Secretive agency uses AI, human 'forecasters' to predict the future
A U.S. government intelligence agency develops cutting-edge tech to predict future events.
17 May, 2020
© Sergey Nivens - stock.adobe.com
- The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), a research arm of the U.S. government intelligence community, is focused on predicting the future.
- The organization uses teams of human non-experts and AI machine learning to forecast future events.
- IARPA also conducts advanced research in numerous other fields, funding rotating programs.
<p>As far as secretive government projects go, the objectives of <strong>IARPA</strong> may be the riskiest and most far-reaching. With its mission to foster "<a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/about-iarpa" target="_blank">high-risk, high-payoff</a>" programs, this research arm of the U.S. intelligence community literally tries to predict the future. Staffed by spies and Ph.D.s, this organization aims to provide decision makers with real, accurate predictions of geopolitical events, using artificial intelligence and human "forecasters."</p><p>IARPA, which stands for Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, was founded in 2006 as part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Some of the projects that it has funded focused on advancements in quantum computing, cryogenic computing, face recognition, universal language translators, and other initiatives that would fit well in a Hollywood action movie plot. But perhaps its main goal is to produce "anticipatory intelligence." It's a spy agency, after all.</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzI4NzQ1OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MjI1NTAwOX0.ZUYvDfDVRz-7AIljHVgjj80wb9pxpJnvZ79x8gE-0sg/img.jpg?width=980" id="70fad" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9be44ab5f0fa53505892da908c240b64" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt=""Minority report" pre-cog" />
"Minority report" pre-cog
Dreamworks/20th Century Fox
<p>In the interest of national security, IARPA wants to identify major world events before they happen, looking for terrorists, hackers or any perceived enemies of the United States. Wouldn't you rather stop a crime before it happens?</p><p>Of course, that's when we get into tricky political and sci-fi territory. Much of the research done by IARPA is actually out in the open, utilizing the public and experts in advancing technologies. It is available for "open solicitations," forecasting tournaments, and has <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/working-with-iarpa/prize-challenges" target="_blank">prize challenges</a> for the public. You can pretty much <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/working-with-iarpa/open-solicitations" target="_blank">send your idea in</a> right now. But what happens to the R&D once it leaves the lab is, of course, often for only the NSA and the CIA to know. </p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">The National Security Agency expert <strong>James Bamford</strong> wrote that the agency is ultimately looking to create a system where huge amounts of data about people's lives would be mined in real-time, for the purpose of preventing actions detrimental to the nation. In his <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/2017/06/11/The-Department-of-Knowing-All-About-You/stories/201706110131" target="_blank">article for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette</a>, Bamford wrote that IARPA's goal is to create very powerful automated computer systems, managed through artificial intelligence, which would be "</span><span style="background-color: initial;">capable of cataloging the lives of everyone everywhere, 24/ 7." Such programs would be able to instantaneously access data streams belonging to citizens, whether from social media or anywhere else. As Bamford writes, being able to analyze "every Facebook post, tweet and YouTube video; every tollbooth tag number; every GPS download, web search and news feed; every street camera video; every restaurant reservation on Open Table — largely eliminates surprise from the intelligence equation." </span><span style="background-color: initial;"></span></p><p>Of course, one would suspect much of this is going on already. IARPA's <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/mercury" target="_blank">Mercury program,</a> for example, concentrates on data mining millions of private overseas communications that are gathered by the National Security Agency. While it can certainly be argued that such a program is a national security necessity, working to spot terrorists and elements that can lead to social unrest, the potential for misuse and infringement on privacy rights has alerted observers.</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0b5be2ffe737f72d94805cb664ccc9db"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rqS0I1paWww?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
<p><br></p><p>A fascinating recent project funded by IARPA is called <strong>SAGE</strong>, which stands for <a href="https://www.ijcai.org/proceedings/2019/0955.pdf" target="_blank">Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events</a>. As you may expect from such a lofty title, the researchers involved in this endeavor are looking to predict the future. This project is aimed at utilizing non-experts – humans who would use AI machine learning to make qualified statements about what would happen. </p><p>Led by<strong> Aram Galstyan,</strong> director of the Artificial Intelligence Division at the<a href="https://viterbischool.usc.edu/" target="_blank"> USC Viterbi</a><a href="https://www.isi.edu/" target="_blank"> Information Sciences Institute</a> (ISI), the project has been successful in making concrete predictions, like knowing when North Korea would launch its missile tests. SAGE works by utilizing large sets of human non-expert predictors, pooling their powers by working together, making them "more accurate and faster than a single human subject expert," as explains a USC <a href="https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2020/02/its-not-magic-its-science-predicting-the-future/" target="_blank">press release</a>. However, the information these humans or "forecasters" use to make predictions is gathered through a variety of machine learning technologies.</p>
<p>The topics looked at by the predictors include such questions as "Will any G7 nation engage in an acknowledged national military attack against Syria [by a given date]?" They may also want to figure out exactly how much oil Venezuela might produce in a specific month. </p><p>Leaders among the forecasters, or those who make the most accurate predictions, are ranked and highlighted with badges.</p><p>This AI-assisted crowd-sourced Nostradamus has worked out quite well, according to <strong>Fred Morstatter,</strong> a USC computer scientist. "We believe that's the case because the numbers we're seeing indicate we are outpacing a system that uses only humans," he <a href="https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2020/02/its-not-magic-its-science-predicting-the-future/" target="_blank">remarked</a>.</p><p>SAGE's hybrid model functions by offering humans information derived by the machines in charts that show trends, along with specific predictions by the AI. "SAGE works because humans have one side of the coin, and machines have the other side," said Morstatter. And on yet another side you would have the National Intelligence apparatus. </p><p>Do you have a good idea for future-oriented national security research? You can actually <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/careers/become-a-program-manager" target="_blank">apply to be a IARPA program manager</a>. Current managers, who rotate every 3 to 5 years, are working on a vast variety of fields, including forecasting, linguistics, underwater technology, aerospace propulsion, atomic physics, artificial intelligence, biometrics, neuroscience, and optics. Check out the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/our-program-managers" target="_blank">list of existing programs.</a></p>
Keep reading
Show less
Top-secret U.S. space plane about to leave Earth for years
The Space Force will soon launch its X-37B spacecraft on a classified mission.
30 April, 2020
Credit: U.S. Air Force
- The U.S. Air Force is preparing to launch its X-37B space drone made by Boeing.
- The spacecraft is like a mini-space shuttle and is used to test technologies.
- X-37B's missions are highly classified, leading to speculation about their purpose.
<p><span style="background-color: initial;">The U.S. Space Force is about to launch the sixth mission of the secretive <strong>X-37B</strong> space plane. </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Where will the plane go and what will it do? Specific details about the robotic spacecraft and its missions are highly classified by the United States government, fueling speculation and conspiracies. The new mission is expected to see the plane away from Earth for <strong>at least two years.</strong></span></p><p>The last mission of the X-37B had the plane away from our planet for a total of <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1999734/x-37b-breaks-record-lands-after-780-days-in-orbit/" target="_blank">780 days,</a> from Sept. 7, 2017 until October 27, 2019. That flight broke the record for the longest amount of time in space by a spacecraft. </p>
<p>The reusable plane shares some similarities with the Space Shuttle, although being much smaller at 29 feet long, and is also made by Boeing. Its new flight, dubbed mission<strong> OTV-6 </strong>(with "OTV" standing in for "Orbital Test Vehicle") will supposedly have the mini-shuttle testing out new technologies, as <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-air-forces-x-37b-space-plane-could-soon-leave-earth-2-years-148841" target="_blank">reports The National Interest</a>. In reality, its purpose is likely geared more specifically towards space weaponry. Much like its global counterparts Russia and China, the United States is working on a new generation of military technology for space. The Air Force tends to not disclose the X37B's payloads, leading <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/what-secrets-about-x-37b-space-plane-america-hiding-112126" target="_blank">experts to conjecture</a> that it may be carrying sensors, spy satellites or even munitions. The Air Force certainly denies such allegations, saying the X-37B never carries weapons, which would be a violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.</p><p>The unmanned X-37B is scheduled to launch into low-Earth orbit on May 16, 2020. It will ride atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The last time the space drone was launched it was carried by the Falcon 9 made by Elon Musk's SpaceX. The <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1296566/air-force-preparing-to-launch-fifth-orbital-test-vehicle-mission/" target="_blank">official goal</a> of that mission was test "experimental electronics and oscillating heat pipes in the long duration space environment."</p>
Boeing X-37B Space Plane - What You Need To Know
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0b4a3e4ebd149f2611f514de66e8056e"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xz0GihB_42Y?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>The space plane's first mission took place in 2010. Subsequent missions have seen seen it stay out longer and longer. Once in orbit, it gets the power from solar panels for its on-board systems. The vehicle's thrusters for maneuvering run on liquid fuel. Whenever the landing of the X-37B takes place, it will do so on its own, like an airplane. </p><p>The Air Force actually has two such spacecraft. They take turns going to space and getting refurbished.</p>
First U.S. Space Force mission started with the launch of Atlas 5 rocket - 3/26/2020
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a0ddb25d3f80ec1462cbc1b2da8bc9be"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cCWSZyCUpRc?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
Keep reading
Show less
Insightful ideas can trigger orgasmic brain signals, study finds
Research shows how "aha moments" affect the brain and cause the evolution of creativity.
18 April, 2020
Credit: Drexel University
- New psychology study shows that some people have increased brain sensitivity for "aha moments."
- The researchers scanned brains of participants and noticed orgasm-like signals during insights.
- The scientists think this evolutionary adaptation drives creation of science and culture.
<p>Coming up with a great insight can cause pleasure similar to an orgasm, according to researchers. The eureka moment triggers neural reward signals that can flood some people with pleasure, suggesting it's an evolutionary adaptation that fuels the growth of creativity.</p><p>A <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/du-aa040920.php" target="_blank">recent neuroimaging study</a> from Drexel University discovered that the brain rewards systems of people with higher "reward sensitivity" ratings showed bursts of "gamma" EEG activity when they had creative insights. This signal is similar to those caused by pleasure-inducing experiences like orgasms, great food, or drinks that quench thirst. </p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">In carrying out the study, the scientists employed </span><span style="background-color: initial;"><em>high-density electroencephalograms (EEGs)</em> to track the brain activity of participants who were solving anagram puzzles. The subjects were required to unscramble letters in order to figure out a hidden word. When they had an aha moment of insight, figuring out the solution, the people would press a button, as EEG captured a snapshot of their brain activity.</span></p>
<p>Another part of the study included filling out a questionnaire intended to gauge a person's "reward sensitivity," defined by the researchers as "a basic personality trait that reflects the degree to which an individual is generally motivated to gain rewards rather than avoid losing them."</p><p>The scientists found that people scoring high on this rubric had very powerful aha moments. Their brain scans showed an extra burst of high-frequency gamma waves in the reward systems' orbitofrontal cortex.</p><p>People who scored low on reward sensitivity didn't exhibit such bursts. The researchers wrote that the eureka moments were noticed by them but were "lacking in hedonic content."</p>
<p>This led the study's authors, psychology professor <a href="https://sway.office.com/mQdXccaLZYqbOHEH?ref=email" target="_blank">John Kounios</a> and doctoral candidate <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HkpvkRAAAAAJ&hl=en" target="_blank">Yongtaek Oh</a>, to conclude that some might be seeking out activities that can lead to such moments of insights. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The fact that some people find insight experiences to be highly pleasurable reinforces the notion that insight can be an intrinsic reward for problem solving and comprehension that makes use of the same reward circuitry in the brain that processes rewards from addictive drugs, sugary foods, or love," <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053811920302445?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">wrote</a> the psychologists.</p><p>While the researchers think that creativity is not necessarily critical to human survival considering that other species managed to survive without it, they see its evolutionary connection.</p>
<p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The fact that evolution has linked the generation of new ideas and perspectives to the human brain's reward system may explain the proliferation of creativity and the advancement of science and culture," Kounios <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/du-aa040920.php" target="_blank">stated</a>.</p><p>You can read the recently published study in journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053811920302445?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">NeuroImage</a>.</p>
<div class="rm-shortcode" data-media_id="06b1K3Yq" data-player_id="FvQKszTI" data-rm-shortcode-id="03dee6abd27f7e3200fac48ecf262d28">
<div id="botr_06b1K3Yq_FvQKszTI_div" class="jwplayer-media"
data-jwplayer-video-src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/06b1K3Yq-FvQKszTI.js">
<img src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/thumbs/06b1K3Yq-1920.jpg" class="jwplayer-media-preview" />
</div>
<script src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/06b1K3Yq-FvQKszTI.js"></script>
</div>
Keep reading
Show less
Japanese scientists discover clue to erasing traumatic memories
Researchers make breakthrough in studying traumatic long-term memory in flies.
17 March, 2020
Pixabay
- Scientists in Japan find that light can affect long-term traumatic memories in flies.
- Keeping male flies in the dark helped them overcome negative mating memories.
- The researchers hope to use the finding to develop new treatments for PTSD and similar disorders.
<p>Can light be a factor in eliminating traumatic memories? Japanese scientists found that the long-term memory of flies can be affected if they are kept in the dark. This is the first discovery of the role of environmental light on such memories. The scientists hope to extend this approach to human victims of life-affecting traumas. </p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Events that are shocking can become a part of our <strong>long-term memory (LTM)</strong>, with new proteins synthesized and the neuronal circuits in our brain becoming altered, explains the <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/tmu-ctm031120.php" target="_blank">press release </a>from researchers at the <a href="https://www.tmu.ac.jp/english/index.html" target="_blank">Tokyo Metropolitan University</a></span><span style="background-color: initial;">, who made the breakthrough. These memories can be hard to erase and may lead to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).</span></p>
<p><span style="background-color: initial;">Through their research, the team led by </span><span style="background-color: initial;"><strong>Professor Takaomi Sakai</strong> from Tokyo Metropolitan University</span> discovered a particular molecular mechanism in <strong><em>Drosophilia</em> flies</strong> that affects LTM. To find this, they set up a trauma for male flies by placing them with females who already mated. According to the courtship <strong><em>conditioning paradigm</em>,</strong> in such situations mated females stress the unmated males to such an extent that they remember the experience, unwilling to ever mate with any more females <span style="background-color: initial;">– </span><span style="background-color: initial;">even if they were to be exposed to those that are unmated.</span></p><p>To see if they could reverse this traumatized behavior, the scientists placed male flies in the dark for days. They discovered that male flies who were in the dark for two or more days, were again willing to mate with females. In contrast, the flies who were kept on a normal day-night light cycle were still not interested in any mating. The researchers concluded that light had an affect on LTM.</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjg4MTczMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNjQ5MzQzNn0.02SdmtlOKIPGOe1ONqKdwl4APbD4rwGIBfv9P2DlJeE/img.jpg?width=980" id="e3b83" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="dbcfa41035d8521dea1d0288271ab0ee" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Scientists found that flies kept in the dark did not keep long-term traumatic memories because the Protein-dispersing factor (Pdf) was not released. This resulted in the lack of production of the cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB) in the fly brain's memory center.
Credit: Tokyo Metropolitan University
<p>Furthermore, they pinpointed the brain protein called the <em><strong>Pigment-dispersing factor (Pdf),</strong></em> which responds to light. They also saw that Pdf, in turn, impacts the protein known as the <em><strong>cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB)</strong></em> in the area of the insect brains that is linked to memory and learning, thus figuring out the molecular mechanism involved in the LTM process. If the fly was kept in the dark, the Pdf was not released and, in its turn, the cAMP protein was not produced.</p><p>This research shows that environmental factors can affect long-term memories and may lead to new treatments for trauma victims.</p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Check out the new study </span><span style="background-color: initial;">"Environmental Light Is Required for Maintenance of Long-Term Memory in Drosophila" in the <a href="https://www.jneurosci.org/content/40/7/1427" target="_blank">Journal of Neuroscience.</a></span></p>
Keep reading
Show less
"Game changer" superconductor discovered to power future computers
Scientists from John Hopkins find a material for quantum computing.
22 October, 2019
Credit: Yufan Li
- Researchers from John Hopkins University discovered a new superconducting material.
- The material, called β-Bi2Pd, can create flex qubits, necessary for quantum computing.
- Next for the scientists is looking for Majorana fermions.
<p><br></p></div>
<p>Quantum computers may be closer to reality thanks to a discovery by researchers from John Hopkins University. Their recent paper, published in <em>Science</em>, describes their find of a superconducting material that can be the basis of the computers of the future.</p><p>The big difference between our contemporary computers and quantum computers is that instead of using bits of either "0" or "1" to store a piece of information, the quantum computers will employ quantum mechanics. They will store data in quantum bits (known as "<strong>qubits</strong>"). Such qubits exist in a superposition of two states, where both zero and one can be represented at the same time. </p><p>This technology, supercharging computational speed, could make quantum computers immensely superior to current computers, especially in such fields as artificial intelligence, predicting weather, the stock market, developing cures for illnesses, military applications and others.</p>
<p>What the John Hopkins scientists found is a way to create a qubit from a ring made out of a superconducting material known as <strong>β-Bi2Pd,</strong> which naturally exists in a quantum state. Usually you would need to add magnetic fields to achieve this effect, a fact that makes the "flux qubit" created from this substance a possible "game changer," <a href="https://releases.jhu.edu/2019/10/10/johns-hopkins-researchers-discover-superconducting-material-that-could-someday-power-quantum-computer/" target="_blank">said</a> Chia-Ling Chien, Professor of Physics at The Johns Hopkins University and the paper's co-author.</p><p>In their study, the researchers observed that β-Bi<sub>2</sub>Pd exists between two states, with the current able to simultaneously circulate both clockwise and counterclockwise through its ring.</p><p>The scientists are most excited about the practicality of utilizing such a material.</p>
Quantum Computing 2019 Update
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="02e3827fb242a4607ee8ddd58cfd9508"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yhGATzzzQjM?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Quantum computing overview that includes main concepts, recent developments from IBM, Intel, Google, Microsoft, D-Wave, Rigetti and other pioneers.</p><p>Much more research lies ahead, however, before the era of quantum computers is upon us. Next for the researchers is looking for <strong>Majorana fermions</strong> within β-Bi<sub>2</sub>Pd. Finding these theoretical particles is seen as an important milestone in quantum computing. What's significant is that they are anti-particles of themselves and can lead to error-free <em>topological quantum computers.</em></p><p>The paper's first author. <strong>Yufan Li,</strong> a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Physics & Astronomy at The Johns Hopkins University, thinks that discovering the special properties of β-Bi<sub>2</sub>Pd bodes well for finding within it the fermions.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Ultimately, the goal is to find and then manipulate Majorana fermions, which is key to achieving fault-tolerant quantum computing for truly unleashing the power of quantum mechanics," said Li in a <a href="https://releases.jhu.edu/2019/10/10/johns-hopkins-researchers-discover-superconducting-material-that-could-someday-power-quantum-computer/" target="_blank">press release. </a></p><p><strong>Xiaoying Xu</strong> of Johns Hopkins University; and <strong>M.-H. Lee </strong>and <strong>M.-W. Chu </strong>of National Taiwan University were the additional co-authors of the paper. </p><p>Check out their new paper, published October 11th, in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6462/238" target="_blank">Science Magazine.</a></p>
Keep reading
Show less
Popular
