there are insinuations that the flu is a mild disease not to be worried about, it is in fact a disease that kills hundreds of thousands a year and can cause a variety of complications. This is despite the existence of the yearly flu vaccine and the diseases' allegedly moderate symptoms. </p><p>One of the difficulties of preventing the flu lies in how diverse of a disease it is. Making matters worse, minor changes in the virus' genetic code, caused by random mutations, prevent long-term immunity. When a flu vaccine for the year is created, scientists have to predict which strains will be prominent that year. While they are often reasonably <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6907a1.htm?s_cid=mm6907a1_w" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">accurate</a>, sometimes they miss. When they do, the flu shot is less protective than it could be, and infection rates climb.</p><p>This also means that when a pandemic occurs, a vaccine against that particular strain must be created from scratch. As we've all seen with the case of COVID-19, the time spent doing this is very expensive in terms of lives. </p><p>A new study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1118-7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Nature Medicine </a>suggests that this problem may soon be one of the past, as a candidate for a universal flu shot, one effective against a wide variety of possible strains, has just passed its first clinical trials with flying colors.</p>
How the flu shot normally works
<p> The shot you received this year works by giving your body a weakened form of the flu virus and allowing your body to fight it off. A flu virion is a little ball with hemagglutinins (HA), stalks with rounded heads that latch on to cells, sticking out of them. A typical flu shot primes your body to recognize the head of this structure.</p><p>However, these heads change their form very frequently. Your body typically can't tell it's still the flu after these changes, and you need a new shot each year. This new vaccine candidate focuses on the HA's stalk, which changes far less often than the head. Since these stalks are similar for very many flu strains, it would also be quite effective against more than just the few which are currently included in a seasonal shot. </p>That seems like an obvious target for a vaccine. Why do we only have this now?
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ffiw6K3rjiU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> Our bodies tend to focus on the head when attacking a flu virus or learning about it from a vaccine. It can be challenging to make it focus on the stalk.</p><p>To get around this, the researchers in this study combined commonly seen stalks with bizarre heads taken from types of flu typically seen in birds. This odd flu strain, half-bird flu and half-human flu, would be like nothing the body has seen before. Notably, the immune system would notice the familiar stalk before it figured out the head was part of an invading virus. </p><p>As a result of this, the immune system attacked all parts of the virus and started making antibodies for attacking the stalk in the future. Blood was later taken from the test subjects who had the vaccine. The tests showed the vaccine had "induced remarkably high antistalk antibody titers." Mice injected with these antibodies and then infected with the flu showed better outcomes than those that merely got the flu, suggesting the antibodies continued effectiveness.</p><p>This is a very promising outcome. Dr. James Cherry, a vaccine expert and professor at the University of California, explained his appreciation of the study to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/experimental-flu-vaccine-could-last-years-early-results-show-n1250228" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NBC</a>: "I think this is a great first step. And I think it will be really the future of flu vaccines."</p>How soon can I get one?
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yXXC2MGivGE" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p>This study, while a very exciting success, was a small first-stage clinical trial. It will likely be another two years before larger scale, multiyear tests can be carried out to further demonstrate the vaccine's effectiveness. You're not going to be able to get this anytime soon. Issues of funding may also slow its development, as various groups are working on their own universal flu <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/innovative-universal-flu-vaccine-shows-promises-it-first-clinical-test" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccines</a>. </p><p>Additionally, the study focused on vaccines against viruses with a particular kind of HA stalk. More tests will be required to see if this works against flu strains with different stalks. However, lead author Florian Krammer argues that this is proof that "you can develop a vaccine strategy that produces stalk-reactive antibodies in humans."</p><p>While there is still a way to go, the possibility of a universal flu shot, effective against many flu strains that exist or may exist, is higher than ever.</p>
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How officials will ensure the COVID-19 vaccine stays cold enough in transit
Pfizer's vaccine needs to be kept at -100°F until it's administered. Can caregivers deliver?
03 December, 2020
Credit: Maksim Goncharenok from Pexels
- Fair distribution of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines is especially challenging because they need to be stored at extremely cold temperatures.
- Back in 2018, the WHO reported that over half of all vaccines are wasted worldwide due to lack of cold storage, and they were only talking about vaccines that need to be chilled or kept at standard freezer temperatures.
- Real-time logistics data, location tracking, and information about movements are crucial to track shipment progress, product temperature and other conditions.
<p>The recent good news about the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines has opened up a new set of COVID-19 challenges: how to distribute and administer the vaccine to billions of people worldwide. <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/vaccine-profits" target="_self">Successfully inventing</a> a vaccine, it seems, is just the beginning, even if health authorities were <a href="https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/covid-vaccine" target="_self">expecting its arrival</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://bigthink.com/Northwell-Health/health-disparities-coronavirus" target="_self">fair distribution</a> challenge is especially tricky because the vaccines need to be stored at extremely cold temperatures. The fat molecules which are the vehicle for the vaccine degrade swiftly at ambient temperatures. The Moderna vaccine needs to be kept at -4°F (-20°C), which is not much colder than the average freezer, but the Pfizer vaccine needs to be kept at -100°F (-70°C), at least until shortly before it's due to be administered. </p>
<p>Pfizer has developed special insulated boxes packed with dry ice that keep the vaccine cold for up to 10 days, as long as they are unopened. The boxes can then be opened and the dry ice replenished up to three times, every five days. </p>
<p>Any COVID-19 vaccine will only be effective if it's distributed widely and applied worldwide, but that includes areas with high temperatures, regions with poor infrastructure for storing the vaccine, and countries that are a long and complicated journey away from the factories where the vaccines are produced and the warehouses where they're kept.</p><p>In light of these obstacles, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/52d40ce8-4f6b-4068-8c48-b98fa0f7740b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deutsche Post DHL predicts</a> that two-thirds of the global population is unlikely to have easy access to cold chain COVID-19 vaccines. </p>
<p>Pharma companies, together with public health organizations worldwide, need to guarantee that the vaccine arrives safely and undamaged. That, in turn, will require accessing reliable data about whether vaccines have been compromised, so as to avoid administering useless vaccines and to increase confidence in a vaccine which already faces suspicion from the general public. </p>
<p>It has all the makings of a logistical nightmare.</p>
Cold chain logistics could make or break the magic bullet
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2MTU3OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNDM5MDY0OH0.fyg7n5tmvLPr3j0ZyZRLCUPPxLyKOHKuyip27uWpu9I/img.jpg?width=980" id="33fc2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="aa7232b11171da23dac492d27ffde7c2" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="5985" data-height="3367" />Credit: Artem Podrez from Pexels
<p>Ethical rules of fair distribution dictate that those who receive the first vaccines should be people who need it most, not the richest or most conveniently located. In the case of COVID-19, this includes healthcare workers, people who are elderly, immunocompromised or disabled, plus vulnerable populations on the poverty line, in prison, or in homeless shelters.</p> <p>This is easier said than done. Regional health care facilities are often located several hours from the nearest transportation hub city. Many American nursing homes are high-risk locations but are geographically isolated in rural areas, and some of the poorest communities are scattered across rural counties. </p> <p>"Rural midwestern states are current hot spots for COVID-19 infections, and those numbers will only worsen as temperatures continue to drop," <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/10/22/vaccine-transporters-feel-unprepared-for-the-distributive-effort-ahead/?sh=5863cf725102" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">said William A Haseltine</a>, a former professor at the Harvard School of Public Health. "Getting vaccines to rural Americans in these states is imperative, but damaging some vaccines in transit seems more of a likelihood than a possibility." </p> <p>Additionally, many of the world's most vulnerable populations cannot afford to pay for COVID-19 vaccines, which means public health bodies, which have already run-down budgets during the pandemic, will have to bear the brunt of the costs. </p> <p>The same hurdles apply to poorer nations with low or non-existent health budgets, which still deserve an equal supply of the vaccine. Once Pfizer's "cold boxes" are opened, thousands of injections will need to be administered, even in sparsely populated areas, in order to ensure nothing goes to waste, and four weeks later, the process will need to be repeated for a second dose.</p>Chilling truths for many sectors
<p>Public health organizations can't afford to waste vaccines, but they also can't afford expensive storage solutions. Deep freezers that can store the vaccine at -80°F or lower are too expensive for rural hospitals, plus the U.S. is facing a shortage of such freezers, even as manufacturers are scrambling to speed up production and shipment carriers scramble to outfit their containers. </p> <p>"In this financial environment, you can imagine that there is simply no consideration of rural hospitals purchasing storage equipment for this ultra-cold distribution," <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/11/rural-hospitals-cant-afford-freezers-to-store-pfizer-covid19-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">noted</a> National Rural Health Association CEO Alan Morgan.</p> <p>Back in 2018, the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/the-biggest-hurdle-to-universal-vaccination-might-just-be-a-fridge" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WHO reported</a> that over half of all vaccines are wasted worldwide due to lack of cold storage, and they were only talking about vaccines that need to be chilled or kept at standard freezer temperatures. </p> <p>Few states in the U.S. are equipped to meet the cold chain challenge. Washington State's health department doesn't have a way to store Pfizer vaccine at a cold enough temperature. Many newer EU member states are in a similar position, along with much of South America, Africa, and Asia. States such as Arizona, North Dakota, and Oregon include large rural communities, tribal lands, and migrant communities, none of whom are easily reachable. </p> <p>If public health bodies are unable to store the vaccine for longer periods of time, the onus rests on cold chain logistics to deliver it within a shorter period of time.</p>Improved logistics data can play a role
<p>Shipping companies need the ability to transport vaccine batches swiftly, with transparent tracking, to their final destinations, if they're going to be trusted to supply rural and hard-to-reach areas.</p> <p>"Cold chain logistics isn't just a matter of profit and loss. It can mean the difference between life and death for communities and individuals who are relying on vaccines and pharma products to arrive in their original condition," explained Janne Juhala, CEO of Logmore, via email. A supply chain condition analytics company, Logmore <a href="https://venturebeat.com/2020/11/25/logmore-launches-first-logistics-monitor-designed-for-covid-19-vaccine-delivery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">is launching</a> a new product, Logmore Dry Ice, to help efforts to protect the COVID-19 vaccine in transit. </p> <p>Real-time logistics data, location tracking, and information about movements are crucial to track shipment progress, product temperature and other conditions. For example, transport companies need to know if a shipment has been exposed to the sun, or get alerts to change the dry ice. </p> <p>Pharma companies require this data so they can <a href="https://www.pharmasalmanac.com/articles/anticipating-the-logistics-of-a-covid-19-vaccination-effort" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">quickly rescue delayed vaccine shipments</a> before they spoil, while accurate notifications that a shipment has been compromised enables public health authorities to rely on the integrity of the vaccine. </p>The logistics industry is preparing for its biggest challenge
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2MTU4MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzODA5ODczOX0.XyuPVNRuQUuSdAHJ78rAVxu7indqel9q9qbfytO2Rxo/img.jpg?width=980" id="49614" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2656c4a329ec9435aae6d11427831e7e" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="3840" data-height="2160" />Credit: Artem Podrez from Pexels
<p>At first glance, the outlook is bleak. The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) and Pharma.Aero, a cross-industry consortium focused on reliable end-to-end air transportation for pharmaceutical shippers, surveyed airlines, freight forwarders, ground handlers, airport operators and solution providers about their preparedness for vaccine distribution, and found that only <a href="https://www.pharmaceuticalcommerce.com/latest-news/air-transport-groups-find-a-concerning-lack-of-readiness-for-covid-19-vaccine-logistics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">28 percent are prepared</a>. </p> <p>The good news is that everyone involved is working flat-out to change that statistic. Air freight companies are converting passenger planes to cargo-only, increasing air transport capacity by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-calls-for-supply-chain-collaboration-logistics-chief-says-11603713612" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">25 percent to 50 percent</a> over the last six months. </p> <p>Logistics companies are buying freezers as fast as possible and manufacturers are speeding up freezer production. UPS <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/ups-readies-freezer-farms-to-ship-virus-vaccine-if-we-get-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">announced construction</a> of a "freezer farm" in Louisville, Kentucky; FedEx already invested in freezers during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic; and Kuehne + Nagel International AG, a Switzerland-based warehousing and distribution company, has established coolers at 230+ distribution sites. </p> <p>Another concern is the global shortage of dry ice needed to keep the vaccines cool. Dry ice is made from CO2, a by-product of ethanol production, which dropped in line with gasoline consumption due to stay-at-home orders. But delivery companies are preparing for that too; FedEx has installed dry ice machines, and UPS is considering adding them. </p> <p>Private logistics companies can only take us so far, though.</p>Global cooperation is vital
<p>Global planning and cooperation is vital to plan the timing of vaccine shipments, so that they are not ruined by air or land freight delays; ensure they aren't held up by needless paperwork in a transit country; and protect vaccines from being seized and redirected. </p> <p>"The partners have to collaborate," <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-calls-for-supply-chain-collaboration-logistics-chief-says-11603713612" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">said Detlef Trefzger</a>, CEO of global shipping concern Kuehne + Nagel. "If you don't… you might run into a capacity shortage or equipment shortage."</p> <p>TIACA and Pharma.aero called for air cargo stakeholders to collaborate to map storage capabilities and accelerate roll out of digital tracking and monitoring systems, and on governments, customs authorities, and border agencies to remove barriers to movement of COVID-19 vaccines. International organizations also need to work together to build cold chain capacity in developing countries. </p> <p>Logmore's Juhala echoed this sentiment. "Logistics companies can only take matters so far. With the COVID vaccine specifically, the world is relying on effective communication with government bodies and public health organizations," he said, "so having verifiable data about the conditions of each shipment adds a much-needed layer of accountability."</p>When times get tough, the tough get going
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2MTU4My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyODY2NjA1MX0.9Dc8d3nLCF6fBMetIkGKZle8SFLyDv76oUj8ZW-c-UA/img.jpg?width=980" id="ef3be" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ea587f91a0394c1624dd63b835885807" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="6543" data-height="4362" />Credit: Maksim Goncharenok from Pexels
<p>The obstacles in the way of COVID-19 vaccine distribution are undeniable, but everyone involved is confident that they can be overcome.</p> <p>Amy Maxmen, who covered the Ebola pandemic for Nature, <a href="https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1326715250268385285" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pointed out</a> that in 2018 the Democratic Republic of Congo distributed the Ebola vaccine even though it too required deep cold storage. </p> <p>Although the coronavirus vaccines that have passed trial so far need specific and precise storage conditions, and many of those who need it most are difficult to reach, logistics companies and public health bodies are gearing up together to make it happen. With vigilant monitoring, investment in freight infrastructure and careful strategic planning, we just might see the end of COVID-19 in 2021. </p>
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