This epidemiologist predicted the coronavirus pandemic 14 years ago

Lawrence "Larry" Brilliant, an American epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, warned about the inevitability of a global pandemic in a now-famous 2006 TED Talk.

Lawrence Brilliant

Lawrence Brilliant


Paul Zimmerman
/ Getty
  • Lawrence "Larry" Brilliant is an American epidemiologist who's worked for the United Nations, Google and the World Health Organization.
  • In addition to warning the public about the threat of pandemics in 2006, Brilliant also served as a consultant for the 2011 film "Contagion".
  • Brilliant says he's "firmly confident" that the steps the U.S. is currently taking will help to flatten the curve, and provide scientists with more time to develop a vaccine or prophylactic.


If there's one person who wasn't caught off-guard by the coronavirus pandemic, it's likely Larry Brilliant, the American epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox.

Brilliant has spent years warning about the threat of pandemics — and our unpreparedness for them — in his positions with the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the Skoll Global Threats Fund, Google, and other organizations.

In 2006, Brilliant gave a TED Talk titled "Help Me Stop Pandemics," in which explained how the epidemiology community was predicting that a devastating pandemic was likely to occur over the next couple generations. This pandemic would have "almost unthinkable" consequences, including millions of deaths and a global depression.

Brilliant also took his warning to popular culture. He served as a consultant for the 2011 film "Contagion", a thriller about a virus that tears across the globe, killing millions and sparking public panic and disorder. Like the new coronavirus, the virus in the movie originated in bats.

In 2017, Brilliant spoke to Big Think about the threat of zoonotic viruses, which are those that transfer from animals to humans.

"It's not a question of if we will have a pandemic, it's a question of when," Brilliant said. "The odds that something like that happens increases to the extent that we are not prepared that we do not increase our ability to find every case as soon as it jumps from an animal to a human, that we are not able to respond quickly by whatever means we have at the time."

The next pandemic is inevitable. Are we prepared? | Larry Brilliant

As of March 23, the novel coronavirus has killed about 15,000 and infected 370,000 people worldwide. In some countries, the virus continues to spread at an alarming rate. One reason is that governments weren't prepared to execute the most important virus-containment strategies that Brilliant outlined in his 2006 TED Talk: early detection and early response.

"It's really hard to get people to listen," Brilliant told Wired. "I mean, Trump pushed out the admiral on the National Security Council, who was the only person at that level who's responsible for pandemic defense. With him went his entire downline of employees and staff and relationships. And then Trump removed the [early warning] funding for countries around the world."

Brilliant offered South Korea as an example of a relatively effective government response to the pandemic.

"If you take a look at what South Korea's doing, I think it comes as close to radical transparency as we've seen before, where the South Korean government is sending out text messages to every individual in the country saying: There is a corona case near you. Here's what you can do. Please tell us how you're doing," Brilliant said in a broadcast from the Council on Foreign Relations. "Publishing the daily counts, publishing the mistakes that are being made, that's the best way to deal with a pandemic—radical transparency, the opposite of weaponizing information."

Looking to the future, Brilliant seemed confident that the global community could stem the spread of the virus if individuals and governments take steps to flatten the curve.

"I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds," Brilliant told Wired. "I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event."

Live on Thursday: Learn innovation with 3-star Michelin chef Dominique Crenn

Dominique Crenn, the only female chef in America with three Michelin stars, joins Big Think Live this Thursday at 1pm ET.

Big Think LIVE

Add event to your calendar

AppleGoogleOffice 365OutlookOutlook.comYahoo


Keep reading Show less

The world's watersheds, mapped in gorgeous detail

Hungarian cartographer travels the world while mapping its treasures.

Strange Maps
  • Simple idea, stunning result: the world's watersheds in glorious colors.
  • The maps are the work of Hungarian cartographer Robert Szucs.
  • His job: to travel and map the world, one good cause at a time.
Keep reading Show less

Did our early ancestors boil their food in hot springs?

Scientists have found evidence of hot springs near sites where ancient hominids settled, long before the control of fire.

Ryan Pierse/Getty Images
Culture & Religion
Some of the oldest remains of early human ancestors have been unearthed in Olduvai Gorge, a rift valley setting in northern Tanzania where anthropologists have discovered fossils of hominids that existed 1.8 million years ago.
Keep reading Show less

Personal finance: How to save, spend, and think rationally about money

Finances can be a stressor, regardless of tax bracket. Here are tips for making better money decisions.

Videos
  • Whether you have a lot of money or a lot of debt, it matters how you handle your personal finances. A crucial step when it comes to saving is to reassess your relationship with money and to learn to adopt a broader, more logical point of view.
  • In this video, social innovator and activist Vicki Robin, psychologist Daniel Kahneman, Harvard Business School professor Michael Norton, and author Bruce Feiler offer advice on achieving financial independence, learning to control your emotions, spending smarter, and teaching children about money.
  • It all starts with education and understanding. The more you know about how money works, the better you will be at avoiding mistakes and the easier it will be to take control of your financial circumstances.
Keep reading Show less
Scroll down to load more…
Quantcast