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Spin a roulette wheel a million times, and you’ll see a fairly even split between black and red. But spin it a few dozen times, and there might be “streaks” of one or the other. The gambler’s fallacy leads bettors to believe that they odds are better if they bet against the streak. But the wheel has no memory of previous spins; for each round, leaving aside those pesky green zeroes, the odds for each color are always going to be 50-50.
How our own minds work is hard to see. As with almost everything else our views are shaped by the ideas our culture uses. Here are some once-tempting views about why we do what we know we will rue (tales of sin, vice and bad decisions).