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Scientists calculate incubation period of coronavirus
About 97.5 percent of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days, according to the new study.
- The incubation period of a virus is the amount of time it takes for a person to show symptoms after infection.
- A new study examined 181 cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China, finding that the mean incubation period is 5.1 days.
- The results suggest that a quarantine period of 14 days is reasonable.
It takes an average of 5.1 days for a person infected with the new coronavirus to show symptoms, according to recent research from Johns Hopkins University. Fortunately, an average incubation period of 5.1 days means that a 14-day quarantine period, which is used by the U.S. and other nations, is an appropriate amount of time to monitor people for the development of COVID-19.
"Based on our analysis of publicly available data, the current recommendation of 14 days for active monitoring or quarantine is reasonable," epidemiologist Justin Lessler from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health told Johns Hopkins University's HUB.That's the good news. But the findings, published March 10 in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, also highlight one of the most pernicious aspects of the novel coronavirus: It can take days for people to realize they're infected and contagious.
Carl Court / Staff
The study estimated that the median incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is 5.1 days, and that 97.5 percent of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days. However, approximately 2.5 percent of people with the virus seem to develop symptoms after 11.5 days. That means a 14-day quarantine might not be 100 percent effective. In other words, for every 10,000 people quarantined, about 101 would develop symptoms after being released, according to the researchers.
"Whether this rate is acceptable depends on the expected risk for infection in the population being monitored and considered judgment about the cost of missing cases," the researchers wrote. "Combining these judgments with the estimates presented here can help public health officials to set rational and evidence-based COVID-19 control policies."
Chung Sung-Jun / Staff
The study was based on 181 cases of COVID-19 reported in China before February 24. To create a model of incubation period distribution, the researchers looked at metrics like probable time of exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and detection by authorities. The results showed that the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 roughly matches that of past infectious diseases like SARS and MERS, but is a bit longer than the incubation period of the flu, which is one to four days.
Public health officials use estimates like these to determine the length of quarantines, which help to contain and track the spread of a virus. One of the most important functions of a quarantine — or really any social distancing measure — is that it helps to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sick and infected patients.
If you only learn one thing about #COVID19 today make it this: everyone's job is to help FLATTEN THE CURVE. With th… https://t.co/7kEDRf1ffp— Dr Siouxsie Wiles (@Dr Siouxsie Wiles)1583692285.0
"From a US standpoint, you want to prevent any place from becoming the next Wuhan," Tom Frieden, who led the CDC under President Barack Obama, told Vox. "What that means is even if we're not able to prevent widespread transmission, we want to prevent explosive transmission and anything that overwhelms the health care system."
Slowing the spread of a virus is also referred to as flattening the curve. As Dr. Siouxsie Wiles posted on Twitter, flattening the curve is a responsibility that falls not only on government, but also on individuals. So, be sure to brush up on the best ways to prevent the contraction of the new coronavirus, and learn how it spreads from person to person.
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Construction of the $500 billion dollar tech city-state of the future is moving ahead.
- The futuristic megacity Neom is being built in Saudi Arabia.
- The city will be fully automated, leading in health, education and quality of life.
- It will feature an artificial moon, cloud seeding, robotic gladiators and flying taxis.
The Red Sea area where Neom will be built:
Saudi Arabia Plans Futuristic City, "Neom" (Full Promotional Video)<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c646d528d230c1bf66c75422bc4ccf6f"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N53DzL3_BHA?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
Frequent shopping for single items adds to our carbon footprint.
- A new study shows e-commerce sites like Amazon leave larger greenhouse gas footprints than retail stores.
- Ordering online from retail stores has an even smaller footprint than going to the store yourself.
- Greening efforts by major e-commerce sites won't curb wasteful consumer habits. Consolidating online orders can make a difference.
A pile of recycled cardboard sits on the ground at Recology's Recycle Central on January 4, 2018 in San Francisco, California.
Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images<p>A large part of the reason is speed. In a competitive market, pure players use the equation, <em>speed + convenience</em>, to drive adoption. This is especially relevant to the "last mile" GHG footprint: the distance between the distribution center and the consumer.</p><p>Interestingly, the smallest GHG footprint occurs when you order directly from a physical store—even smaller than going there yourself. Pure players, such as Amazon, are the greatest offenders. Variables like geographic location matter; the team looked at shopping in the UK, the US, China, and the Netherlands. </p><p>Sadegh Shahmohammadi, a PhD student at the Netherlands' Radboud University and corresponding author of the paper, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/tech/greenhouse-gas-emissions-retail/index.html" target="_blank">says</a> the above "pattern holds true in countries where people mostly drive. It really depends on the country and consumer behavior there."</p><p>The researchers write that this year-and-a-half long study pushes back on previous research that claims online shopping to be better in terms of GHG footprints.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"They have, however, compared the GHG emissions per shopping event and did not consider the link between the retail channels and the basket size, which leads to a different conclusion than that of the current study."</p><p>Online retail is where convenience trumps environment: people tend to order one item at a time when shopping on pure player sites, whereas they stock up on multiple items when visiting a store. Consumers will sometimes order a number of separate items over the course of a week rather than making one trip to purchase everything they need. </p><p>While greening efforts by online retailers are important, until a shift in consumer attitude changes, the current carbon footprint will be a hard obstacle to overcome. Amazon is trying to have it both ways—carbon-free and convenience addicted—and the math isn't adding up. If you need to order things, do it online, but try to consolidate your purchases as much as possible.</p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://derekberes.substack.com/" target="_blank">Substack</a>. His next book is</em> "<em>Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy."</em></p>
Chronic irregular sleep in children was associated with psychotic experiences in adolescence, according to a recent study out of the University of Birmingham's School of Psychology.