COVID-19 is accelerating the pace of automation and the need for UBI
The pandemic has given us an early glimpse at how truly disruptive the fourth industrial revolution may be, and the measures we'll need to support human dignity.
12 May, 2020
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
- The coronavirus crisis has acted as a catalyst for two powerful transformative forces: automation and universal basic income.
- These two intertwined forces will undoubtedly gain steam, writes Frederick Kuo, and the pandemic will hasten the acceptance of them from a scale of decades to years or mere months.
- This crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future could look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure.
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<p>The coronavirus pandemic has sent the global economy into a tailspin posing a twisted choice to humankind between economic survival or our very health. Markets are crashing, numbers of infected people and deaths soaring by the day and a massive part of the global economy forced into a standstill as people shelter in place. Looking out the window, the world still looks the same. The sun is still shining, the leaves still rustle in the wind and birds still chirp merrily as if nothing was amiss. However there is no mistaking a collective sense of mourning that the world is feeling as normal daily routines and freedoms we took for granted have come to a sudden halt. Amidst the constant barrage of gloomy news however, this crisis shall inevitably pass. But the world post-COVID-19 will not be the same; the crisis has acted as a catalyst for powerful transformative forces such as <a href="https://thewire.in/tech/inequality-technology-robotic-age" target="_blank">automation</a> and the need for universal basic income, two intertwined forces that will undoubtedly gain steam.</p>
COVID-19 will expedite automation
<p>As the mobility of human beings grinds to a halt due to public health directives and fears of infection, our need for food, resources and social connection has forced us to increasingly rely on technology to fill urgent gaps. In the United States, Amazon is seizing this opportunity to further entrench its <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-is-only-making-jeff-bezos-and-amazon-more-powerful/" target="_blank">domination</a>, while in China, robots are being deployed to serve those in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/how-china-is-using-robots-and-telemedicine-to-combat-the-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">quarantine</a>. In a world where fear of contact with other humans has become pervasive, businesses that can adapt quickly and significantly automate their supply lines and cut points of human contact stand to thrive in this new market. </p><p>Whereas before this crisis, the need for automation was mainly driven by the desire for increased profits and improved efficiency, the momentous shift in public consciousness today regarding simple human contact may make automation almost a necessity for many businesses to survive. When humans trust a robot to handle or deliver their food or goods more than they trust another human, or when crowded workplaces present public health hazards, jobs for humans will be unceremoniously eliminated. Given existing technologies, experts have estimated <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/24/the-robots-are-ready-as-the-covid-19-recession-spreads/" target="_blank">36 million jobs</a> may be vulnerable, ranging from trucking and delivery to food service and repetitive white collar jobs, the labor market may face a significant restructure driven by <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/31/21200010/coronavirus-recession-automation-brookings-mark-muro" target="_blank">new technology</a> and a radically altered market for those technologies. In a recent survey conducted by auditing firm <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/bosses-speed-up-automation-as-virus-keeps-workers-home" target="_blank">Ernst & Young</a>, more than half of company bosses throughout 45 countries had begun implementing existing plans to fast track automation.</p><blockquote>This crisis has compacted the timeline of a gradual acceptance of an automated future from years into months. </blockquote>
<p>The crisis of unemployment has become real for tens of millions locked down around the world. Although this phase is likely to be temporary with normality expected to return by the third quarter, the process of entrenching automation in our daily lives will be radically pushed forward. This crisis has compacted the timeline of a gradual acceptance of an automated future from years into months. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/21/amazons-first-automated-store-opens-to-public-on-monday" target="_blank">Seattle</a>, Amazon has pioneered Amazon Go, a small grocery that relies on cameras and sensors to charge customers for what they buy instead of a checkout line. With Amazon already in control of a major grocery chain, Whole Foods, one could imagine that this little, fully automated store could serve as a template for a nationwide expansion of this technology, thus reducing the once-vital role of the cashier nearly overnight. Similar rollouts of automation models will likely follow in the coming years, affecting warehouse employees, delivery people, food service personnel and more.</p>
Mainstream acceptance of UBI
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="44c33c426c79ad9f2c6148d8f9f63bc4"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UEsK7hpIkVI?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>In early 2019, <a href="https://time.com/5804656/ubi-yang-coronavirus/" target="_blank">Andrew Yang</a> began gaining news coverage regarding the central theme of his presidential campaign: $1,000 a month in universal basic income (UBI) dispersed to every American. His primary argument for the necessity of this safety net rested on the belief that the coming age of automation was about to inundate vast scores of our current jobs with a shrinking percentage of elite tech corporations gobbling up more and more of the profit. When Yang first introduced his vision, it seemed to belong to a remote dystopian future with little relevance to the booming economy and low unemployment figures that was the reality until only weeks ago. On the right, he was lambasted as a communist seeking to turn American citizens into dependents to the state. On the left, his ideas were dismissed as other Democratic hopefuls touted the Green New Deal and job programs.</p><p>Fast forward to today and Andrew Yang's UBI theory has moved straight into the forefront. Trump, perhaps cognizant that the "Yang Gang" pulled a great deal of support from his own supporters, quickly recognized the popularity of his ideas and the need to provide supplemental income to Americans as shelter-in-place directives began to take hold throughout the country. The massive <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/coronavirus-checks-direct-deposits-are-coming-here-s-everything-you-n1168936" target="_blank">$2 trillion</a> coronavirus emergency stimulus will provide every American earning $75,000 or less, regardless of current employment, a check of $1,200 per person and $500 per child for the duration of the crisis. There has been little debate over the necessity of this measure because it has proven to be widely popular to the public, regardless of political standing. It lifts some of the immediate and pressing need to work and helps take some of the edge off from isolating at home, thus contributing to a quicker resolution of this health crisis by sending fewer people out into the streets.</p><blockquote>Although the pandemic and the stimulus check is temporary, this crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future would look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure. </blockquote>
<p>Although the stimulus package is a stopgap measure to deal with this crisis, its absolute necessity during this crisis has validated Yang's prophetic vision of a dystopian future where work no longer becomes possible for huge swathes of the American people. The reality is that the after effects of this crisis will be felt for at least months after the pandemic ends. There is little security for either the business owners or employees of food service businesses, bars, hair and nail salons and essentially any business that requires large crowds of people to gather and interact. To the initial detractors of UBI who argued that the program would breed laziness and a welfare state, the reality is that for most workers thrown into the sea of uncertainty, receiving a stimulus check will provide a small lifeline but will ultimately be of little solace to individuals who are accustomed to earning far more and who derive a sense of pride and satisfaction from their jobs. For most of those impacted by loss of employment, supplemental income in the form of a UBI helps take the edge off but it is ultimately no replacement for having a job or business.</p><p>Although the pandemic and the stimulus check is temporary, this crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future would look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure. Automation and artificial intelligence are coming and will significantly alter the way we work, shop, eat and socialize. As society experiences the disruptive force of technology and draws on our collective experiences fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, UBI may become a permanent fixture of our political economy as well.</p>
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A.I. reveals which workers are most likely to quit their jobs
A.I. hasn't come for our jobs just yet, but it can figure out who is looking for a new one.
25 February, 2020
- A new study analyzes mountains of data to see which industries have the highest level of employee volatility.
- Volatility isn't always a bad thing, but it is always good to know about.
- Moving to new jobs within the same industry is often a route to higher wages.
Have you ever felt like its time to look for another job but weren't quite sure what prompted it? Conversely, have you ever worried that the employees at your firm might be having that feeling en masse? A new study that uses artificial intelligence to determine the circumstances that encourage people to seek new opportunities elsewhere might clear things up for you.
Not precisely the AI-related employment shock you were thinking of.
<p>The <a href="https://www.workforcelogiq.com/2020/02/12/new-predictive-labor-market-report-workforce-volatility-across-industries-states-cities-and-job-functions/" target="_blank">study</a>, carried out by the <a href="https://www.workforcelogiq.com/about/" target="_blank">Workforce Logiq</a> company, uses data from "40,000 sources, 1 billion+ monthly interactions, and analytics on over 100 million candidates and 8 million organizations" in combination with A.I. analysis and a variety of models to determine how a variety of local and global factors contribute to employment stability or volatility.</p><p>The model gives every industry, company, and region included in the study a Talent Retention Risk (TRR) score. A higher the TRR, the higher the employee volatility. With it, upwards of 2000 sorts of data, including economic information, news about the industry and company, leadership changes, and other factors are accessed. </p><p>The findings, organized here into a chart, show which industries are more at risk for volatility and which are less so:</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjc5Mjg1MS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzE0NjM4N30.yRBaLeUrdBFHiLqqEe8tPO11grxoGTeJFK2k-r-zvow/img.png?width=980" id="b0274" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="69fcb418eca54ed543e80bedba974668" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="472" data-height="663" /><p>A score of less than 35 is low, between 25 and 49 is average, between 49 and 69 is above average, and above 70 is rather high. Industries with high scores see higher amounts of volatility in their workforce. They can expect to spend more time trying to find new talent and will have the most difficulty holding on to employees, which can be costly. <br></p> Workforce Logiq also made a map showing how much workers in each state would be interested in looking for another job or in unsolicited recruitment messages:
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjc5Mjg1Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjk2MDk5NX0.e5FrQO7g27iXOCrXSSZOfB17LVEy7Ypdlow5xm6mD7Y/img.png?width=980" id="45290" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f2aff6b333538a0771f64312609390c5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1089" data-height="697" />
Workforce Logiq
<p>The authors point out that Mississippi has no Fortune 500 companies in it and as a result have little headhunting to drive up their score. On the other end of the spectrum, New York has a ton. While the authors conclude that higher scores relate to more opportunities overall, they also point out that the industries with the highest volatility, as seen above, tend are concentrated in the same areas. </p>Why are some industries dealing with much higher scores than others?
<p>In some cases, these scores are the result of multiple industry-level issues. The mining industry has a very high score, the highest on the list, partly because of a decrease in demand for coal. </p><p>However, a high TRR score isn't always a sign that things are horrible for the industry or at a particular firm. It could also mean that the industry is in a situation where talented workers are willing and able to move around. As individuals, software engineers were found to be very open to new opportunities—a sign of how many opportunities for advancement there are for them.</p><p>The authors of the study also mentioned that some of the high scores are typical for an economy that is close to full employment, which is hardly a bad thing. Recruiters are the most willing to respond positively to an unsolicited message from another recruiter. In this economy, headhunters are all but required and the offers are getting better. </p><p>Not everyone is so ready for job switching, though. Workers in nursing, education, and public safety (industries with the lowest TRR scores) tend to be comfortable where they are. This is caused by a variety of factors, including the emotional elements of the job, the higher levels of interest in a good working environment for people in these sectors, and the often high level of investment that people in these fields put into their communities.</p>Why are people so open to recruiters reaching out or switching jobs on their own?
<div class="rm-shortcode" data-media_id="bCPwow0O" data-player_id="FvQKszTI" data-rm-shortcode-id="0a17d9cbc6fae7ab7cd722feedc1a992"> <div id="botr_bCPwow0O_FvQKszTI_div" class="jwplayer-media" data-jwplayer-video-src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/bCPwow0O-FvQKszTI.js"> <img src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/thumbs/bCPwow0O-1920.jpg" class="jwplayer-media-preview" /> </div> <script src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/bCPwow0O-FvQKszTI.js"></script> </div> <p>It is often easier to make more money by changing companies than to wait it out at your current job. According to research by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/workers-in-these-5-fields-are-most-likely-to-quit-their-jobs.html" target="_blank">Gartner</a>, companies that are looking for new talent elsewhere can be willing to offer as much as a 15 percent increase in pay. At the same time, yearly raises tend to be limited to two or three percent for workers who stay put. This is a recognized trend and a common argument against non-competition clauses in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/24/non-compete-clause-low-wage-workers-lawsuits-rights" target="_blank">contracts</a>.</p><p>Artificial intelligence is making it possible to review and analyze much larger amounts of data than ever before. In this case, it provides a way to look at data from both local and global trends to determine what industries are at continued risk for high turnover and who stands to benefit from it. </p>
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It's the age of automation and the robots are coming. But for what?
Discover the peril and potential of an automated robotic world.
29 April, 2019
Photo credit: Hugo Amaral/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Image
- Journalist Andrés Oppenheimer, columnist and member of a Pulitzer Prize-winning team explores the cutting edge of automation.
- From South Korean robot schools, Silicon valley futurist predictions and automated Japanese restaurants, this book shows us that the future of work is almost here.
- Already replacing a growing number of workers while also creating new roles, the concept of employment is becoming even more dynamic.
<p>Alarmed and somewhat intrigued by a University of Oxford study that predicted<a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf" target="_blank"> 47 percent of jobs</a> would be replaced by robots or intelligent computers, journalist Andrés Oppenheimer set out to discover what the future of work held for the potential casualties and benefactors of this new era. </p><p>Robotics and other assorted automated processes are already radically changing the nature of what we consider work and employment. Unlike past eras of paradigmatic technological shifts, where entire workforces were able to quickly recover and evolve into new burgeoning fields — the coming age of automation isn't going to be as seamless of a transition. </p><p>In <em>The Robots Are Coming! The Future of Jobs in the Age of Automation, </em>Oppenheimer casts a wide net of inquiry into a broad and multidisciplinary search for the future of what's to come. The result of years of tenacious research, experiences and thrilling conversations, this book leaves no tech stone unturned.</p><p>Without devolving into a buzzword jargon fest, Oppenheimer adequately sketches out and name drops nearly every technology experts and pundits alike think will usher in the new age. </p><p>Whether it's machine learning, A.I., augmented and virtual realities or the need for a universal basic income — this book name checks the aforementioned tech and then assaults it from all fronts. Is it hype? Where are we in terms of implementation? What do the experts say and what do the detractors think? How will this affect the job market and notions of employment?<span></span></p><h1>The Robots Are Coming!</h1><div class="rm-shortcode amazon-assets-widget" data-rm-shortcode-id="8KKZ9J1556474609" contenteditable="false">
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<h1>What're they coming for? Everything.</h1><p>Timeframes, statistics, and opinion tended to oscillate depending on who the author was talking to at the time. There were many instances cited that went against all common fears of automation displacing jobs. For example, in 2016 Amazon increased their transport robots from 30,000 to 45,000. Speculators at the time figured this would result in the loss of jobs. On the contrary, more than 100,000 new jobs were added in the next 18 months. </p><p>In our present time these types of employment increases are relatively common. But they're also equally matched with a host of jobs in all industries being lost to automation. And they're not just confined to low-level labor and service jobs. They're affecting all levels of work. </p><p>Head up to the high towers of Wall Street and you'll even see financial professionals replaced by robo-analysts using big data. These aren't displacing the lowest of the workforce, but knocking out big-time financial advisors that use to make an average of $350,000 to $500,000 a year. </p><p>Even duties in professions such as journalism and law aren't safe from being deferred to automation. Andrês remarked that in just the past few years the stunning speed of automated transcription services completely changed the way he conducted interviews. The book's interviews themselves were transcribed and largely translated by A.I. methods. </p><p>A growing force of bots are also writing a rising number of articles due to a technology called Heliograf. What would have taken hundreds of journalists covering local elections, was done with just one templating bot. In 2016 the <em>Washington Post </em>was able to cover over 500 local elections with this technology. </p><p>If one thing is perfectly clear, it's that automation and intelligent computers are leaving nothing behind and popping up in the least expected places. Understandably, this has got a lot of people worried. </p><p>Anders Sandberg from Oxford comically, but nonetheless genuinely, put it this way: </p><blockquote><em>It's quite simple: if your job can be easily explained it can be automated, if it can't it wont. </em></blockquote><p>The future of work is going to require a massive shift in skills, mindset and know-how. Soft skills, being able to work with a steady flow of interactive data and ability to make actionable insights from the data-driven world are just some of the traits of a future workforce.</p><p>For those that aren't going to make the cut, they'll need to shift their mindset on the psychological and cultural notion of work and employment in the first place. The many futurists, serious economists, and, at times, the author himself truly believe that a universal basic income needs to be implemented.</p><h1>A new mindset for the future</h1><p>In an interview with philosopher Nick Bostrom, there was a discussion about the importance and self-worth that so many people receive from their employment. This he believes is a new phenomenon and one of the major problems we'll have to face socially. </p><p>Bostrom mentions that at one point, the aristocratic classes of old were able to live worthy lives by engaging in pleasurable and fulfilling experiences. It's inferred from his conversation that something like this will need to take place in the mindset of a larger sect of the population. With the prospect of an entire futuristic world not needed for work, we seriously need to reconsider the human enterprise and the notions of self-worth tied to employment. </p><p>All futurist utopian ideals aside, the nature of schooling, vocational work and employment seem to be following an age-old trend – omnipotent progress always rears its head and usurps the status quo. Work will change with the times in absurdly unique ways in which even this book and any one else alive today will not be able to predict. </p><p>Oppenheimer mentions how jobs like iPhone developer, Cloud data analyst and so on emerged from our most recent inventions and innovations. Less than two decades ago these words would have been gibberish to anyone hearing them. The same will hold true for the jobs in the next few decades. </p><p>There are a number of things that no foreseeable robotic intelligence will ever be able to compete with. Forget fantasy notions of singularities and eschatological coming of days through superintelligence – these things are a different thing to worry about entirely. The reality of the situation is that new jobs are coming and a whole lot of jobs we've had for years are never going to return. </p><p>Dealing with the inability to reskill a large amount of the populace will be a major problem in the coming years. </p><p>The author sees himself as both techno optimist in the long-run, but a techno-pessimist in the short term. </p><p>If there's one final takeaway from this book it's that the threat or rather promise of automation is real and an inevitability. There's no use fighting against it. The only thing we can do is evolve alongside it.</p>
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Is a Well-Paying Job the next Entitlement Program?
The Job Guarantee is a policy proposal that would have the state function as an employer of last resort.
02 August, 2017
George Grantham Bain Collection (Library of Congress)
Here at Big Think we like to talk about the basic income guarantee. While the basic income is an interesting idea, objections to it abound. Also, it isn’t the only idea for ending poverty making the rounds. While the basic income gets a lot of press, there's another idea: the Job Guarantee.
<p><strong>What is it?</strong></p> <p><a href="http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2009/08/job-guarantee.html" target="_blank">The Job Guarantee</a> is a policy proposal that would have the state function as an employer of last resort; always having public works projects in action to assure that any person looking for work is going to be able to find a job. That job might not be glamorous or conveniently located, but it will exist.</p> <p>Such a plan would not end unemployment outright, but would rather assure that the rate is always near a low target. While most proposals set the target unemployment rate near three percent, that rate has been as high as six percent in others. It is based not only on economic questions, but also on the pragmatic question of how many people would take the work offered.</p> <p><strong>Is this a new idea?</strong><br> <br> No, the idea was formalized by <a href="http://www.billmitchell.org/" target="_blank">Bill Mitchel</a> and <a href="https://worldcat.org/identities/lccn-n85-315194/" target="_blank">Joan Muysken</a> decades ago. However, the principle goes back to the New Deal in the United States when agencies like the Civilian Conservation Corps and WPA offered work to the unemployed when the market failed to provide it. In the United Kingdom it goes back to the work of William Beveridge, notably the book <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Employment_in_a_Free_Society" target="_blank">Total Employment in a Free Society,</a><em> </em>which<em> </em>reached the conclusion that the state could assure total employment by a variety of means consistent with a liberal, capitalist, society.</p> <p><strong>Has it been tried?</strong></p> <p>In the United States, the bill known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey%E2%80%93Hawkins_Full_Employment_Act" target="_blank">Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act</a><strong> </strong>states the Federal Government <em>can</em> institute this policy- <strong>but no action has ever been taken along these lines </strong>despite unemployment often being above the bill’s suggested level of three percent.</p> <p>Currently, India has the <strong>National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, </strong>which aims to provide work in impoverished areas. While criticism the projects has been made, <a href="http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl2601/stories/20090116260100400.htm" target="_blank">independent studies show</a> it does have a <a href="ftp://ftp.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp6858.pdf" target="_blank">positive effect on the people and areas it serves.</a> It is, however, less comprehensive than many theorists would have liked. Though it does employ many people and provide needed infrastructure work in isolated areas.</p> <p><strong>What are the upsides?</strong></p> <p>The benefits of attempts at job guarantees have included reduced poverty and the ills associated with unemployment, including issues with health, family problems, drug use, and high crime rates. Supporters also argue that it can lead to stability of both prices and economic growth by assuring the unemployment rate never spikes.</p> <p><strong>Well, this sounds pretty good, what are the downsides?</strong></p> <p>There are a few, one objection of course is that such a policy calls for major government intervention in the economy; an idea opposed by many people for various reasons. The project could also cause inflation if not managed properly. The risk of politicians using assured employment to create a pool of loyal voters has also been a hurdle to the creation of new projects.</p> <p>There is also a practical problem to consider. While it may be possible to assure that there are more open job positions than unemployed workers at any time, it may prove impossible for that work to be useful, attractive, and accessible. While there will be a demand for people to pave roads in Northern Alaska at some point, it will prove difficult to get people to move there to do it at a low cost. At the same time, you could employ everyone digging and filling in holes, but would have a hard time selling it to voters as being useful.</p> <p>And more recently, <a href="http://bigthink.com/philip-perry/47-of-jobs-in-the-next-25-years-will-disappear-according-to-oxford-university" target="_blank">the question of how automation would influence attempts to have productive work for everyone is also currently unsolved.</a></p> <p>How we are going to organize the economy is always a pressing question. With the pressures of automation and globalization becoming stronger all the time, the question takes on new dimensions. Will the right to have a job be the next freedom enjoyed by people all over the world? Or will the idea end up as a trivial notion in a history of economics class?</p>
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Here's when machines will take your job, as predicted by A.I. gurus
An MIT study predicts when artificial intelligence will take over for humans in different occupations.
04 June, 2017
Photo credit: YOSHIKAZU TSUNO / AFP / Getty Images
While technology develops at exponential speed, transforming how we go about our everyday tasks and extending our lives, it also offers much to worry about. In particular, many top minds think that automation will cost humans their employment, with up to 47% of all jobs gone in the next 25 years. And chances are, this number could be even higher and the massive job loss will come earlier.
<p>So when will your job become obsolete? Researchers at the University of Oxford surveyed the world's best artificial intelligence experts to find out when exactly machines will be better at humans in various occupations.</p> <p><a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/team/katja-grace/" target="_blank"></a></p> <p><a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/team/katja-grace/" target="_blank">Katja Grace</a> from Oxford's <a href="https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/" target="_blank">Future of Humanity Institute</a> led the team that gathered responses from 352 academics and industry experts in machine learning. Then they calculated the median responses to come up with some concrete numbers.</p> <p>In the next 10 years, we should have A.I. do better than humans in translating languages (by<strong> 2024</strong>), writing high-school-level essays (by <strong>2026</strong>), writing top 40 songs (by <strong>2028</strong>) and driving trucks. And while the consensus may be that driving trucks may come by <strong>2027</strong>, it's easy to predict that this could happen even sooner, with top tech entrepreneurs like Elon Musk constantly pushing the envelope and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15292102/tesla-elon-musk-semi-tractor-trailer-truck-september" target="_blank">promising</a> these innovations earlier. </p> <p>A chore that would take less time - folding laundry should be a breeze for A.I. by <strong>2022</strong>. Other tasks might take longer, but still within the foreseeable future. It's likely you'll be around for these. We should get A.I.-driven machines in retail by <strong>2031</strong>. By <strong>2049</strong>, A.I. should be writing New York Times bestsellers and performing surgeries by <strong>2053</strong>.</p> <p>Overall, A.I. shoud be better than humans at pretty much everything in about <strong>45 years. </strong></p> <p>Here's the full chart:</p> <p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xODMzOTY0MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2ODE1NTQ3Nn0.8DHSkMGTrDTXAx3gYwnUJ73IBCs_ZKgq5vi7zlDOjFQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="81389" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c8c996196a671337c67a7d247072b75b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image"></p> <p>As <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607970/experts-predict-when-artificial-intelligence-will-exceed-human-performance/" target="_blank">MIT Technology Review points out</a>, these predictions have a way of coming earlier. A.I. wasn't supposed to beat humans at the game of Go until 2027 and that happened back in 2015. In fact, it took Google's DeepMind just two years to come up with the necessary tech, instead of the 12 that was predicted.</p> <p>On the other hand, as 40 years is an average person's working life, predictions that extend past that might be unreliable as they are based on technology in which the experts might not have enough practical knowledge.</p> <p>Interestingly, there is a difference in how experts from different parts of the world view the future. Asian researchers put the A.I. takeover in <strong>just 30 years</strong>, while their North American counterparts see that happening in<strong> about 74 years</strong>. Full automation of labor is expected in <strong>under 125 years</strong>.</p> <p>You can check out Grace's paper <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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