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What stops people from changing their minds?
A persistent barrage of information is not the best method for getting through to someone with a different point of view.
20 October, 2020
- When you want someone to see things differently and to abandon their previous stance, sometimes persistence is not key.
- "Too often we think change is about pushing," says Jonah Berger, author of the book The Catalyst: How to Change Anyone's Mind, and a marketing professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. "We think if we just come up with one more way people will eventually come around."
- Through speaking with people who have successfully changed minds of others, Berger identified five common barriers and created the REDUCE framework for finding the catalysts needed to break through: reactants, endowment, distance, uncertainty, and corroborating evidence.
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What does kindness look like? It wears a mask.
Northwell Health CEO Michael Dowling has an important favor to ask of the American people.
16 October, 2020
Sponsored by Northwell Health
- Michael Dowling is president and CEO of Northwell Health, the largest health care system in New York state. In this PSA, speaking as someone whose company has seen more COVID-19 patients than any other in the country, Dowling implores Americans to wear masks—not only for their own health, but for the health of those around them.
- The CDC reports that there have been close to 7.9 million cases of coronavirus reported in the United States since January. Around 216,000 people have died from the virus so far with hundreds more added to the tally every day. Several labs around the world are working on solutions, but there is currently no vaccine for COVID-19.
- The most basic thing that everyone can do to help slow the spread is to practice social distancing, wash your hands, and to wear a mask. The CDC recommends that everyone ages two and up wear a mask that is two or more layers of material and that covers the nose, mouth, and chin. Gaiters and face shields have been shown to be less effective at blocking droplets. Homemade face coverings are acceptable, but wearers should make sure they are constructed out of the proper materials and that they are washed between uses. Wearing a mask is the most important thing you can do to save lives in your community.
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Moral failings of leaders collapsed even the best societies, finds study
Researchers found the common element in the destruction of even the most powerful empires.
18 October, 2020
Destruction from The Course of Empire.
Credit: Thomas Cole. 1836.
- Researchers found a commonality between the collapse of ancient empires.
- Even the best-run nations fell apart because of leaders who undermined social contracts.
- The scientists found that societies that had good governments broke up even worse than those with dictators.
<p>As America chooses its next President, a new study says that even the most powerful and best-run empires have collapsed under leaders who broke social contracts.</p><p>The anthropology study took a deep dive into 30 pre-modern societies and found that even those that had "good" governments were not immune to catastrophic demise. In fact, societies where the government provided goods and services and prevented drastic inequalities of wealth and power, tended to fall apart even more dramatically than those who had despots. One commonality in the destruction of such societies – the failings of leaders who gravely weakened them by tearing apart societal ideals and morals.</p><p>Many pre-modern societies were similar to ours, even exhibiting what we can expect in contemporary democratic countries, explained Gary Feinman, the MacArthur curator of anthropology at Chicago's Field Museum, who was also a co-author of the study. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The states that had good governance, although they may have been able to sustain themselves slightly longer than autocratic-run ones, tended to collapse more thoroughly, more severely," said Feinman in a <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/fm-wgg100920.php" target="_blank">press release.</a></p>
<p>The study's lead author, Richard Blanton, a professor emeritus of anthropology at Purdue University, thinks that the degradation of such societies could have been anticipated and even prevented, but singular leaders managed to shake them up to the point where there was no turning back.<br></p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We refer to an inexplicable failure of the principal leadership to uphold values and norms that had long guided the actions of previous leaders, followed by a subsequent loss of citizen confidence in the leadership and government and collapse," pointed out Blanton.</p><p>A particular focus of the study were four societies that lasted for hundreds and in some cases thousands of years: the Roman Empire, the Ming Dynasty of China, India's Mughal Empire, and the Venetian Republic. All of these had relatively even breakdown between the haves and the have nots, although they did not hold popular elections. </p>
<p>As there were no exact equivalencies to modern democracies in ancient times, the anthropologists used other points of comparison like the main features of good governments, which meet the needs of their people, said Feinman.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"They didn't have elections, but they had other checks and balances on the concentration of personal power and wealth by a few individuals," he <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/fm-wgg100920.php" target="_blank">elaborated</a>. "They all had means to enhance social well-being, provision goods and services beyond just a narrow few, and ways for commoners to express their voices," he added. </p><p>Such governments provided necessary "communication and bureaucracies to collect taxes, sustain services, and distribute public goods," Feinman revealed. In this way, the economy was both helping the people and funding their leadership.</p><p>These societies lasted longer than those ran by autocrats or small power groups, but their collapses had worse effects on their citizens who came to rely on the government support for their lives. If a dictator-led country fell apart, the economic transformation was likely less pronounced as these leaders monopolized all resources and did not rely as heavily on taxation. It also stands to reason that people in such nations could have already been living worse due to the unethical behavior of those in power. </p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUyOTIwMi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MDU4MDg4M30.NSdJkmPRE-J4vu4_7u9uHRwLRdUtIH6Fs4XNDumC7VY/img.jpg?width=980" id="65a28" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2cb0fa9514e44b64c4b672c83729e32c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
The ruins of the Roman Forum, which served as representational government.
Credit: Linda Nicholas / Field Museum
<p>What were the qualities of a leader who could shake up and ultimately destroy a previously well-governed country? </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"In a good governance society, a moral leader is one who upholds the core principles and ethos and creeds and values of the overall society," <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/fm-wgg100920.php" target="_blank">related Feinman</a>. "Most societies have some kind of social contract, whether that's written out or not, and if you have a leader who breaks those principles, then people lose trust, diminish their willingness to pay taxes, move away, or take other steps that undercut the fiscal health of the polity."</p><p>The obvious connection to the present is that any society can fail, no matter how powerful or virtuous, as it's a "fragile human construct," stated Professor Blanton. Living off of past glory is no guarantee of future success, if you choose leaders who are willing to disrupt the society for their own benefits and immoral pursuits. </p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Check out the study "</span><span style="background-color: initial;">Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past" </span><span style="background-color: initial;">in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpos.2020.568704/full" target="_blank">Frontiers in Political Science</a>.</span></p>
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No bread, no circuses: The Olympics and climate change
Perhaps downhill and cross-country skiers don't face the fate of potters, typesetters and saddlers, but their situation is certainly unclear.
18 October, 2020
Adam Pretty/Getty Images
Global warming is making it difficult to organize sporting tournaments, but it's an even greater threat to small local clubs. Meanwhile, Big Sport is taking the lead in climate hypocrisy.
<p>This is a good time for last year's snow. Not long ago, this term was used to describe something that has no meaning, that doesn't concern us, that has no value. As the temperature has risen, the situation has changed. The 2014 Olympics in Sochi didn't happen on the freshest of snow, nor did countless World Cups in alpine, freestyle and cross-country skiing, and ski jumping. We're getting better and better at preserving last year's snow; snowfarming is helping winter sports and the resorts that live off of skiers and snowboarders to hang on. But only to hang on.</p><p>Since 1924, the Winter Olympics have been held in 21 cities. Scientists are sounding the alarm that even with a reduction in greenhouse gases, by 2050 eight of them will be unable to host the event. It's not just about the games themselves. Organizing an event once every four years isn't a problem. But who's going to compete if there's no place to train? When mass schussing and trekking on skis becomes impossible, the number of professionals will drop. Perhaps downhill and cross-country skiers don't face the fate of potters, typesetters and saddlers, but their situation is certainly unclear. "You can essentially kiss winter sports goodbye in the not-too-distant future," said Niclas Svenningsen of the UN. "You can basically only have winter sports in high-altitude alpine regions for a very limited period of time in the year."</p><p>So the sports business is one of the victims of the climate catastrophe. But at the same time, they're not doing much to counteract it.</p>
<h3>The poorest will pay first</h3><p>"It's clear that the 2020 games shouldn't be held in the middle of summer," Professor Makoto Yokohari of Tokyo University said a few months ago. After the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the world's largest sporting event was postponed for a year, but was still planned for late July and early August. So Yokohari's objection remains relevant.</p><p>It's still possible to attempt to understand the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) choice of Tokyo as the athletes' destination: it made the decision in 2013, when climate awareness was lower. But since then, knowledge has increased – along with the temperature. Nobody considered changing the dates, even though already six decades ago it was clear that Tokyo is too hot and humid in the summer. That's precisely why, in 1964, the Olympics in the Japanese capital were held in October. The difference is that back then the IOC wasn't as dependent on money from television, and America's NBC (which is paying $7.75 billion for the rights to broadcast the games in 2020–2032) didn't want to hear about a change in the date. Because in October, the NFL's American football season is in full swing, and Major League Baseball is reaching the climax of the season, both of which would definitely hit viewership. But in the summer, the games don't have any competition.</p><p>So the Olympic authorities are concentrating on limiting the risk of tragedy. That's no exaggeration, considering that last year in late July and early August the average temperature in Tokyo was 33°C (topping 40° on the hottest days), and humidity reached 80%. In just those two weeks, 200,000 people ended up in hospital as a result of the heat, of whom 70 died.</p><p>The gravity of the situation is best shown by how the marathons and walking events have been moved to Sapporo, Japan's capital of winter sports. But it's not clear why these competitions were chosen, while those sentenced to compete in the heat include long-distance swimmers (the water temperature in Tokyo Bay exceeds 30° in August), kayakers, golfers and all others who compete outdoors. After last year's junior kayaking world championships – held in the same place where the Olympics will be – several competitors ended up being treated for heatstroke. "That was the warmest race I've ever done," said the Tunisian Oussama Mellouli, a three-time Olympic medallist in swimming. "It felt good for the first two kilometres, then I got super overheated."</p>
<p>The weather during those events was also a threat to the fans, which is why the IOC has earmarked as much as $92 million to fight the effects of the heat. That will pay for water curtains and cooling tents next to the venues. The fans were to receive head coverings and bottles of water to take into the stands. That's new; earlier it was banned because of the risk of terrorism.</p><p>Let's say it again: the Olympics are a party, so every four years people think something up, clench their teeth and introduce extraordinary measures. In fact, the IOC has announced that when choosing the next host of the games, it will take into account the changes caused by the climate catastrophe. Paris, which will welcome the athletes in 2024, and Los Angeles (2028) have time to prepare. Later organizers will be required not just to ensure the competitors have stadiums, fields, arenas and swimming pools, but also to guarantee something as basic as conditions for competing.</p><p>Everyday sporting life is a much greater challenge. That's true here and now, not in some undefined future. In recent months, Hurricane Ciara caused the cancellation of football matches in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and England; heat forced the shortening and cancellation of bicycle races and interrupted tennis matches; floods destroyed pitches. Today, this last problem affects small stadiums, where amateurs or semi-professionals play. But first, such problems are adding up, and second, the destruction can be so great that it threatens the clubs' very existence, which is important for their local communities. Tadcaster Albion from northern England, who play in the seventh league, estimated the costs of repairing its flooded field at close to £40,000. The club couldn't afford it, and was threatened with bankruptcy. Its fans came to the rescue, organizing a crowdfunding campaign. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and other football corporations with turnovers of hundreds of millions of euros wouldn't even feel the costs of rebuilding a flooded pitch. And they'll certainly be able to afford to defend against the effects of global warming. Here, sport reflects a more widespread phenomenon: according to a recent UN report, the consequences of the climate disaster will be felt fastest and most deeply by the poorest.</p>
<h3>No plastic, but planes</h3><p>At the start of the year, Olympique Lyon's official Twitter account posted a picture of players boarding a plane that was to carry them to a match with Paris-Saint Germain. Lyon is barely 400 kilometres from the French capital, just two hours by train. French Green MEP Karima Delli described the clubs as: "The only ones who do not feel concerned by the climate emergency!"</p><p>And that's not even the most drastic example. Parisian footballers also flew to a match with Dijon (300 kilometres, 1.5 hours by train). At the same time, the club's bus drove that route empty – to pick them up from the airport. Real Madrid's players have even flown to matches 200 kilometres away in Salamanca and Valladolid, emitting 2.7 tonnes of CO2 each time. If they had taken the train, it would have been 0.35 tonnes.</p><p>The clubs explain that they choose to fly because that gets the players to their destination in the best form. They cite the decade-old example of how the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption meant that Barcelona had to travel by bus to Milan for the Champions League semi-final with Inter. After 13 hours on the road, they lost 1:3. But this example contains more magical thinking than rational argument. That journey was organized at the last minute; if they had decided on ground transport earlier, it would certainly have been possible to ensure comfort for the players. Nobody is demanding that clubs give up air travel overnight, but they could significantly reduce it.</p><p>That's important, because footballers spend almost as much time travelling as they do on the pitch. In recent decades, footballing authorities have been guilty of immoderation, increasing the number of games without considering the limitations of the human body and the calendar. In the early 1990s, there were eight teams in the group phase of the Champions League; now there are 32. The European Championships had eight teams; today, as many as 24. The World Cup brought together 24 teams; in 2026 there will be twice (!) as many. This has long since ceased making sporting sense, but the more matches, the more money from television, and the more participants there are, the happier the national associations are. And a happy association will gladly vote to re-elect the current authorities.</p>
<p>But organizing these bloated tournaments is hard, as demonstrated by the next European Championship (also postponed to next year), planned in 12 cities from Baku to Dublin, from Saint Petersburg to Rome. In the first phase alone, a Polish fan would have to travel at least 6000 kilometres (Warsaw-Dublin-Bilbao-Dublin). If they advance to the knockout stage, Jerzy Brzęczek's players could end up in Budapest (another 2300 kilometres). The rulers of European football say that in flying here and there the players, fans and VIPs will produce 425,000 tonnes of CO2. But after the tournament ends, UEFA will pay to plant more than 10,000 trees in the host countries. Still, bearing in mind that the last tournament, held only on French pitches, was responsible for 517,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions, the estimates for next year's event are, to put it lightly, optimistic, and according to climate activists, not credible. "Planting trees is great, but planting trees and then leaving does not resolve the problem," said Andrew Welfle from the University of Manchester.</p><p>The championships spread out over a dozen European countries are one of many examples of football authorities' thoughtlessness and lack of imagination. They're capable of adopting pro-climate solutions only by chance.</p><p>Take the next World Cup in Qatar, which will be different from all previous ones. The first one on the Persian Gulf, the first one planned for November-December, and finally the first in such a small space. The longest distance between two stadiums is measured in the tens of kilometres, and they're all connected by Metro lines, so this will be the first World Cup that's not only plane-less, but also car-less. But it's not like the satraps of football chose this location out of concern for the climate. They got millions in bribes from the Qatari authorities. (Thanks to investigations by German and British journalists, there isn't the slightest doubt about this.) In fact, at the start they even insisted that the tournament would happen in the summer. They gave up on that only when it turned out that neither the fans nor the players could survive Qatar's summer temperatures, which approach 50°C.</p><p>In many ways, the 2026 World Cup will be at the opposite end of the scale. The event has never been held over such a large area. The tournament in Canada, the US and Mexico will generate as much as 3.6 million tonnes of CO2. FIFA chose the hosts in mid-2018, when you had to be exceptionally knowledge-resistant not to notice what was happening.</p><p>It's worth keeping an eye on football, because it sets the trends, and other sports copy its solutions unthinkingly. In the 21st century, the European championships have swelled in volleyball, handball and basketball. Tournaments organized everywhere and nowhere have become a regular occurrence. Strewn across four countries from Finland to Turkey and from France to Latvia, they force air travel, though there's no reason not to organize these events in a smaller number of countries, over a smaller area.</p><p>To be clear: neither football nor sport in general is responsible for the climate disaster. Even if footballers, basketballers and volleyballers didn't exist, the situation would be tragic. The point is the hypocrisy. The football corporations – starting with UEFA and FIFA, down to local clubs – have calculated that the fight against global warming is good for their image, so every so often they announce that they maintain pitches using water-conserving techniques, they don't sell food in plastic packaging at their stadiums, they equip the players with green tops to remind us of the environment. Then they pack them into planes to fly to a match just down the road.</p>
<h3>Bailing out with a teaspoon</h3><p>In the Pyrenees, they say they've swung it. The authorities of Luchon-Superbagnères, which lies just above the Spanish border and a bit below Toulouse, sent helicopters to fight the climate catastrophe. Last winter, there was so little snow on the slopes (it would have been difficult with the temperature hovering around 10°C), that the resort had lost its reason to exist. When the school vacation season was approaching, local authorities rented a helicopter to bring 50 tonnes of snow to the summit. In the local budget, the operation will look like a great deal: the cost came in at €6000; without snow, the losses would have been tens of times higher.</p><p>Ecologist Patrick Jimena wrote on Facebook that this calls to mind bailing out a boat with a teaspoon during a tsunami. But this <em>bon mot</em> doesn't communicate the essence of the matter, which is that sending a helicopter with an internal combustion engine into the mountains will mean that in a few years it will have to fly even higher to find snow. And someday snow won't be found, even on the highest peak.</p><p>The way of thinking found in Luchon-Superbagnères is also in effect at the highest echelons of the sporting business. There are those who count on outdoor disciplines surviving thanks to air-conditioning. They completely fail to notice that cooling equipment only worsens the situation.</p><p>Others count on artificial snow saving winter sports. Of course, we're better and better at making it; we don't even need temperatures below freezing, but we do need water. And that's also running out, on a micro and a macro scale. Today, Poland is one of the countries with the lowest water resources in the EU; according to <em>Science</em>, in 2050 as many as five billion people may have difficulty accessing drinking water.</p><p>It's just as naive to count on bringing all winter sports indoors. There are plenty of covered ski slopes, in Dubai, Madrid, New Jersey and in Druskininkai near the Polish border. The greatest number has been built in China, which is preparing to organize the next Winter Olympics. But they're all still just a curiosity; they won't rescue professional competition.</p><p>So once again, it turns out that sport is no better and no worse than the environment in which it functions. Awareness of the ongoing climate disaster is widespread; we feel its effects every day. But nothing is changing: we're putting more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere; in the centre of Europe, elections are being won by groups that pretend the problem doesn't exist; in the autumn, a climate denier may be elected for a second term as US president. The sporting authorities – regardless of whether we're talking about football, the Olympics or basketball – are also at the stage of 'it'll work out somehow'. And actually, nobody knows what more would have to happen for this 'somehow' to turn deadly. Not just for athletes, trainers and fans, but also for the organizers themselves.</p><p><em>Translated from </em><a href="https://przekroj.pl/spoleczenstwo/ani-chleba-ani-igrzysk-andrzej-kula" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>the Polish</em></a><em> by Nathaniel Espino</em></p><p>Reprinted with permission of <a href="https://przekroj.pl/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Przekrój</a>. Read the <a href="https://przekroj.pl/en/society/no-bread-no-circuses-andrzej-kula" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">original article</a>.</p>
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Cornell University program aims to end world hunger in 10 years
Can we end world hunger by 2030? Thanks to a new program, the data for it is all there.
16 October, 2020
Children being given food at an aid camp in Rwanda.
Credit: SIMON WOHLFAHRT/AFP via Getty Images)
Politics & Current Affairs
- An international team of researchers has released a series of studies geared towards ending world hunger.
- They are thought to be some of the first people to use Evidence Synthesis for agricultural data.
- Their ideas could increase food production and lower poverty for a low cost, regardless if they meet their lofty goal.
<p> World Hunger is one of those problems that everybody seems to want to solve but that just won't go away. In 2020, nearly 700 million people suffered from hunger at some <a href="https://ceres2030.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">point</a>.<br> <br> This is despite years of both lip service to the idea of feeding everybody and sincere attempts by people, governments, and organizations with deep pockets to solve the issue. The number of people going hungry has been declining in recent years, but getting those last few hundred million fed has proven difficult. <br> <br> A new project offers potential solutions that could finally feed the world. Ceres2030, named for the Roman Goddess of Agriculture, aims to help the world reach the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal No. 2 and end world hunger in ten years using evidence-based, targeted investments in various <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/ceres2030-offers-path-to-ending-world-hunger-within-decade/%E2%80%99" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">areas</a>. </p>
Who are these people?
<p> Headquartered at Cornell University, <a href="https://ceres2030.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ceres2030 </a>is a collective project involving people from around the world. It is financed in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development. <br> <br> The enterprise includes more than 70 researchers from 23 different countries with the best information available on what works to reduce <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/cornell-unites-science-and-policy-end-hunger" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hunger</a>. These researchers are divided into eight teams, each covering a separate subject area. Each group reviews the literature and combines it into a general review which can be used to inform policy <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/cornell-unites-science-and-policy-end-hunger" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">decisions</a>. </p><iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cxZjsvgv3AA" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> There exists a technique, frequently used in medical science and other health-related fields, called "<a href="https://guides.library.cornell.edu/evidence-synthesis/intro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Evidence Synthesis</a><a href="https://guides.library.cornell.edu/evidence-synthesis/intro" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">.</a>" It aims to review all of the relevant literature on a topic in a way that outlines where the scientific consensus is, clearly shows where gaps in the research are, and provides a context for new discoveries. Before now, it was rarely, if ever, used to review information on agriculture. <strong></strong><br> </p><p>Using AI to sort through the endless data, the project considered half a million previously published reports, studies, and articles searching for information. By reviewing the summaries of these documents, the machine was able to synthesize the findings. The humans involved with the project then took these findings and authored <a href="https://www.nature.com/collections/dhiggjeagd" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ten papers</a> summarizing them to allow readers to draw broad conclusions on what the evidence suggests would effectively improve crop yields and farmer <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/ceres2030-offers-path-ending-world-hunger-within-decade" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">incomes</a>. <br> <br> This might strike you as a high tech version of an intensive review of the literature. However, it is essential to remember that many important works can sit unread for years at a time. Some of the studies reviewed may have been read by no more than a handful of people, and they certainly never reached the attention of farmers or officials in a place to apply their findings. By having computers go through this information, the Ceres team was able to create the most comprehensive summation of the data possible. </p><p>If humans alone were trying to do this task, they'd probably still be reviewing the data in 2030. </p>
What do they want us to do?
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/D1eFcqZE3xU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> The analysis shows that many studies agree on the benefits of a few, straightforward initiatives. Among these findings are game-changing ideas <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-020-00795-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">like</a>:<br> <br> Farmer's organizations help their members increase both their incomes and crop yields. Membership was linked with higher incomes in nearly 60 percent of studies, and benefits to crop yields were demonstrated in a quarter. These organizations play a part in helping farmers adopt modern techniques, tools, and crop types to help implement other policy suggestions. Assisting people in joining them can have a tremendous impact on their lives.</p><p>In the middle and lower-income countries, nearly three-quarters of small farmers live and work in areas where water is scarce. The vast majority of these farms do not have an irrigation system to speak of. Output and income could both be increased by addressing this infrastructure issue. Helping farmers switch to more climate change and drought-resistant crops and introduce new and improved livestock sources, both as sources of labor and food, can improve productivity and keep people resilient in the face of climate change. </p><p>These are just a handful of the ideas Ceres2030 endorse in their press releases. In each case, they point to piles of data showing the effectiveness of these ideas in increasing incomes, crop yields, and small producers' resiliency in the face of threats such as climate change. It could cost roughly 14 billion dollars more a year in aid to do it, about twice as much as we are spending on the problem now, alongside new investments by the governments of nations most plagued by <a href="https://ceres2030.org/shorthand_story/donors-must-double-aid-to-end-hunger-and-spend-it-wisely/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hunger</a>. </p><p>All of these ideas can be implemented tomorrow; many places have already done these things. It is only a matter of deciding to do it. Some of the findings and ideas are even simpler than these, including discovering that we <a href="https://osf.io/6zc92/" target="_blank">waste a lot of food</a> and that simple solutions can prevent much of it. <br><br>More information on their ideas and how they came to their conclusions can be found on the Ceres2030 <a href="https://ceres2030.org/" target="_blank">website</a>. <br></p>Will this work?
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9CdZSakEqBU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> It might. <br> <br> The findings and recommendations are based on extensive research, histories of successful implementation elsewhere, and a sincere desire to use evidence to help people. Following them would lead to better-informed farmers making more money while sustainably growing more food. The recommendations are neither one-size-fits-all, nor are they overly specific to the point where they cannot be <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/cornell-unites-science-and-policy-end-hunger" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">generalized</a>. <br> <br> There are also plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7015855/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">study</a> published this year in Nature argues that we will not be able to end world hunger by 2030. It takes the stance that some countries with endemic malnourishment are unlikely to reach their development targets for 2025, let alone the more ambitious goals for 2030. <br> <br> The costs of not at least making progress on this front are very high. Without progress, an additional 100 million people could end up both hungry and mired in extreme poverty by the end of the decade, according to an <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/global-hunger-rising-food-agriculture-organization-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">estimate</a> by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused some regression already, as economic difficulty leads to empty bellies. <br> <br> The entirety of human history has been marked by attempts to produce enough food for everybody, and it is only recently (relatively speaking) that we've managed to do that. Today, we grow enough food for 10 billion people but seem to have difficulty getting it to the people who need it most. The suggestions of the Ceres2030 team, if followed, offer the chance to finally rid the world of hunger and famine for less than $50 per currently malnourished person per year. <br> <br> It's only a question of doing it. Let's see if we want to. </p>
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Six ways machine learning threatens social justice
Machine learning is a powerful and imperfect tool that should not go unmonitored.
15 October, 2020
Credit: Monopoly919 on Adobe Stock
Technology & Innovation
- When you harness the power and potential of machine learning, there are also some drastic downsides that you've got to manage.
- Deploying machine learning, you face the risk that it be discriminatory, biased, inequitable, exploitative, or opaque.
- In this article, I cover six ways that machine learning threatens social justice and reach an incisive conclusion: The remedy is to take on machine learning standardization as a form of social activism.
<p>When you harness the power and potential of machine learning, there are also some drastic downsides that you've got to manage. Deploying machine learning, you face the risk that it be discriminatory, biased, inequitable, exploitative, or opaque. In this article, I cover six ways that machine learning threatens social justice and reach an incisive conclusion: The remedy is to take on machine learning standardization as a form of social activism.</p><p>When you use machine learning, you aren't just optimizing models and streamlining business.<strong> You're governing. </strong>In essence, the models embody policies that control access to opportunities and resources for many people. They drive consequential decisions as to whom to investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate – or to whom to grant a loan, insurance coverage, housing, or a job.<br></p><p>For the same reason that machine learning is valuable—that it drives operational decisions more effectively—it also wields power in the impact it has on millions of individuals' lives. Threats to social justice arise when that impact is detrimental, when models systematically limit the opportunities of underprivileged or protected groups.</p>
Here are six ways machine learning threatens social justice
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUyMDgxNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MzM0NjgxOH0.zHvEEsYGbNA-lnkq4nss7vwVkZlrKkuKf0XASf7A7Jg/img.jpg?width=980" id="05f07" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a7089b6621166f5a2df77d975f8b9f74" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Credit: metamorworks via Shutterstock
<p><strong></strong><strong>1) </strong><strong>Blatantly discriminatory models</strong> are predictive models that base decisions partly or entirely on a protected class. Protected classes include race, religion, national origin, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, pregnancy, and disability status. By taking one of these characteristics as an input, the model's outputs – and the decisions driven by the model – are based at least in part on membership in a protected class. Although models rarely do so directly, there is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSlzy1x6Fy0" target="_blank">precedent</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfpNN8ASIq4" target="_blank">support</a> for doing so.</p><p>This would mean that a model could explicitly hinder, for example, black defendants for being black. So, imagine sitting across from a person being evaluated for a job, a loan, or even parole. When they ask you how the decision process works, you inform them, "For one thing, our algorithm penalized your score by seven points because you're black." This may sound shocking and sensationalistic, but I'm only literally describing what the model would do, mechanically, if race were permitted as a model input. </p><p><strong>2) Machine bias</strong>. Even when protected classes are not provided as a direct model input, we find, in some cases, that model predictions are still inequitable. This is because other variables end up serving as proxies to protected classes. This is <a href="https://coursera.org/share/51350b8fb12a5937bbddc0e53a4f207d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a bit complicated</a>, since it turns out that models that are fair in one sense are unfair in another. </p><p>For example, some crime risk models succeed in flagging both black and white defendants with equal precision – each flag tells the same probabilistic story, regardless of race – and yet the models falsely flag black defendants more often than white ones. A crime-risk model called COMPAS, which is sold to law enforcement across the US, falsely flags white defendants at a rate of 23.5%, and Black defendants at 44.9%. In other words, black defendants who don't deserve it are <a href="https://coursera.org/share/df6e6ba7108980bb7eeae0ba22123ac1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">erroneously flagged almost twice as much</a> as white defendants who don't deserve it.</p><p><strong>3) Inferring sensitive attributes</strong>—predicting pregnancy and beyond. Machine learning predicts sensitive information about individuals, such as sexual orientation, whether they're pregnant, whether they'll quit their job, and whether they're going to die. Researchers have shown that it is possible to <a href="https://youtu.be/aNwvXhcq9hk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">predict race based on Facebook likes</a>. These predictive models deliver dynamite.</p><p>In a particularly extraordinary case, officials in China use facial recognition to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/technology/china-surveillance-artificial-intelligence-racial-profiling.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">identify and track the Uighurs, a minority ethnic group</a> systematically oppressed by the government. This is the first known case of a government using machine learning to profile by ethnicity. One Chinese start-up valued at more than $1 billion said its software could recognize "sensitive groups of people." It's website said, "If originally one Uighur lives in a neighborhood, and within 20 days six Uighurs appear, it immediately sends alarms" to law enforcement.</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="10134f9910c910d2002e2c1984069791"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IHE63fxpHCg?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p><strong></strong><strong>4) A lack of transparency.</strong> A computer can keep you in jail, or deny you a job, a loan, insurance coverage, or housing – and yet <a href="https://coursera.org/share/76491423c1a084324962c9ee8abd6b9e" target="_blank">you cannot face your accuser</a>. The predictive models generated by machine learning to drive these weighty decisions are generally kept locked up as a secret, unavailable for audit, inspection, or interrogation. Such models, inaccessible to the public, perpetrate a lack of due process and a lack of accountability.</p><p>Two ethical standards oppose this shrouding of electronically-assisted decisions: 1) <em>model transparency</em>, the standard that predictive models be accessible, inspectable, and understandable. And 2) <em>the right to explanation</em>, the standard that consequential decisions that are driven or informed by a predictive model are always held up to that standard of transparency. Meeting those standards would mean, for example, that a defendant be told which factors contributed to their crime risk score -- which aspects of their background, circumstances, or past behavior caused the defendant to be penalized. This would provide the defendant the opportunity to respond accordingly, establishing context, explanations, or perspective on these factors.</p><p><strong>5) Predatory micro-targeting.</strong> Powerlessness begets powerlessness – and that cycle can magnify for consumers when machine learning increases the efficiency of activities designed to maximize profit for companies. Improving the micro-targeting of marketing and the predictive pricing of insurance and credit can magnify the cycle of poverty. For example, highly-targeted ads are more adept than ever at <a href="https://youtu.be/LeZv2RanMRQ" target="_blank">exploiting vulnerable consumers</a> and separating them from their money.</p><p>And insurance pricing can lead to the same result. With insurance, the name of the game is to charge more for those at higher risk. Left unchecked, this process can quickly slip into predatory pricing. For example, a churn model may find that elderly policyholders don't tend to shop around and defect to better offers, so there's less of an incentive to keep their policy premiums in check. And pricing premiums based on other life factors also contributes to a cycle of poverty. For example, individuals with poor credit ratings are charged more for car insurance. In fact, a low credit score can increase your premium more than an at-fault car accident.</p><p><strong>6) The coded gaze.</strong> If a group of people is underrepresented in the data from which the machine learns, the resulting model won't work as well for members of that group. This results in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG_X_7g63rY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">exclusionary experiences and discriminatory practices</a>. This phenomenon can occur for both facial image processing and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/14/7684" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">speech recognition</a>.</p>
Recourse: Establish machine learning standards as a form of social activism
<p>To address these problems, take on machine learning standardization as a form of social activism. We must establish standards that go beyond nice-sounding yet vague platitudes such as "be fair", "avoid bias", and "ensure accountability". Without being precisely defined, these catch phrases are subjective and do little to guide concrete action. Unfortunately, such broad language is fairly common among the principles released by many companies. In so doing, companies protect their public image more than they protect the public.<br></p><p>People involved in initiatives to deploy machine learning have a powerful, influential voice. These relatively small numbers of people mold and set the trajectory for systems that automatically dictate the rights and resources that great numbers of consumers and citizens gain access to.</p><p>Famed machine learning leader and educator Andrew Ng drove it home: "AI is a superpower that enables a small team to affect a huge number of people's lives... Make sure the work you do leaves society better off."</p><p>And Allan Sammy, Director, Data Science and Audit Analytics at Canada Post, clarified the level of responsibility: "A decision made by an organization's analytic model is a decision made by that entity's senior management team."</p><p>Implementing ethical data science is as important as ensuring a self-driving car knows when to put on the breaks.</p><p>Establishing well-formed ethical standards for machine learning will be an intensive, ongoing process. For more, <a href="https://youtu.be/ToSj0ZkJHBQ" target="_blank">watch this short video</a>, in which I provide some specifics meant to kick-start the process.</p><p><em>Eric Siegel, Ph.D., is a leading consultant and former Columbia University professor who makes machine learning understandable and captivating. He is the founder of the long-running <a href="https://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Predictive Analytics World</a> and the <a href="https://www.deeplearningworld.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deep Learning World</a> conference series and the instructor of the end-to-end, business-oriented Coursera specialization </em><em><a href="http://www.machinelearning.courses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Machine learning for Everyone</a>. Stay in touch with Eric on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/predictanalytic" target="_blank">@predictanalytic.</a></em><a href="http://www.machinelearning.courses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a></p>
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Beyond Meat: Are you ready for lab-grown salmon?
An overfished planet needs a better solution. Fortunately, it's coming.
14 October, 2020
Photo: tenkende / Shutterstock
Technology & Innovation
- Cell-based fish companies are getting funding and making progress in offering a new wave of seafood.
- Overfishing and rising ocean temperatures are destroying entire ecosystems.
- The reality of cell-based fish is likely five to 10 years away.
<p>The world does not have infinite resources. Yet as humans have exploded in population, from 1 billion in 1804 to nearly 8 billion today, we've treated the planet as our perpetual garden, leading to numerous problems, including <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/overfishing" target="_blank">overfishing</a>. Over one-third of fisheries worldwide are pushed beyond their limits. Tragically, we continue to decimate populations year after year.</p><p>If we remain at the current pace, in a few decades all we'll have left to eat is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/how-an-explosion-of-jellyfish-is-wreaking-havoc/" target="_blank">jellyfish</a>—yet another consequence of climate change. Sure, some of the 200 species are edible, though there's a reason you don't see shortages of jellyfish poke. We need to be proactive and limit trawling and other environmentally damaging practices. We also need to innovate, as a few companies are doing. </p><p>Enter lab-grown fish. </p><p>Some recoil at the mere mention, yet that's what innovation entails. We've gotten ourselves into this problem through technology—giant ships that drudge up entire ecosystems in a matter of hours—and technology might just help keep one of the most nutritious food sources on the planet in our diet. In the last half-century, oceanic "<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/04/oceans-suffocating-dead-zones-oxygen-starved" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dead zones</a>" have quadrupled due to human intervention. That practice cannot last. </p><p>While in countries like America, fish are a healthy option but not a necessity, many other countries rely on seafood as a main staple in their diet—according to the UN, <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/I9540EN/i9540en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">3.2 billion people</a>. Beyond trawlers, <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/seafood-climate-change-dying-temperature-seas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">warming ocean temperatures</a> are destroying fish populations. This trend isn't only destroying diets but entire economies as well. </p>
Future of Food: This genetically engineered salmon may hit U.S. markets as early as 2020
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="466fe20063a2292a48789f370c04ea13"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bco7rPyKwec?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>While cell-based beef is getting all the press, companies like BlueNalu recently raised $24.5 million in funding. The San Diego-based start-up <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2019-12-25/lab-grown-fish-just-got-real-san-diego-startup-shows-off-first-slaughter-free-yellowtail#:~:text=A%20San%20Diego%20foodtech%20startup,many%20researchers%20only%20dream%20of" target="_blank">extracts</a> muscle cells from an anesthetized fish, treats the cells with enzymes in a culture, places the mixture in a nutrient solution in a bioreactor, spins it all around in a centrifuge, and finally 3D-prints the new concoction into the desired shape.</p><p>The goal isn't to perfectly replicate a fish that you'd find on ice in your local market. No brain, skin, organs, or even possibility of consciousness are in this creature. In a strange twist, this makes cell-based seafood a potential food source for vegetarians and vegans, since the Adam fish can be returned to the waters unharmed. </p><p>One current solution to overfishing—fish farms—comes with it a host of problems, including the proliferation of sea lice, which have a tendency to escape the porous boundaries to infect wild fish. Bonus: with cell-based fish, you won't run into any issues with mercury or <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/microplastics-soil" target="_self">microplastics</a>. </p><p>What you'll (hopefully) purchase is a good-tasting product, which has thus far been elusive. BlueNalu CEO, <a href="https://apnews.com/5327a2c3a8e74adab0cc63d5994ffc72" target="_blank">Lou Cooperhouse</a>, is confident his company's product will eventually meet standards set by your taste buds. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Our medallions of yellowtail can be cooked via direct heat, steamed or even fried in oil; can be marinated in an acidified solution for applications like poke, ceviche, and kimchi, or can be prepared in the raw state."</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDUxOTExOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1Njg1MDkxMH0.TS2YYnNuflGdGoni1t2c-nrXcfH8JeWZTZmhEkgmgWE/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C248%2C0%2C111&height=700" id="6fba7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5642a3c020bd0664751705a3ddf0c255" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: aleksandr / Shutterstock
<p>There are barriers, of course. As with pluripotent meats, cell-based fish are expensive. A spicy salmon roll produced by the start-up, Wildtype, <a href="https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/16/this-startup-is-growing-sushi-grade-salmon-from-cells-in-a-lab/" target="_blank">cost $200</a> to make. It's going to take a while for the price to drop and consumer demand to rise; estimates are five to ten years.</p><p>Another issue is indicative of solar power and wind energy trying to cut in on Big Oil: the seafood industry doesn't want to lose its profit margin. Of course, like oil companies, Big Seafood is betting on a finite resource. The sooner they realize that, the better. </p><p>Then there's production, which is where education comes into play. Former BlueNalu Chairman Chris Somogyi tries to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/05/05/720041152/seafood-without-the-sea-will-lab-grown-fish-hook-consumers" target="_blank">demystify</a> the laboratory process. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We aren't using CRISPR technology. We aren't introducing new molecules into the diet. We're not introducing a new entity that doesn't exist in nature. The approval will be about whether this is safe, clean and are the manufacturing processes reliable and accountable."</p><p>If there's an ick factor to cell-based fish, remember that most processed foods are already created in laboratories. There are no Oreo trees or ketchup plants to harvest. </p><p>For now, these start-ups and others like them will have to figure out how to create non-energy-intensive and cost-prohibitive solutions for spinning up seafood inside of a petri dish. Novelty alone will create enough demand to get them going, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/beyond-meat-bynd-q2-2020-earnings.html#:~:text=Net%20sales%20rose%2069%25%20to,since%20many%20are%20temporarily%20shuttered." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">precedent</a> in the lab-grown meat industry shows. </p><p>The reality is that we need to go down this path. There are too many humans and not enough resources. While we can hope (as David Attenborough does in his <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80216393" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new Netflix documentary</a>) that national governments will create more no-fish zones, there's no guarantee that will happen. We need science to win this one. </p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His new book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
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