By 2050, there may be more plastic than fish in the sea.
- 2050 is predicted to be a bleak milestone for the oceans - but it's not too late to avert disaster.
- Here are 10 actions the world can take to strengthen and preserve our oceans for generations to come.
Their goal is a digital model of the Earth that depicts climate change in all of its complexity.
- The European Union envisions an ambitious digital twin of the Earth to simulate climate change.
- The project is a unique collaboration between Earth science and computer experts.
- The digital twin will allow policymakers to audition expansive geoengineering projects meant to address climate change.
Who are the planet-builders?<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDMzMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzOTA0NzY2MH0.yG8KyIXYBtiAQB0_9KJLPFhvOj2ZvpBy04YPffMIEJM/img.jpg?width=980" id="4548e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="61d5c1e9765e8d98ef2dab9cb2bf01a6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="833" />
Watching time go by on the digital Earth<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDMzNi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNTIyNzQ5MX0.NrXxzMuA8NcrcSIaCivN3zRlsc-KgVpYiecDlLKN4Mw/img.jpg?width=980" id="b1bcf" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="aff8d7380cd18b8ee15a8f772d83a7a8" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="988" />
Credit: Logan Armstrong/Unsplash<p>The basic idea of the digital twin is that it will allow scientists to observe climate change in motion as it progresses. "If you are planning a two-meter high dike in The Netherlands, for example," says Bauer in an ETH press release, "I can run through the data in my digital twin and check whether the dike will in all likelihood still protect against expected extreme events in 2050."</p><p>Most important will be trying out geo-engineering ideas and seeing how they track over time. The press release specifically notes the value the twin will bring to "strategic planning of fresh water and food supplies or wind farms and solar plants." </p>
Aging models and AI<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDM0Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NjM3Njc3Mn0.7Dm8rcv_bcHSvKlxIvaQ3wu3pC3wjKbWeScQ_nQyLlA/img.jpg?width=980" id="be2db" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8dacb34d559e79cded0443dbd88c84d3" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="720" />
Credit: ECMWF<p>Capturing the subtleties and intricacies of our planet faithfully in order to model plausible outcomes is going to require an equally complex computer model. Construction of the digital Earth begins with the refinement of current weather models, with a goal of eventually being able to simulate conditions in as small an area as a kilometer. Current models are not nearly as fine-grained, a shortcoming that hampers their ability to make accurate predictions given that the large weather systems are really aggregates of many smaller meteorological systems influencing each other.</p><p>The authors of the paper assert that today's meteorological models fall far short of what's possible, their development having basically become stuck in place about a decade ago. They say that current models take advantage of only about 5 percent of today's available processing power. The solution is the tight collaboration between Earth scientists and computer scientists at the heart of Destination Earth to develop cutting-edge models.</p><p>The twin will also be able to take advantage of rapidly advancing developments in artificial intelligence. Obviously, AI is very good at detecting patterns in large amounts of data. The study anticipates multiple roles for AI here, including the promotion of operational efficiency with new ways of accurately representing physical processes, as well as the development of novel data-compression strategies.</p>
A massive endeavor<p> The team will feed the twin massive amounts of weather data—as well as data regarding human activity—to get the digital planet going and then continually as new data emerge, making the model more and more complex and more and more accurate. </p><p> At full scale, a digital twin of an entire planet would require a suitably massive amount of horsepower. The authors of the study propose a system with 20,000 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphics_processing_unit" target="_blank">GPUs</a> that will require 20 megawatts to run. And since the ultimate goal is to help the Earth and not make things worse, they say they'd like to site its digital twin in an area power from a CO<sup>2</sup>-netural electrical source. </p>
In May 2018, the city of Paris set an ambition to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
- Countries, governments and companies are aligning on a need for net-zero - and this is an opportunity to rethink decarbonizing our cities.
- There is no "one-size-fits-all" solution – each city's needs must be at the heart of developing integrated energy solutions.
- A city can only decarbonize through collaboration between government, the private sector, and local communities.
Surprising as it may seem, we are all very good at denial. Negation, however, is a different phenomena.
- What makes a person espouse an ideology so intensely as to negate the reality of well-established facts? Perhaps the differences between negation and denial can help us understand.
- Negation looks to the past, while denial looks to the present and future. We negate a historical fact and we deny the reality in front of us. Negation involves a conscious choice to lie, even if it involves the suffering of millions. Denial is subtler and, surprisingly, we all do it.
- Climate change conflates both negation and denial. Hopefully, understanding why will spur more into action, as we choose to become heroes of a new anti-denialist narrative.
Trump supporters lined the street on President's Day to show support for him after his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden.
Credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images<p>We can thus begin to see why so many people in the US have chosen to deny the reality of the Biden-Harris election, or that masks and social distancing are essential tools to beat the pandemic. When ex-president Trump claimed that there was a plot to steal the election from him, he positioned himself as the hero-martyr, the victim of a destructive plot that was after him and, by proxy, also after everyone who supported him. He used the old trick of galvanizing a visceral group response by creating a fake reality that bundles people together in a single cause: he made his followers into heroes fighting for freedom. The no-mask using is a clear illustration of how far this identification of "fighting for freedom" can go, even to the denial of the obvious danger of dying from COVID. This shows that our symbolic allegiance is more powerful than the physical. No wonder so many people are ready to "die for a cause," often with tragic consequences.</p><p>Deniers find force in their cohort, energizing each other and relying on group dynamics to find companionship and strength. Tragically, by forcing our physical separation in lockdowns, the pandemic worked as a catalyst to the deniers, their perceived "loss of freedom" bringing them closer together to the point of making them all believe in the heroic dream of a power takeover. The attack on the Capitol on January 6th is the epitome of denialism in modern America, from both sides of the aisle: the perpetrators who marched and pillaged and those who failed to read the obvious signs of mounting danger, denying the reality in front of them.</p>
Science denial — or is it science negation? A protest banner set up in front of the Republican National Convention Headquarters on August 24, 2020, in Washington, DC.
A warming Arctic Circle could be responsible for bursts of cold weather in the south.
- Winter Storm Uri brought snow and freezing temperatures to Texas this week, causing multiple deaths and damage to infrastructure.
- Climate scientists have spent years exploring the relationship between extreme winter weather and warming temperatures in the Arctic Circle.
- Some studies suggest that the warming Arctic disrupts a natural phenomenon known as the polar vortex, which normally contains cold air in the north.
Credit: NOAA/Weather.gov<p>Although <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9?ftag=YHF4eb9d17&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplink#Sec9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">some studies</a> suggest relationships between the warming Arctic and increased winter storms, scientists still aren't exactly sure how Arctic climate change might be reshaping winters around the world. For example, the polar vortex is a natural phenomenon, and so some of its fluctuations could be attributed to natural variability. What's more, other factors, like changes to Arctic atmosphere and sea ice, might also play a role.</p>
Credit: NOAA<p>Given the complexity of climate systems, it's difficult for scientists to determine how changing temperatures in one region may affect weather patterns in another. But that's not to say they're all in complete disagreement. A 2020 paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0662-y.epdf?author_access_token=eLgfI7iZmZLsMW775QthR9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MYzE9Z0SoI_C-IWctwpzcpJoMtrmTeySa6t6ounUhExER4H2IzZbQRlhcKP0j1EKTcnJMsJOaPFkUmhXTiRXfQTD2jBRU5Z1oLGfp65qXkXA%3D%3D" target="_blank">Nature</a>, for example, commented on the "divergent consensuses" between various observational and model studies on the topic of Arctic warming and severe winter weather.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The divide on the influence of Arctic change has contributed to the impression that this research topic is controversial and lacking consensus," the authors wrote. "An alternative interpretation is that the wide range of results should be expected, owing to the varying approaches to studying the problem and the complexity and intermittency of Arctic/midlatitude connection."</p><p>While scientists continue to study the relationship between the Arctic and weather patterns across the globe, other climate trends are relatively clear. </p><p>The average surface temperature of the planet has risen about 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century, warming at a rate nearly 10 times faster than the planet did after the Ice Age, according to <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/" target="_blank">NASA</a>. And despite warmer temperatures, the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/climate-change-and-extreme-snow-us" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NOAA reports</a> that the U.S. was hit by nearly twice the amount of extreme winter storms during the later half of the 20th century than the first. </p>