Researchers make the case for "deep evidential regression."
- MIT researchers claim that deep learning neural networks need better uncertainty analysis to reduce errors.
- "Deep evidential regression" reduces uncertainty after only one pass on a network, greatly reducing time and memory.
- This could help mitigate problems in medical diagnoses, autonomous driving, and much more.
Credit: scharsfinn86 / Adobe Stock<p>On the road, 1 percent could be the difference between stopping at an intersection or rushing through just as another car runs a stop sign. Amini and colleagues wanted to produce a model that could better detect patterns in giant data sets. They named their solution "deep evidential regression."</p><p>Sorting through billions of parameters is no easy task. Amini's model utilizes uncertainly analysis—learning how much error exists within a model and supplying missing data. This approach in deep learning isn't novel, though it often takes a lot of time and memory. Deep evidential regression estimates uncertainty after only one run of the neural network. According to the team, they can assess uncertainty in both input data <em>and</em> the final decision, after which they can either address the neural network or recognize noise in the input data.</p><p>In real-world terms, this is the difference between trusting an initial medical diagnosis or seeking a second opinion. By arming AI with a built-in detection system for uncertainty, a new level of honesty with data is reached—in this model, with pixels. During a test run, the neural network was given novel images; it was able to detect changes imperceptible to the human eye. Ramini believes this technology can also be used to pinpoint <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/13/what-are-deepfakes-and-how-can-you-spot-them" target="_blank">deepfakes</a>, a serious problem we must begin to grapple with.</p><p>Any field that uses machine learning will have to factor in uncertainty awareness, be it medicine, cars, or otherwise. As Amini says, </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Any user of the method, whether it's a doctor or a person in the passenger seat of a vehicle, needs to be aware of any risk or uncertainty associated with that decision."</p><p>We might not have to worry about alien robots turning on us (yet), but we should be concerned with that new feature we just downloaded into our electric car. There will be many other issues to face with the emergence of AI in our world—and workforce. The safer we can make the transition, the better. </p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His new book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
A heated debate is occurring at the University of Miami.
- Students say they were identified with facial recognition technology after a protest at the University of Miami; campus police claim this isn't true.
- Over 60 universities nationwide have banned facial recognition; a few colleges, such as USC, regularly use it.
- Civil rights groups in Miami have called for the University of Miami to have talks on this topic.
Arthur Holland Michel: The Future of Surveillance Technology<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8c330ab8c4df396f5313be796c0d96da"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hIC-kaYcq34?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Americans don't always agree with that assessment, especially on college campuses. Over 60 universities—Harvard, MIT, and UCLA are on the list—have banned facial recognition. Of the few schools that utilize it, USC lets students enter their rooms via face scans; the software also ensures intruders cannot access buildings.</p><p>These are great uses of this technology. You could argue it's how any progress with our devices should work: in service of people. The problem, of course, is that those in power don't tend to stop when they have a little taste of the possibilities.</p><p>University of Miami is the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/10/27/human-rights-groups-call-on-the-university-of-miami-to-ban-facial-recognition/#a11c8bf2965a" target="_blank">latest school</a> to be embroiled in a battle over facial recognition. The ACLU of Florida was joined by 21 other groups when requesting that the university hold an open forum so that students can express their concerns. A piece of their letter is below. </p><p>This call for action was inspired after a September incident in which students <a href="https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/university-of-miami-tracked-protesters-with-video-surveillance-11712139" target="_blank">protested</a> returning for in-person classes during the pandemic. The students, concerned about their health, predominantly wore face masks. Still, a number of them were identified, leading to concerns that facial recognition was used. Campus police denied it—the chief even claimed the tech "doesn't work," though that notion <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/tech/face-recognition-masks/index.html" target="_blank">has been refuted</a>—yet civil liberties groups are worried that an invasion of privacy occurred.</p><p>Lia Holland, a member of the digital rights nonprofit <a href="https://www.fightforthefuture.org/news/2020-10-27-20-human-rights-organizations-call-on-university-of-miami-to-ban-facial-recognition-and-meet-f6f2119fd41b/" target="_blank">Fight for the Future</a>, wants answers from school administrators. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"UMiami is struggling to answer to their creepy surveillance practices, and clarify whether they are using their own facial recognition system, or Florida's state facial recognition database."</p>
Credit: Pixel Shot / Adobe Stock<p>The police chief in question, David Rivero, claims overhead surveillance cameras provided identification at the protest. Yet speaking of another case involving facial-recognition software, he's <a href="https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/university-of-miami-tracked-protesters-with-video-surveillance-11712139" target="_blank">on the record stating</a>, "We were able to [easily] identify and arrest him. We've [detected] a few bad guys that way."</p><p>The letter sent to the Board of Administrators <a href="https://www.fightforthefuture.org/news/2020-10-27-20-human-rights-organizations-call-on-university-of-miami-to-ban-facial-recognition-and-meet-f6f2119fd41b/" target="_blank">includes the following demands</a>: </p><ol><li>Issue a campus-wide policy banning non-personal use of facial recognition technology, and issue a statement that you have done so.</li><li>Immediately schedule an open forum with students and faculty/staff to discuss community concerns and clarify how student activists who participated in First Amendment protected protest activities were identified by campus police.</li><li>Immediately schedule a meeting with the UMiami Employee Student Alliance (UMESA) to address their COVID-19 safety concerns, the subject of the original protest.</li></ol><p>There's no doubt facial-recognition technology has a place in law enforcement. Victims of unsolved crimes are relieved when the perpetrators are brought to justice, regardless of the means. As Michel writes, some police forces are already surveilling large regions of their districts using the Gorgon Stare, a camera used from airplanes. Cameras are ubiquitous, and that's not going to change. </p>As a society, we need honest discussions regarding the application of surveillance. Nearly every citizen in China has <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/in-china-facial-recognition-public-shaming-and-control-go-hand-in-hand/" target="_blank">already been logged</a> by facial recognition software, which has led to human rights abuses. While the stated intention of this tech by American police is pure, good intentions are known to pave the way...well, we know how that ends. <p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His new book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
Confirmation bias is baked into the DNA of America, but it may soon be the nation's undoing.
- From America's inception, there has always been a rebellious, anti-establishment mentality. That way of thinking has become more reckless now that the entire world is interconnected and there are added layers of verification (or repudiation) of facts.
- As the great minds in this video can attest, there are systems and mechanisms in place to discern between opinion and truth. By making conscious efforts to undermine and ignore those systems at every turn (climate change, conspiracy theories, coronavirus, politics, etc.), America has compromised its position of power and effectively stunted its own growth.
- A part of the problem, according to writer and radio host Kurt Andersen, is a new media infrastructure that allows for false opinions to persist and spread to others. Is it the beginning of the end of the American empire?
Grandfathers, take heart. You'll survive the paradox that's been gunning for you since the 1930s.
A paradox primer<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ1MzcyOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwNjgyOTE3Mn0.sdkQ7EF5R2l1zED3BzbpcNG6FFy5Rf1OjqS9u5RC1JU/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C75%2C0%2C75&height=700" id="03234" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9ca569af0bbe83100698d67202e4bcbf" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
According to the study, the universe would have worked things out whether Marty stole credit for "Johnny B. Goode" or not.
(Photo: Universal Studios)<p>The classic temporal thought experiment is known as <a href="https://www.space.com/grandfather-paradox.html#:~:text=The%20grandfather%20paradox%20is%20a%20potential%20logical%20problem%20that%20would,make%20their%20own%20birth%20impossible." target="_blank">the grandfather paradox</a>. It goes like this: Imagine you decide to go back in time to kill your grandfather. Yes, his election-year posts have been that embarrassing. You travel back and kill him before he conceives one-half of your parents. But then, how is it you can exist to go back and kill him? But if you don't exist, then who killed your grandfather? <a href="https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/neil-degrasse-tyson-explains-the-strange-paradoxes-of-time-travel" target="_self">Paradox</a>. The timeline is no longer self-consistent. (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XayNKY944lY" target="_blank">Maybe</a>.)</p><p>You can play this game with most time traveling tales. In "<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088763/" target="_blank" style="">Back to the Future</a>," Marty travels back in time and interferes with his parents' dalliance, preventing himself from being born. But if Marty is never born, how does he interfere with his parents' dalliance? But if he can't interfere, what's preventing him from being born? And round we go.</p><p>One would think such worries limited to high-minded philosophy debates or low-brow movie riffs. But some solutions to Einstein's field equations allow time travel through <a href="https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/did-einstein-prematurely-reject-godels-universe/#:~:text=A%20closed%20timelike%20curve%20is,encounter%20the%20same%20event%20again." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">closed timelike curves</a>. These theoretical paths would allow someone to be present at an initial event, travel through space and time, and return to that event again. Think a spacetime loop-the-loop. Importantly, the return point is not a repeat of the initial event. It is the initial event.</p><p>The implications of closed timelike curves lead to all sorts of wild time travel scenarios. <a href="https://bigthink.com/dr-kakus-universe/is-time-travel-possible" target="_self">According to physicist Michio Kaku</a>, these have included traveling through a wormhole, through a spinning black hole, around an infinitely-long spinning cylinder, and around two colliding cosmic strings.</p>
The universe is a self-regulating Time Lord<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ1MzczNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTQ2NTA3Mn0.QawOiC0smajTijNpoJbY1UsnB4VhoRGds5swcKdowW8/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C51%2C0%2C51&height=700" id="d0230" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="93e944fc3f902cadf33e6e7211efc84d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Dr. Fabio Costa (left) and Germain Tobar (right) discuss their findings. Behind them, a process function (w) interacts with localized spacetime regions with closed timelike curves.
Credit: University of Queensland<p>With time travel on the theoretical table, Tobar Germain, a University of Queensland undergraduate, wanted to test its consistency. Is paradox-free time travel mathematically possible? To answer that question, he teamed up with Dr. Fabio Costa, a University of Queensland physicist, to crunch the numbers.</p><p>"Some physicists say it is possible, but logically, it's hard to accept because that would affect our freedom to make any arbitrary action," Tobar said <a href="https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/09/young-physicist-squares-numbers%E2%80%99-time-travel" target="_blank">in a release</a>. "It would mean you can time travel, but you cannot do anything that would cause a paradox to occur."</p><p>According to their research, time travel can be consistent and free of logical paradoxes. However, that requires the outputs of all but two space-time regions to be fixed. In that case, despite the presence of closed timelike loops, entities can maintain their freedom of choice without resulting in a paradox.</p><p>"The maths checks out, and the results are the stuff of science fiction," Costa said in the same release.</p><p>To illustrate their findings, Tobar and Costa offer a thought experiment straight out of science fiction. Imagine you travel through time to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. You locate and quarantine patient zero. Mission (and paradox) accomplished, right? Not according to their research. The math suggests that temporal events would adjust to being logically consistent with any action you made. For example, you may catch the virus, become patient zero, and spread the pandemic anyway. </p><p>Therefore, future, erm, past you still has the stimulus that sent you back in time initially.</p><p>"No matter what you did, the salient events would just recalibrate around you," Tobar said. "That would mean that—no matter your actions—the pandemic would occur, giving your younger self the motivation to go back and stop it.</p><p>"The range of mathematical processes we discovered show that time travel with free will is logically possible in our universe without any paradox."</p>
Riding the timelike curve?<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="26aeff2dbb93f6414170073a6f60c870"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6yMiUq7W_xI?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Of course, sayings paradox-free time travel is mathematically consistent is a wildly different statement than saying it is practically possible. Even if you could take the plunge into <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-chronology-protection/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a wormhole</a>, there's a good chance you'd be crushed out of existence before reaching the other end. Souped-up DeLorean or no. </p><p>It all depends on how the <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/physicist-radical-theory-of-gravity" target="_self">laws of quantum gravity</a> shake out, and physicists are still exploring that very open question. What about those other scenarios Kaku pointed out? In <a href="https://bigthink.com/dr-kakus-universe/is-time-travel-possible-part-ii" target="_self">a follow-up article</a>, he points out that none can be realized using known physical mechanisms.</p><p>So, while we may be the time lords of the whiteboard, the universe will be a one-way street for the foreseeable future.</p>
Techshot's 3D BioFabrication Facility successfully printed human heart tissue aboard the International Space Station.
All that's fit to bioprint<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ0MTc4OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NjUyMTkxN30.c02tUlYJLxdekTGR5ExOagL2Sh-5rmWN6pYkqger920/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C210%2C0%2C210&height=700" id="549d0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="681571f2317ce5f65b105b6fb5aabd51" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="Dr. Eugene Boland" />
Dr. Eugene Boland, Techshot's chief scientist, presents the 3D BioFabrication Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Florida
A heart from your new BFF<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1fa24e6ada521bcdac46de275c37f2da"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p_hauPqouH8?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>In partnership with <a href="https://www.nscrypt.com/about-us/" target="_blank">nScrypt</a>, Techshot developed the BFF to manufacture human tissue in space. In July 2019, they launched the bioprinter aboard the SpaceX CRS-18 cargo mission to be delivered to the International Space Station. There, it was loaded up with nerve, muscle, and vascular bioinks. As the BFF pinned the cells together in a culturing cassette, generating layers several times thinner than a human hair, the microgravity environment ensured the low-viscosity structure kept together. That's courtesy of the same surface tension property that allows for those <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_qPWZbxFl8" target="_blank">moving water spheres astronauts love to play with</a>.</p><p>"So, now you can have a vascular cell where you want a blood vessel to be, the nerve cell where you want the nerve to pass through, and muscle cells where you need a muscle bundle to be," Boland said. "All of those will stay where you put them in three-dimensions and then grow and mature where you want them."</p><p>A non-cellular ink was added to the mix to provide a bit of framework and prevent cells from sliding around during the printing process. But because Earth's gravity had less pull, this framework didn't need to be as ridged as terrestrial scaffolding. This non-cellular ink was water-soluble, meaning it could be washed away after the printing was complete. The end result, a more natural fabrication of human tissue.</p><p>Once 25 percent of the cells needed for the mature tissue were in place, the cell-culturing cassette was moved to another payload, the Advanced Space Experiment Processor (ADSEP). There, the cells lived and grew as they would naturally. Fully differentiated cells signaled to the adult stems cells that they should be heart cells. The stem cells grew and multiplied, supported by the nutrients provided in the ink. A few weeks later and the cassette was home to human heart tissue.</p><p>This January, <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/success-3d-bioprinter-in-space-prints-with-human-heart-cells-300982759.html" target="_blank">Techshot announced</a> the BFF had cultured successful test prints aboard the ISS. These heart prints measured 30 mm long by 20 mm wide by 12.6mm high. In a follow-up experiment, the BFF also manufactured <a href="https://techshot.com/techshot-successfully-completes-knee-cartilage-test-prints-in-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">test prints of a partial human knee meniscus</a>, the soft cartilage that acts as a shock absorber between your shinbone and thighbone.</p>
The future of medicine is in space?<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ0MTc5MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MjQwODUxOH0.VAg1FIZkGz_IOCaGUAHxylX1h44qA2-tk-9odXPoLT0/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C118%2C0%2C118&height=700" id="18054" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="932d3caca0897797883d941a6255885e" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
NASA Astronaut Jessica Meir prepares Techshot's cell-culturing cassettes for their return trip to Earth.
Credit: NASA Johnson/Flickr<p>For its next run, Techshot wants to improve the cell-culturing cassette, refining conditions and more effectively flushing out trapped air. Its researchers are also looking into making cells in orbit. Then there is the process of scaling up from test prints to functioning tissue pieces (say, heart patches) to fully operational organs. Then there are the challenges of space flight and <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/3d-printing-body-parts" target="_self">the long road of regulation</a>.</p><p>"We're dedicated to the long haul here," Boling said during our interview. "We have agreements with NASA that permit us to iterate and fly-and-try to continue and improve. We brought the BFF and ADSEP back from the space station late summer to make those improvements based on what we have learned so we can send it back up."</p><p>Yet, the windfall goes well beyond shoring up our stock of donor organs. Bioprinting has the potential to dramatically advance the field of personalized medicine. For example, one danger of transplants is rejection by the host body. This happens when a recipient's immune system views the life-saving tissue as a foreign invader and attacks it. <a href="https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2010/09/researchers-find-faster-less-intrusive-way-to-identify-transplant-recipients-organ-rejection.html#:~:text=If%20organ%20function%20drops%2C%20doctors,the%20first%20year%20after%20transplant." target="_blank">About 40 percent of heart recipients</a> experience acute rejection in the first year, requiring doctors to prescribe immunosuppressant drugs.</p><p>Crafting an organ from a patient's personal stem-cell stock has the potential to reduce this risk. Replacement parts, such as heart patches, could also be patient-specific. Test prints could be constructed to analyze how a patient's system responds to specific drugs and treatments, taking <em>in vitro</em> experiments out of the Petri dish and into a microenvironment more representative of the natural human body.</p><p>"Instead of the trial-and-error medicine of the 20th century, you'll have the personalized medicine that has always been just around the corner. [This technology] may be an answer to that," Boland said.</p><p>And we could take bioprinting farther into space. Boling foresees a future where the technology could <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/artemisprogram" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">travel with us to the Moon</a> or beyond. There it could serve personalized pharmaceutical needs for stationed astronauts, or if paired with a Cell Factory, it could print meats made from bovine or pig cells. Ethical, yet potentially indistinguishable from its farm-raised counterpart.</p><p>We've come a long way since the 1950s. Many people are alive today thanks to what that first kidney transplant showed medical science. True, Techshot's test prints are small compared to an entire human organ, with its complex and interconnected network of epithelial, connective, muscle, and nervous tissue. But if printing an organ is equivalent to urban planning a cellular city, then Techshot's accomplishment is certainly the first of many skyscrapers toward that goal. That goal could be the proof on concept that saves many more.</p>