Can you still spread coronavirus after getting the vaccine?
The vaccine will shorten the "shedding" time.
03 March, 2021
Fredrik Lerneryd/Getty Images
Editor's note: So you've gotten your coronavirus vaccine, waited the two weeks for your immune system to respond to the shot and are now fully vaccinated.
<p><em>Does this mean you can make your way through the world like the old days without fear of spreading the virus? <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eNprtJEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Deborah Fuller is a microbiologist</a> at the University of Washington School of Medicine working on coronavirus vaccines. She explains what the science shows about transmission post-vaccination – and whether new variants could change this equation.</em></p><h2>1. Does vaccination completely prevent infection?</h2><p>The short answer is no. You can still get infected after you've been vaccinated. But your chances of getting seriously ill are almost zero.</p><p>Many people think vaccines work like a shield, blocking a virus from infecting cells altogether. But in most cases, a person who gets vaccinated is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/sterilizing-immunity">protected from disease, not necessarily infection</a>.</p><p>Every person's immune system is a little different, so when a vaccine is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/health/covid-vaccine-95-effective.html">95% effective</a>, that just means 95% of people who receive the vaccine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">won't get sick</a>. These people could be completely protected from infection, or they could be getting infected but remain asymptomatic because their immune system eliminates the virus very quickly. The remaining 5% of vaccinated people can become infected and get sick, but are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765">extremely unlikely to be hospitalized</a>. </p><p>Vaccination doesn't 100% prevent you from getting infected, but in all cases it gives your immune system a huge leg up on the coronavirus. Whatever your outcome – whether complete protection from infection or some level of disease – you will be better off after encountering the virus than if you hadn't been vaccinated.</p><p> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An electron microscope scan of the coronavirus" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/386271/original/file-20210224-22-1uk65si.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w"></a></p><p> Vaccines prevent disease, not infection. (<a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#/media/File:Novel_Coronavirus_SARS-CoV-2.jpg">National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a>)</p>
<h2>2. Does infection always mean transmission?</h2><p>Transmission happens when enough viral particles from an infected person get into the body of an uninfected person. In theory, anyone infected with the coronavirus could potentially transmit it. But a vaccine will reduce the chance of this happening.</p><p>In general, if vaccination doesn't completely prevent infection, it will significantly reduce the amount of virus coming out of your nose and mouth – a process called shedding – and shorten the time that you shed the virus. This is a big deal. A person who sheds less virus is <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccines-need-not-completely-stop-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less likely to transmit it to someone else</a>.</p><p>This seems to be the case with coronavirus vaccines. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251283" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">recent preprint study</a> which has yet to be peer reviewed, Israeli researchers tested 2,897 vaccinated people for signs of coronavirus infection. Most had no detectable virus, but people who were infected had one-quarter the amount of virus in their bodies as unvaccinated people tested at similar times post-infection.</p><p>Less coronavirus virus means less chance of spreading it, and if the amount of virus in your body is low enough, the probability of transmitting it may reach almost zero. However, researchers don't yet know where that cutoff is for the coronavirus, and since the vaccines don't provide 100% protection from infection, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that people continue to wear masks and social distance even <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">after they've been vaccinated</a>.</p>
<h2>3. What about the new coronavirus variants?</h2><p>New variants of coronavirus have emerged in recent months, and recent studies show that vaccines are less effective against certain ones, like <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-b1351-variant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the B1351 variant</a> first identified in South Africa.</p><p>Every time SARS-CoV-2 replicates, it gets new mutations. In recent months, researchers have found new variants that are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more infective</a> – meaning a person needs to breathe in less virus to become infected – and other variants that are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab082/6134354" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more transmissible</a> - meaning they increase the amount of virus a person sheds. And researchers have also found at least one new variant that seems to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251704" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">better at evading the immune system</a>, according to early data.</p><p>So how does this relate to vaccines and transmission?</p>
<p>For the South Africa variant, vaccines still provide <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/one-dose-covid-19-vaccine-offers-solid-protection-against-severe-disease" target="_blank">greater than 85% protection</a> from getting severely ill with COVID–19. But when you count mild and moderate cases, they provide, at best, only about <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00370-6/fulltext" target="_blank">50%-60% protection</a>. That means at least 40% of vaccinated people will still have a strong enough infection – and enough virus in their body – to cause at least moderate disease.</p><p>If vaccinated people have more virus in their bodies and it takes less of that virus to infect another person, there will be higher probability a vaccinated person could transmit these new strains of the coronavirus.</p><p>If all goes well, vaccines will very soon reduce the rate of severe disease and death worldwide. To be sure, any vaccine that reduces disease severity is also, at the population level, reducing the amount of virus being shed overall. But because of the emergence of new variants, vaccinated people still have the potential to shed and spread the coronavirus to other people, vaccinated or otherwise. This means it will likely take <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccines-need-not-completely-stop-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/" target="_blank">much longer for vaccines to reduce transmission</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00396-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for populations to reach herd immunity</a> than if these new variants had never emerged. Exactly how long that will take is a balance between how effective vaccines are against emerging strains and how transmissible and infectious these new strains are.</p><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-fuller-1207799" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deborah Fuller</a>, Professor of Microbiology, School of Medicine, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-washington-699" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">University of Washington</a></em></p><p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-vaccinated-people-still-spread-the-coronavirus-155095" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">original article</a>.</p>
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Eight women at the forefront of the world’s COVID-19 response
Beyond making up 70% of the world's health workers, women researchers have been at the cutting edge of coronavirus research.
28 February, 2021
Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images
- The gender gap persists, as only 33% of the world's researchers are women.
- Here are just some of the women making lasting contributions in the fight against COVID-19.
- They include Dr Özlem Türeci, co-founder of BioNTech, which helped produce the first vaccine.
<p>Women across the world have made an enormous contribution to the global efforts to tackle COVID-19. Not only do women make up 70% of the world's health workers and first responders, women in STEM fields have been leading research into the virus, creating trackers and developing vaccines.</p><p>But the pandemic has had a <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2020/9/feature-covid-19-economic-impacts-on-women" target="_blank">disproportionate social and economic impact on women</a>, as many have borne the brunt of childcare duties or lost jobs in sectors most affected – and this includes <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2021/2/statement-ed-phumzile-and-audrey-azoulay-day-of-women-and-girls-in-science" target="_blank">women scientists</a>.</p><p>February 11th is UN International Day of Women and Girls in Science – and the theme this year is celebrating the women scientists at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19, including Dr Özlem Türeci, co-founder of BioNTech, which helped produce the first vaccine.</p>
<p>Women represent almost half the students at Bachelor's (45%), Master's (55%) and PhD (44%) levels of study, according to UNESCO's forthcoming Science Report – but only 33% of the world's researchers are women.</p><p>To encourage more girls and women to take up careers in the STEM fields, UNESCO is gathering some of the world's leading COVID-19 experts for a virtual event.</p><p>"We need science, and science needs women. This is not only about making a commitment to equal rights; it is also about making science more open, diverse and efficient," said Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Executive Director of UN Women, and Audrey Azoulay, Director-General of UNESCO.</p><p>Here are just some of the women in STEM around the globe who have been making a difference during the pandemic.</p>
<h3>Dr Özlem Türeci</h3><p>Dr Türeci and her husband Dr Ugur Sahin co-founded biotechnology company BioNTech in Germany in 2008. In 2020, BioNTech and pharmaceutical firm Pfizer developed the <a href="https://time.com/5927342/mrna-covid-vaccine/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=_&linkId=108864999" target="_blank">first approved RNA-based vaccine against COVID-19</a>. They celebrated the news that it had 90% efficacy with a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/business/biontech-covid-vaccine.html" target="_blank">cup of Turkish tea</a>, the pair told <em>The New York Times.</em> Recently featured on the cover of <em>Time </em>magazine, the scientists plan to produce <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/biontech-starts-production-at-new-covid-vaccine-plant-in-germany" target="_blank">two billion doses of the vaccine this year</a> to help bring the pandemic to an end.</p><iframe title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1348573520008261635&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2021%2F02%2Fwomen-stem-covid-19-un%2F&theme=light&widgetsVersion=889aa01%3A1612811843556&width=550px" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 723px; flex-grow: 1;"></iframe>
<h3>Dr Soumya Swaminathan</h3><p>A paediatrician and one of India's leading public health experts, known for her <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30008-3/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">groundbreaking research on tuberculosis</a>, Dr Swaminathan was appointed the World Health Organization's (WHO) Chief Scientist in 2019 and has been coordinating international work on vaccine development. She spoke about challenges women researchers face at the <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/our-institutions-are-very-patriarchal-who-chief-scientist-soumya-swaminathan/article32846728.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Women Leaders in Global Health Conference</a> 2020: "It is more difficult for women researchers to get their grants approved … and women also have difficulties in getting their results published, if you are from developing countries, in journals, because of perceived biases. I have faced those kinds of challenges and biases."</p><iframe title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1356645654928515072&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2021%2F02%2Fwomen-stem-covid-19-un%2F&theme=light&widgetsVersion=889aa01%3A1612811843556&width=550px" style="position: static; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 871px; flex-grow: 1;"></iframe>
<h3>Ramida Juengpaisal</h3><p>Within a night in March 2020, Ramida Juengpaisal and her colleagues at web design firm 5LAB in Bangkok, Thailand, <a href="https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">built a tracker of COVID-19 cases</a>, giving the city's eight million residents up-to-date news and information about the pandemic and helping to stop the spread of misinformation. She told Reuters the <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20200602121235-6etrn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">perception that girls are less suited to technology-based roles</a> is gradually shifting: "We need more women in tech. One good thing about this crisis is that we have seen people – including women – come forward to create things that are useful to others, and be recognized."</p><a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2021/2/compilation-women-in-science-leading-during-the-pandemic" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img alt="a quote card of Ramida Juengpaisal" src="https://assets.weforum.org/editor/lqbNxHNJkHPqdIUpTLso7kXGmuVo585G5_0o9dcM0FA.png"></a>Ramida Juengpaisal built a COVID-19 tracker for Bangkok – overnight. Image: UN Women/Stefan Abrecht/BioNTech<p>Professor Sarah Gilbert</p><p>Prof Gilbert is the Oxford Project Lead for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, now <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be33aa38-5eff-4069-b104-ba7bdb735c72" target="_blank">recommended for use by all adults worldwide</a> by the WHO. When the genetic sequence for the new coronavirus was published in January last year, she swiftly built on her work developing a vaccine for MERS, which used chimp adenovirus to deliver the spike protein into humans. Prof Gilbert is currently working on a new version of the vaccine to tackle the South African variant.</p><iframe title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1358362139883433986&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2021%2F02%2Fwomen-stem-covid-19-un%2F&theme=light&widgetsVersion=889aa01%3A1612811843556&width=550px" rel="box-sizing: border-box; position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 571px; flex-grow: 1;" style="position: static; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 571px; flex-grow: 1;"></iframe><h3>Somaya Faruqi</h3><p>Faruqi and her all-female robotics team began <a href="https://features.unicef.org/teen-girl-activist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">developing a low-cost, lightweight ventilator</a> using locally available, second-hand car parts, after the first COVID-19 case was reported in her home province of Herat in Afghanistan. She told <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2021/2/i-am-generation-equality-somaya-faruqi" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UN Women:</a> "Sometimes, families think science and tech are male fields and prefer that their girls don't enter them. We have less role models for young women in these fields, and that makes it more challenging for young women to enter this industry."</p>
<h3>Neema Kaseje</h3><p>Kaseje is the Founder of Surgical Systems Research Group in Kenya, which seeks to rapidly expand access to health services by leveraging youth, technology and community health workers. Since May 2020, the group has helped to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/early-lessons-engaging-youth-technology-and-community-health-volunteers-siaya-kenya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases in Siaya County</a>, by combining digital tools and data science with the work of young people and community health workers to raise awareness about preventative measures.</p><h3>Professor Devi Sridhar</h3><p>American public health researcher Prof Sridhar is a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01170-z" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">leading authority on COVID-19</a> in the UK and Professor and Chair of Global Public Health at Edinburgh University. She is known for her work on assessing the <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i2666" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">international response to the Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa</a>. Among her frequent media appearances, she spoke to the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/race-racism-covid-this-weeks-world-vs-virus-podcast-devi-sridhar-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Economic Forum's World Vs Virus podcast</a> about why ethnic minorities in Europe and North America were at greater risk from COVID-19.</p><iframe title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1359616632469921792&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2021%2F02%2Fwomen-stem-covid-19-un%2F&theme=light&widgetsVersion=889aa01%3A1612811843556&width=550px" style="position: static; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 561px; flex-grow: 1;"></iframe><h3>Dr Anggia Prasetyoputri</h3><p>Dr Prasetyoputri was awarded the 2020 L'Oréal-UNESCO National Fellowship For Women in Science (FWIS) by L'Oréal Indonesia for her research on <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2020/11/30/indonesian-women-scientists-win-fellowships-for-covid-19-innovations.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bacterial coinfections in COVID-19 patients using swab sample sequencing</a>. COVID-19 patients whose immune systems are already weakened by the virus, are more susceptible to other viruses and bacteria. So Dr Prasetyoputri worked out a quick and simple way to identify these coinfections – and help doctors prescribe the right treatment.</p><p>Reprinted with permission of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.weforum.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Economic Forum</a>. Read the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/women-stem-covid-19-un/" rel="noopener noreferrer">original article</a>.</p>
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Russian scientists study prehistoric animal viruses from the permafrost
Researchers analyze prehistoric viruses in animals dug out from the Siberian permafrost.
21 February, 2021
Credit: Nina Sleptsova/NEFU
- Scientists in a Siberian laboratory in Russia began studying ancient viruses.
- The viruses come from prehistoric animals dug out from the melting permafrost.
- The research lab used to be a center for the development of biological weapons.
<p>A state lab in Russia's Siberia is beginning research into prehistoric viruses preserved in the remains of animals found in melting permafrost.</p><p>Spearheaded by the Vector State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology and the University of Yakutsk, the study will start by analyzing tissues from a prehistoric horse from at least 4,500 ago. These remains were located in the region of Siberia called Yakutia, where Paleolithic animals like mammoths are often found.</p><p>Other prehistoric animals the researchers aim to study include elk, dogs, partridges, hares, rodents, the 28,800 year old Malolyakhovsky woolly mammoth, and more. Some of the remains are up to 50,000 years old. All the animals were found because of the thawing permafrost.</p>
<p>One might wonder if this kind of research is in some way's opening a Pandora's box to ancient viruses, but this it not the first time such viruses have been studied. In fact, with the <span style="background-color: initial;">Arctic warming at twice the global average rate, the melting permafrost is likely to reveal more of its frozen content.</span></p><p>Maxim Cheprasov, head of the Mammoth Museum laboratory at Yakutsk University, explained in a <a href="https://www.s-vfu.ru/news/detail.php?SECTION_ID=2268&ELEMENT_ID=147547" target="_blank">press release</a> that the animals being examined have undergone bacterial studies previously. However, "We are conducting studies on paleoviruses for the first time," Cheprasov shared.</p><p>Vector scientist Dr. Olesya Okhlopkova <a href="https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/hunt-for-ancient-viruses-begins-as-russias-leading-virology-centre-samples-remains-of-ice-age-animals/" target="_blank">explained that</a> "the team of Vector Virology Centre is keen to find paleo-viruses that would allow to start development of paleo-virology in Russia and conduct leading researched in virus evolution."</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY2OTUyOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3MjYxMDY3Nn0.Bl5_k4y6inNxgbNN_loc7dIquAg82r0utL2b6szFgoA/img.jpg?width=980" id="e6219" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5b308fe7a14e4fc2bcdd2caeff0b1def" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="720" data-height="463" />
The world's only known woolly mammoth trunk.
Credit: Semyon Grigoryev/NEFU
<p>So far there has only been limited research on soft issues but the Vector team is looking to monitor the infections in the animals by segregating out total nucleic acids and sequencing the genomes to get more information on the biodiversity and the microorganisms in the ancient beasts.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Should nucleic acids preserve, we ought to be able to get data on their composition and establish how it changed, <a href="https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/hunt-for-ancient-viruses-begins-as-russias-leading-virology-centre-samples-remains-of-ice-age-animals/" target="_blank">shared Okhlopkova</a>. "We will be able to determine the epidemiological potential of currently existing infectious agents."</p><p>During Soviet times, the Vector laboratory, located in Novosibirsk, used to be a center for the development of biological weapons. It's one of the two places in the world that currently stores the smallpox virus. It has also developed Russia's second coronavirus vaccine - the EpiVacCorona.</p>
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One year of COVID-19: What will we learn?
Pandemics have historically given way to social revolution. What will the post-COVID revolution be?
17 February, 2021
Credit: tur-illustration via Adobe Stock / Big Think
- The US is approaching 500,000 COVID-19 deaths. What can we learn from one year of loss and chaos?
- The lessons are clear. Among them are realizing our fragility as a species, our codependence as humans, and the urgent need to move beyond social injustice and inequity.
- As with the Renaissance following the Black Plague of the 14th century and the explosive creativity of the 1920s post Spanish influenza, this is our turn to redefine the course of history. Let's not mess this up.
<p>It's been almost a year now since COVID-19 brought the world to a halt. Everyone has been affected, to a degree that varies from the no-so-much to the profoundly tragic. In March 2020, a few weeks into the pandemic, I wrote an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/opinions/covid-19-will-change-us-as-a-species-gleiser/index.html" target="_blank">opinion piece for CNN</a> where I advanced a few ideas about what changes could unfold due to the challenges ahead. Now that we are well into this mess, and with the growing hope of stepping out of it within the next few months, it's time to reconsider some of these ideas.</p>
First, some facts.
<p>This is the biggest existential threat of our generation. We didn't face the tragedy of two world wars and, so far, escaped the ongoing threat of nuclear warfare. It's important to compare the tragedy that we are going through now with the devastation of the Spanish Influenza of 1918, with numbers that seem almost incomprehensible. It is estimated that about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html" target="_blank">500 million people</a>, some one-third of the world's population then, were infected by the virus. Of those, 50 million—10 percent—died worldwide, 675,000 of which were in the US. In today's numbers, this would mean that about 2.4 billion people would be infected, and 240 million would die. At the time of writing, there have been about 109 million confirmed infections (surely an underestimate) and <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" target="_blank">2.4 million deaths</a>. While the numbers are much better worldwide this time around, this data doesn't make us feel any better. We are approaching half a million deaths in the US, another incomprehensible number, getting closer to the number of US losses during the Spanish flu. Denial, the lack of federal leadership, the top-down silencing of scientific evidence and support, complacency, science denial—these are all to blame.</p>Science is essential.
<p>A global pandemic of this magnitude is first and foremost a public health issue and the first line of defense is through science and public policy working in tandem. The fact that we are faring comparatively better than in 1918 speaks to the power of medicine to save lives: ventilators, antiviral drugs, better sanitation, better understanding of how this virus operates. The numbers could have been much better if health policy measures had not become politically weaponized and added to the current ideological divide with tragic consequences. The fact that we now have extremely effective vaccines, some using entirely novel technologies, speaks again to the power of science to save lives. This is a moment to celebrate science in service of humanity's greater good.</p>We need to rethink who we are.
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY1NDg2My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NzUxMjM1OH0.tvU-1kMIO1hvjow2pNKKe_i3C526z6cKcYXAGvBGeXQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="c1474" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="62c7f27c3a3ce0239daf7342828c0172" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="2000" data-height="1125" />Earth has existed for 4.5 billion years; our species, Homo sapiens, has existed for about 200,000 years.
Credit: desdemona72 via Adobe Stock
<p>The pandemic has exposed our perennial fragility as a species. Nature operates under rules that don't include compassion for loss of life. We are not above nature. Technology may give us the impression that we can control the ways of the world, but we are still very much part of the process of natural selection, getting ill as mutant forms of this virus and others create new public health challenges. Natural selection is an endless battle for survival. We cannot trick it into a permanent stop, only into momentary halts. Indeed, as the environment changes, new forms of life emerge and not all of them will be beneficial to us. The melting of the permafrost is bringing up diseases that hit our distant ancestors and against which we are defenseless. Rethinking who we are calls for humility. Humility in the face of our limited resources, humility in the face of forces that are much more powerful than we are. We can dig deep holes and tunnels through mountains, cut down forests and make oceans retreat. But every one of these actions has a profound environmental impact that costs us dearly. Rethinking who we are calls for a reframing of our relationship to the planet. Earth has existed for 4.5 billion years; our species, <em>Homo sapiens</em>, has existed for about 200,000 years. We have just arrived here. Earth will continue without us. We can't continue without it, space exploration notwithstanding. The future of our project of civilization depends on our rethinking of our planetary role.</p>We are a human hive.
<p>The pandemic has given us ample proof of our codependence. We need each other at all levels; the first responders, the farmers and drivers, the supermarket workers bringing food to our tables. It is said that the stability of society is nine meals away. If we don't eat for 3 days, society unravels. And we need energy, supplies, banking systems, clear roads, clean cities, political stability, news, and fast internet. In a beehive, all workers contribute to the survival of the hive as a whole, every job is important. We are a human hive, and must respect all labor, and ensure that all workers are properly compensated. To live with dignity is not a luxury, it is a right.</p>We must rethink social structure and inequality.
<p>The uneven toll of the pandemic has exposed systemic racism and social injustice to levels that can no longer be tolerated or overlooked by anyone, and certainly by those in power. Since at least the origins of agrarian civilization, our ancestors divided into tribes so as to guarantee social cohesion against battling economies. Defined mostly by religious beliefs and social exclusion, such tribal walls have been the signpost of cultures across the globe. We now have a different view of humanity's place on this planet, our togetherness exposed to us in ways that many dislike. A virus doesn't care what you believe in, the color of your skin or how much money you have in the bank. It will attack opportunistically and hijack your cellular material to reproduce. But the extent to which people can protect themselves against such attacks does reveal societal inequities in transparent ways. If you share an apartment with eight people and must go to work every day, taking public transportation to get there, you will be walking into the war zone without a weapon or shelter. </p>We need to rethink how we work.
<p>With fast internet, it's abundantly clear that much of the dislocations to and from work, or frequent trips to distant places for meetings, is unnecessary, costly, and detrimental to the environment. Huge expenses with business real estate can be avoided, and funneled into higher compensation for workers and better computer and connectivity equipment. The notion of a downtown where people go to do business is quickly becoming obsolete. Travel will be mostly for fun and adventure. However, for this to become the new normal, fast connectivity and better equipment must be accessible to all, like electricity and clean water (there's some work still to be done here for sure.) Otherwise, we will be creating another tribal divide (it's here already), between those who have fast access to information and resources and those who don't.</p><p>The Black Death of the 14th century helped usher in the Renaissance, a spectacular blossoming of human creativity. The Spanish influenza was followed by the Roaring Twenties, an era of explosive cultural dynamism that brought us jazz, Art Deco, and a renewal of our capacity to celebrate life and be productive: automobiles, telephones, aviation, the film industry, electrical appliances, rapid industrial growth. What will be our post-pandemic revolution? The old ways are about to go; they are going already. There is a new world order emerging, the signs are everywhere. Not everyone is willing to see them, or to embark into this new venture. But I hope that those who do will inspire many to follow them. All this loss has to swing around and usher a new page in human history.</p>
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Can better data defeat the next pandemic?
Northwell Health has built an elaborate data system to track and fight COVID-19. If this system goes global, it could prevent a future pandemic.
27 January, 2021
- This coronavirus pandemic is very much still ongoing, but now is the time to discern its lessons so that we are more prepared for the next one. Michael Dowling, president and CEO of Northwell Health, shares how their health system is collecting and utilizing vast amounts of health data to best care for patients and to quickly identify and manage COVID-19 surges.
- "I would say that we probably had the most elaborate dashboard of any health system dealing with this crisis," says Dowling. Northwell Health has also developed a "local surveillance tracking system" which has allowed them to react to COVID spikes early. Dowling hopes that these systems will be adopted by and improved upon by other networks.
- In addition to improvements to New York State's illness surveillance system, Dowling hopes to see a more global approach to fighting the pandemic where infection data is tracked shared between nations and warning signs can be acted on early enough to avoid another crisis.
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<div class="amazon-assets-widget__title" style="display: block;">Leading Through a Pandemic: The Inside Story of Humanity, Innovation, and Lessons Learned During the COVID-19 Crisis</div>
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