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The Book of Why: How a 'causal revolution' is shaking up science
A much-needed "causal revolution" has arrived in Judea Pearl's 'The Book of Why'. But despite vast improvements over "trad stats", there's cause for concern over logic-losing numbers.
1. The Book of Why brings a “new science” of causes. Judea Pearl’s causology graphically dispels deep-seated statistical confusion (but heterogeneity-hiding abstractions and logic-losing numbers lurk).
2. Pearl updates old correlation-isn’t-causation wisdom with “causal questions can never be answered from data alone.” Sorry, Big Data (and A.I.) fans: “No causes in, no causes out” (Nancy Cartwright).
3. Because many causal processes can produce the same data/stats, it’s evolutionarily fitting that “the bulk of human knowledge is organized around causal, not probabilistic relationships.” Crucially, Pearl grasps that “the grammar of probability [& stats]… is insufficient.”
4. But trad stats isn’t causal “model-free,” it implicitly imposes “causal salad” models—independent factors, jumbled, simple additive effects (widely method-and-tool presumed ... often utterly unrealistic).
6. Paradoxically, precise-seeming numbers can generate logic-fogging forces. The following reminders might counter rote-method-produced logic-losing numbers.
7. Causes of changes in X, need not be causes of X. That’s often obvious in known-causality cases (pills lowering cholesterol aren’t its cause) but routinely obfuscated in analysis-of-variance research. Correlating variation percentages to factor Y often doesn’t “explain” Y’s role (+see “red brake risk”). And stats factor choice can reverse effects (John Ioannidis).
8. Analysis-of-variance training encourages fallacy-of-division miscalculations. Many phenomena are emergently co-caused and resist meaningful decomposition. What % of car speed is “caused’ by engine or fuel? What % of drumming is “caused” by drum or drummer? What % of soup is “caused” by its recipe?
9. Akin to widespread statistical-significance misunderstandings, lax phrasing like “control for” and “held constant” spurs math-plausible but impossible-in-practice manipulations (~“rigor distoris”).
10. Many phenomena aren’t causally monolithic “natural kinds.” They evade classic causal-logic categories like “necessary and sufficient,” by exhibiting “unnecessary and sufficient” cause. They’re multi-etiology/route/recipe mixed bags (see Eiko Fried’s 10,377 paths to Major Depression).
12. Pearl fears trad-stats-centric probability-intoxicated thinking hides its staticness, whereas cause-driven approaches illuminate changing scenarios. Causality always beats stats (which encode unnovel cases). Known causal-composition rules (your system’s syntax) make novel (stats-defying) cases solvable.
13. “Causal revolution” tools overcome severe trad-stats limits, but they retain rush-to-the-numbers risks (is everything relevant squeezable into path-coefficients?) and type-mixing abstractions (e.g., Pearl’s diagram lines treat them equivalently but causes work differently in physics versus social systems).
14. “Cause” is a suitcase concept, requiring a richer causal-role vocabulary. Recall Aristotle’s cause kinds—material, formal, proximate, ultimate. Their qualitative distinctness ensures quantitative incomparability. They resist squashing into a single number (ditto needed Aristotle-extending roles).
15. Causal distance always counts. Intermediate-step unknowns mean iffier logic/numbers (e.g., genes typically exert many-causal-steps-removed highly co-causal effects).
16. Always ask: Is a single causal structure warranted? Or casual stability? Or close-enough causal closure? Are system components (roughly) mono-responsive?
17. Skilled practitioners respect their tools’ limits. A thinking-toolkit of context-matched rule-of-thumb maxims might counter rote-cranked-out methods and heterogeneity-hiding logic-losing numbers.
The team caught a glimpse of a process that takes 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
- In Italy, a team of scientists is using a highly sophisticated detector to hunt for dark matter.
- The team observed an ultra-rare particle interaction that reveals the half-life of a xenon-124 atom to be 18 sextillion years.
- The half-life of a process is how long it takes for half of the radioactive nuclei present in a sample to decay.
A study looks at the ingredients of a good scare.
Catching fear in a bottle<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNzg1Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyOTQwMTcyMn0.WtpJ1E_dhK2o09fBpKARynj4_p5NXeklgsXsbd7xr9w/img.jpg?width=980" id="8ff51" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f10dd9188b173f4a36e85e9325507c6b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Credit: Photo Boards/Unsplash<p>Previous studies have tracked physiological signs of fear arousal, but none have established a one-to-one correlation between that arousal and specific, actual fear events.</p><p>Andersen says that much of the research has been conducted in lab settings with weak fear stimuli, observing subjects as they experience things like scary videos. Scares in these situations tend to be weak and difficult to measure. Even harder to track in these situations is the link between enjoyment and fear. </p>
Eyes everywhere<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/109695164" width="100%" height="480" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="267ba87cfb8591ed5830499574d2272a"></iframe><p>Andersen and his colleagues conducted their experiments at <a href="https://dystopia.dk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dystopia</a> Haunted House, a commercial attraction in Vejle, Denmark constructed in an old, run-down factory. The Recreational Fear Lab has a long-standing partnership with the spook shack.</p><p>They outfitted 100 volunteers with heart monitors and sent them on their terrifying way through the 50-room horror mansion. The facility incorporates a number of fright mechanisms including frequent jump scares in which a sudden threat takes a visitor by surprise.</p><p>Researchers surreptitiously observed their participants on closed-circuit video as they made their way through the attraction. They tracked each individual's scares, scoring them for intensity according to their visible reactions. After exiting the attraction, individuals self-reported their experiences in the haunted house.</p><p>Combining these self-reports with observer notes and each participant's heart-rate data gave the researchers subjective, behavioral, and physiological insights into the ways in which fear is experienced, and when it's a good thing or not.</p>
A pair of inverted U-shapes<p>In analyzing their data, the researchers saw two separate inverted u-shape curves. One depicted participants' enjoyment based on their self-reports and observed behavior. A similar u-curve was detected in their heart rates showing that just the right amount of heartbeat acceleration is associated with fun, but too much is too much. It's the terror Goldilocks zone.</p><p>Says Andersen, "If people are not very scared, they do not enjoy the attraction as much, and the same happens if they are too scared. Instead, it seems to be the case that a 'just-right' amount of fear is central for maximizing enjoyment."</p><p>The research suggests that being scared is enjoyable when it represents just a quick minor physiological deviation from one's normal state. When it goes on too long, however, or triggers too severe a physiological change, it becomes disturbing. Game over.</p><p>Andersen notes that this is not dissimilar to the factors known to make interpersonal play enjoyable: just the right amount of uncertainty and surprise. These are, maybe not coincidentally, also the ingredients of a successful joke.</p>
A meteorite that smashed into a frozen lake in Michigan may explain the origins of life on Earth, finds study.
- A new paper reveals a meteorite that crashed in Michigan in 2018 contained organic matter.
- The findings support the panspermia theory and could explain the origins of life on Earth.
- The organic compounds on the meteorite were well-preserved.
Meteor streaks through Michigan sky<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="80b7f30820153b35fc515592d7475f53"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EPu2qnqMYBo?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
The meteorite that smashed into Strawberry Lake carried pristine extraterrestrial organic compounds.
Credit: Field Museum