Is it possible to build a mile-high skyscraper?
A mile-high tower would not just be a new structure, but a new technology.
14 September, 2020
Courtesy of Neomam Studio
- Frank Lloyd Wright originally proposed The Mile-High Illinois in the 1950s.
- Innovations in construction materials and elevators are necessary to reach the one mile height and beyond.
- We may see the first mile-high skyscraper by the middle of the 21st century.
<p>Humanity has been on a quest for millenia to build bigger and taller structures. In our reach skyward we've built ziggurats, pyramids, and coliseums. Our mythologies placed the seat of the gods in lofty towers high on mountaintops. We've had moralizing religious parables like the Tower of Babel, warning those who'd place themselves above a god. And some of the self-proclaimed greatest among us have always sought to immortalize themselves through massive works.</p><p>It's safe to say our world civilization is one fixed on achieving ever higher <em>milestones.</em></p><p>Yet, the dreams and wonders of yesterday's buildings look like children's toys compared to our structures now. In the past century and a half skyscrapers have come to dominate the city's form and they haven't stopped growing taller. </p><p>Now we have to ask ourselves, is it possible to build a skyscraper one mile high? </p><p>Perhaps. Let's find out. </p>
Frank Lloyd Wright’s The Mile-High Illinois
<p>One of the first legitimate plans to build a mile-high tower that wasn't some megalomaniac's fever dream (maybe his was too), was famed architect Frank Lloyd Wright's The Illinois. </p><p>On October 16th, 1956 at the Sherman House Hotel in Chicago, Wright at 89 years old presented his design for what he conceived to be the tallest skyscraper in the world, an incredible spire shooting one mile high. The structure proposed to stand 528 floors and 5,280 feet (1,609 meters) tall. Behind him stood an illustration that measured 25 feet (7.6 meters) tall with the skyscraper's dimensions drawn at a scale of 1/16 inch to the foot. The Illinois' dimensions would have been astronomical at the time, with: </p><ul><li>528 floors </li><li>76 elevators </li><li>Gross floor area (GFA): 18,460,106 ft² (1,715,000 m²)</li><li>100,000 occupants </li><li>15,000 parking spaces </li><li>100 helicopter landing pads </li><li>Architectural height of 5,280 ft (1,609.4 m)</li><li>Tip antenna height of 5,706 ft (1739.2 m)</li></ul><p>"This is The Illinois, gentlemen… In it, will be consolidated all government offices now scattered around Chicago," Wright proclaimed.</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDMxODc3NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MjAwNDU2NH0.eJMPnaR6TpYJGS2J08lHCQDRUQtdzVVCJOI8jmcjPK8/img.jpg?width=980" id="61570" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="34c0f1f6be1aa9541ef9818dc89910f5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Frank Lloyd Wright presents The Mile High Illinois at the Sherman House Hotel in Chicago
Credit: Alamy Photos
<p>Wright in an exemplary display of showmanship unveiled the first proposal for the mile-high tower. He believed that he'd found a method to construct the tower out of two principles he coined "tenuity" and "continuity." With these methods he'd believed he would be able to construct the tower out of reinforced concrete and steel.</p> <p>The general principles between these two ideas is characterized by Wright's designs in which he used a "taproot" foundation to support the central load of the structure. </p> <p><a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/ct-frank-lloyd-wright-mile-high-met-0528-20170528-column.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chicago Tribune's Blaire Kamin</a> described it as follows: </p> <p> "The Mile-High didn't simply aim to be tall. It was the ultimate expression of Wright's "taproot" structural system, which sank a central concrete mast deep into the ground and cantilevered floors from the mast. In contrast to a typical skyscraper, in which same-size floors are piled atop one another like so many pancakes, the taproot system lets floors vary in size, opening a high-rise's interior and letting space flow between floors."</p><p><br></p><p>In Wright's own words he saw his method as a break from conventional form, which instead he'd mimic the appearance of a tree with its deep roots and branches spreading deep into the foundation. </p><p>"I detest seeing the boys fooling around and making their buildings look like boxes," Wright said. "Why not design a building that really is tall? ... Long ago I observed trees after the passing of a cyclone. Those with deep taproots were the ones that survived."</p><p>As evident by our lack of sky cracking buildings, Wright's vision never came to pass. His taproot idea, which had only been put into practice in a single building of his, never became part of the future structural engineer's toolkit. While Wright did put an extraordinary amount of effort working out the details of this vision, there were far too many what-ifs that still hadn't been figured out. Many of which we're still working on today.</p><p>But there has been progress. </p>
Building technology for a 1-mile skyscraper
<p>The undefeated champion of the skies right now is the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, which stands at 2,717 feet (roughly half a mile) and is the tallest building in the world.</p><p>Although take that with a grain of dusty salt—only 1,916 feet of the Burj Dubai is occupiable space, the rest is vanity height, meaning nearly 800 feet is non-occupiable space. That represents 29 percent of the building's height. </p><p>So let's get back to real contenders for a mile high.</p><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/08/20/2343/get-ready-for-more-and-taller-skyscrapers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Researchers at MIT Technology Review</a> used data from the experts at the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat and predicted that there is a 9 percent chance that a building exceeding a mile will be built by 2050. They've also predicted that by 2050, nearly 6 billion people will live in cities. Already we're seeing that urban areas in China and the Middle East are continually building up, not out.<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDEwMDM3NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0OTU5NzI4N30.C_l0mR6PFVdr0ZQQiRXBuonLrJoUXgcgfKaqKhWspSw/img.png?width=980" id="44cfe" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="238570ff6e5ed8c7afb2c6ec42cf7818" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Credit: Jonathan Auerbach and Phyllis Wan, International Journal of Forecasting Vol. 36, Issue 3
<p>There are three major construction and stability aspects that must be dealt with if we're to reach a vertical mile. Those are:</p><ul><li>Dampening wind sway </li><li>Elevator speed and length </li><li>Construction materials </li></ul><p>The tallest skyscrapers all employ a tapered top design. This serves both a utilitarian and structural purpose. It's simply not possible to take pre-existing buildings and just double their height. </p><p>A mile-high tower would not just be a new structure, but a new technology. </p><p>Putting aside Burj Khalifa's vanity height for a moment, we have to admire its structural ingenuity. Designed by architect Adrian Smith and structural engineer William Baker at Skidmore, Owings and Merrill, the structure's foundational approach is a buttressed core – which is a hexagonal concrete core that frays out into three triangle buttresses. This was one inventive solution they made to support such a great height. </p><p>But that only solves one issue. </p><p><strong>Diverting winds at high elevations</strong> </p><p>What might be a slight breeze on the ground floor can turn into a windstorm in greater heights. Aside from the fundamentals of stability, occupants also need comfortability. Most building sway is harmless to the structural integrity of the building. But the last thing anyone wants is to feel like they're in the midst of a tornado 500 floors above ground level. </p><p>Architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) professionals calculate estimated wind sway from a building's height and incorporate that into the design. Buildings are often made to withstand cataclysmic 500 to 1000 year inclement weather disasters. </p><p>To deal with wind, you either confuse it by spinning it around the building in creative structural ways or you use a mass dampener.</p><p>A mass dampener is a counterweight suspended somewhere in the building to counteract and balance the movement from the outside. For example, the Taipei 101 Tower employs a <a href="https://gizmodo.com/how-a-730-ton-ball-kept-the-second-tallest-building-fro-5019046" target="_blank">730 ton orb </a>pendulum that sways back and forth to balance wind from storms and typhoons. </p><p>Aerodynamic vortexes of wind can exert dangerous amounts of pressure and vibrations on a building. Air currents can be unpredictable, so rather than guess what could happen to the building, AEC professionals need to calculate it directly into the design. If it's not a mass dampener, it'll be a mix of structural fins, curves, and asymmetrical floors. </p><p><strong>Elevator speed and stability</strong> </p><p>The logistical obstacles of moving thousands of people in a mile-high skyscraper is one of the biggest challenges. To reach the floor at the top of a mile-high building with current technology would require people to change elevators multiple times. </p><p>The current figure for elevators runs at 1,600 feet as wire suspension ropes cannot support their own weight and any additional weight after that point. Aside from the technical limitations, needing multiple elevator lobbies would take up too much valuable space. </p><p>A few years ago, Finnish elevator company Kone developed a carbon fiber cable, UltraRope that they believe could double the distance of an elevator rope. This would be enough to get those would-be mile-high penthouse residents to their sky digs. </p><p>Beyond the old school cable elevator, others have floated ideas about a looped system that could pull elevators up, down and sideways. This could increase the building's usable area by 25 percent. </p><p><strong>New structural materials</strong> </p><p>Concrete has served us well for thousands of years. It's time to rethink what materials we can use. Engineers are looking at materials like carbon fiber, an extremely lightweight and strong material. </p><p>Carbon fiber is a polymer composed of thin strands of carbon atoms bound together in a unique crystalline formation. It is far lighter than steel, five times stronger and has double the stiffness. Currently carbon fiber is used in a number of manufacturing processes ranging from aircraft wings to bike frames. Carbon fiber and other related composite materials weigh very little but can take on heavy bearing loads.</p>The future of the mile-high skyscraper
<p>With billions of residents in our cities, it's an inevitability that we'll one day reach the one-mile-high mark, if not beyond that as well. But we need to think about what these skyscrapers will be used for and how they'll interact with and reshape the built environment. </p><p>At the turn of the 20th century, the 1916 Zoning Resolution in New York City was a measure adopted to stop massive skyscrapers from blocking light and air from reaching the streets below. It established limits to what could be built and created a series of setbacks to building lots. </p><p>New measures would need to be created as a building of this magnitude entered into the public domain. New building uses also need to be considered. How many more luxury condos and office space do we really need? </p><p>The advent of a mile-high tower could bring about a new age of the homestead and of our created environment. We have the opportunity to build something that could be a fully functioning self-contained ecosystem, more than just a building, but a city within a city. </p><p>A mixed use building like this could shelter thousands and give them a place where they could work, play, live, and exist on the peripheries of humankind's greatest ingenuity. A place like this could also serve as a consolidated seat for governments and working space for companies of the future. Why not continue to build vertically with farms, factories, and more?<br></p><p>When we one day build to a mile and beyond, the sky will no longer be the limit, it will be our domain.</p><p><em></em><em>Mike Colagrossi is the founder of </em><em><a target="_blank" href="https://alchemistcity.com/?utm_source=bigthink&utm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=mile-high-skyscraper">Alchemist City,</a></em><em> the most thought-provoking urban development and technology email newsletter. </em><em><a target="_blank" href="https://alchemistcity.com/?utm_source=bigthink&utm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=mile-high-skyscraper" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sign up</a></em><em> to stay up to date.</em> <em></em></p>
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Editor X is setting a new standard for web design. Here’s everything you need to know.
Creators can now control every aspect of their business.
26 August, 2020
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<script async="true" src="https://widgets.stackcommerce.com/js-deal-feed/0.1/widget.js" type="text/javascript"></script><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nowadays, people are experiencing the advancements of web design on their desktop, mobile and every screen size in between. This is why it’s important for web creators to have a platform that helps them achieve the same visual impact no matter what device it’s being viewed on. Editor X is a sophisticated </span><a href="https://stackmedia.io/?utm_source=1a5b0cv5067&utm_medium=1a0b0cp393&utm_term=scsf-424458&utm_content=100-a0x1P000004XwIF&pub_id=2540"><span style="font-weight: 400;">web creation platform</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> that gives complete design control and the freedom to build websites for any screen size imaginable. Here’s everything you need to know about how Editor X is reshaping responsive web design. </span></p><p><strong>Advanced design capabilities </strong></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Made for designers and agencies who build sites for others, Editor X offers a revolutionary combination of responsive design capabilities with intuitive drag and drop behavior. Building powerful, responsive websites with advanced flexbox technology and approachable CSS allows creators to bring their exact visions online on </span><a href="https://stackmedia.io/?utm_source=1a5b0cv5067&utm_medium=1a0b0cp393&utm_term=scsf-424458&utm_content=100-a0x1P000004XwIF&pub_id=2540"><span style="font-weight: 400;">the most flexible canvas yet</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p><p><strong>All-in-one</strong></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Creating unique web experiences on Editor X doesn’t stop at design. With industry-leading web infrastructure, designers can provide brands and clients with a website that answers all their businesses needs. Websites can be enriched with a variety of integrated business solutions like e-commerce, booking systems, marketing tools and more. This means designers no longer have to struggle with third-party plug-ins, and can instead take their ideas straight to production on </span><a href="https://stackmedia.io/?utm_source=1a5b0cv5067&utm_medium=1a0b0cp393&utm_term=scsf-424458&utm_content=100-a0x1P000004XwIF&pub_id=2540"><span style="font-weight: 400;">one comprehensive platform</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p><p><strong>Custom code</strong></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">To code, or not to code? On Editor X, the decision is yours. With a powerful code-free CMS, you don’t need any coding knowledge to manage the back-end content of a website and display it in a visually outstanding way. However, the platform does enable users to connect to external APIs and write custom code with a built-in IDE so they can create rich, data-driven websites and advanced web applications with unparalleled speed. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Make any vision possible on this revolutionary creation platform. Ready to get your site up and running on Editor X? </span><a href="https://stackmedia.io/?utm_source=1a5b0cv5067&utm_medium=1a0b0cp393&utm_term=scsf-424458&utm_content=100-a0x1P000004XwIF&pub_id=2540"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Go create</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">!</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">--</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><em><em>W</em><em>hen you buy something through a link in this article or from <a href="https://shop.bigthink.com/" rel="dofollow" target="_self">our shop</a>, Big Think earns a small commission. Thank you for supporting our team's work.</em></em></span></p><script type="text/javascript"> (function (s,o,n,a,r,i,z,e){s['StackSonarObject']=r;s[r]=s[r]||function(){
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Learn to create any logo, icon, or graphic with this Illustrator guidebook
From logo design to marketing mastery, this Adobe bundle is a bargain.
11 August, 2020
- Digital designers are in high demand as companies must compete to stand out.
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<script async="true" src="https://widgets.stackcommerce.com/js-deal-feed/0.1/widget.js" type="text/javascript"></script><p>Having a vision is the first step toward bringing it to life. Learning the skills and software necessary for translating that vision to the screen requires practice and determination more than inherent art skills. And once you get the hang of the software, your journey to a career in design begins.</p><p>Adobe Illustrator has been the world's leading design program for decades (since 1985, to be exact). It's basically like the Swiss Army Knife of design apps. With <a href="https://shop.bigthink.com/sales/the-ultimate-adobe-illustrator-s-guidebook-certification-bundle?utm_source=bigthink.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=the-ultimate-adobe-illustrator-s-guidebook-certification-bundle&utm_term=scsf-392668&utm_content=a0x1P000004sLkaQAE&scsonar=1" target="_blank"><strong>The Ultimate Adobe Illustrator's Guidebook Certification Bundle</strong></a>, you'll learn how to master this classic software. Nine courses include 418 lessons that offer you a variety of in-demand skills, including (but not limited to):</p><ul class="ee-ul">
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Radical innovation: Unlocking the future of human invention
Ready to see the future? Nanotronics CEO Matthew Putman talks innovation and the solutions that are within reach.
11 August, 2020
Innovation in manufacturing has crawled since the 1950s. That's about to speed up. Using a combination of imagination and technology, science tech company Nanotronics aims to revolutionize the factory floor so that industries can have a smaller factory footprint, produce less waste, and rapidly increase the speed from R&D to production—it's this very philosophy that allowed Nanotronics to pivot and manufacture ventilators as a rapid response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
<h2>Lessons learned live</h2><p><strong>In this webinar, you'll learn:</strong></p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>Why non-invasive breathing devices are in demand and how they can improve patient outcomes</li><li>About the innovative features of Nanotronics' bi-level breathing device</li><li>How excessive outsourcing can stymie internal innovation and expertise</li><li>Why we need to rethink the association between low-cost products and low-cost labor</li><li>About the potentially positive impacts of Artificial Intelligence</li><li> How to think about A.I. as an opportunity, rather than a threat</li><li>How U.V. lighting can be used not only to disinfect surfaces, but to disinfect the atmosphere via air filtration systems</li><li>How customer needs drive the innovation cycle at Nanotronics</li><li>Why Mr. Putman pursues all innovation with a sense of urgency</li><li>How to think about which ideas to optimize when experimenting</li><li>Why you should not be intimidated by high-tech requirements for innovation</li><li>About the unique challenges and benefits of collaborating in a virtual environment</li><li>How to think about improving remote collaboration with both humans and robots</li><li>How to think about innovation in terms of macro-level vs. micro-level failure</li></ul><p><strong>From the audience Q&A:</strong></p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>Why Nanotronics could be a great partner for innovators who are making physical products and starting from scratch</li><li>Why greater precision in innovation means less waste; decision rules for reducing waste; essential questions for reexamining traditional approaches to reducing waste, like recycling</li><li>Why Mr. Putman thinks of Universal Basic Income as a potential step in the right direction toward a more abundant future, but not as an end step in itself</li><li>How space exploration serves an important inspirational purpose</li><li>Why planet-based innovation serves humankind's more immediate needs</li><li>Why you don't have to be Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk to have an enormous impact as an innovator, and how to think about your work in terms of obligations and responsibilities</li><li>How the patent system helps Nanotronics organize their ideas and why innovators should not let the system slow them down from starting to build</li></ul><p>
In this Big Think Live session, presented by
<a href="http://www.bmo.com" target="_blank">BMO Financial Group</a>, <strong>Matthew Putman, scientist, musician, and CEO of Nanotronics</strong>, and Peter Hopkins, co-founder and president of Big Think, will open a window to the future. Learn how manufacturing disruption will accelerate innovation in a multitude of industries, why impact over profit should be a guiding star for leaders, and watch Putnam settle this question once and for all: Is AI a homicidal, job-devouring nemesis?
</p><p><strong>WATCH THE STREAM VIA:</strong><br></p><p>
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<strong>Thanks to our partner BMO Financial Group.</strong>
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How COVID-19 will change the way we design our homes
Pandemic-inspired housing innovation will collide with techno-acceleration.
09 August, 2020
Maja Hitij/Getty Images
COVID-19 is confounding planning for basic human needs, including shelter.
<p> Around the world, home builders are vigilantly reading tea leaves in the fog, trying to figure out how to survive (and even thrive in) an unfolding economic disaster. And we mourn the fallen, working to keep our loved ones healthy and safe.</p><p>COVID-19 has drawn a political dividing line in much of the world. It reminds me of something an American revolutionary, Samuel Johnson, said in 1775: "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel." In my story, the scoundrel is this virus – COVID-19.</p><p>Home builders construct the physical environments for families, who turn them into homes – homes we hope are filled with laughter, love, aspiration and celebration. Good housing is the cornerstone of strong communities.</p><p>Much of how COVID-19 impacts us will be determined by science, but not all. "The question of how the pandemic plays out is at least 50% social and political," Sarah Cobey, epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago, told <em>Scientific American.</em></p><p>Just as the Spanish flu gave us the vanity room, which originated as a hand-washing basin immediately inside the front entry of a home, COVID-19 will influence innovation in home design.</p>
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Open-plan, ever-larger houses have ruled the market for decades, even though family size has shrunk and middle-class real earnings have remained flat. U.S. households averaged 2.44 children in 1965 but 1.9 by 2015. With 128.6 million households, that's 7 million fewer children. Yet the average size of U.S. houses grew 62% from 1973-2015, from 1,660 square feet to 2,687. House size was still growing in 2018. In Canada, houses have also grown as families shrunk. In Europe, average house size has grown to 1,880 square feet (which Europeans will say astounds them).
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Pandemic thinking will likely favour less-open spaces (though people will crave nature-positive spaces), perhaps reviving cozy dens to supplement living rooms. Spending may shift into less obvious enhancements of safety and comfort. Better interior insulation will enable quieter places. Screened-in porches and outdoor spaces, and new approaches to landscaping will help keep mosquitoes and other disease-bearing critters at bay. A bedroom, kitchen, living room area and bath that is a little removed from the core of the house will accommodate adult children now and elderly parents later (at Lennar, we call this the Next Gen Home). Split HVAC systems can prevent sickroom air from being pumped into everybody's space. Such mini-HVAC systems with no ductwork have become very affordable.
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Home-based jobs call for better home offices (Lennar calls this the Next Gen Home Office). The infamous toilet flush in the background of U.S. Supreme Court by-telephone oral arguments underscored the perils of inappropriate home-work spaces. So do videos of children and pets interrupting conference calls or other tasks. A larger home-based work force will drive designers to balance job requirements with the privacy and safety of the family.
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<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzU0NjM2Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyOTI4MDQ2MH0.aQZirj2jDCmwTn94E7cHku5Np1Sj3XYTd5U-cjHFJA4/img.png?width=980" id="7841f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ad162e4cbaa85f0a8bb886bcdc9ea738" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Pandemic-inspired housing innovation will collide, however, with three critical forces that were already simmering pre-COVID and are now at a high boil.</p><ul><li><strong>Techno-Accelerations.</strong> The pandemic has accelerated the already-brisk integration of real and virtual activities, including remote work, remote health, and remote education. But electric and automated vehicle compatibility, delivery-enablement systems, frictionless purchasing and the Internet of Things (IoT) enabling the remote maintenance and repair of homes . . . all require fast bandwidth – faster even than 5G. It also requires security: in a geopolitical environment where surface attack areas have expanded, we all want military-grade cybersecurity.</li></ul><ul><li><strong>Climate.</strong> As China began publicly grappling with deaths from COVID-19 in mid-January 2020, the World Economic Forum's "2020 Global Risks Report" was released. It warned that climate change makes more of the planet hospitable to infectious pathogens. Resilience is therefore the watchword of the remainder of the century. Energy and flood resilience, and smart insurance and other financing products that will encourage a great migration away from the coasts . . . these are the characteristics of the new urban morphology brought about by climate change.</li></ul><ul><li><strong>Social Justice.</strong> While COVID-19 did not cause the social justice movement that swept many parts of the world this summer and the U.S. in particular, the virus amplifies economic burdens which, in turn, exacerbate the movement's root causes: income inequality is central to this dynamic. The Institute for Policy Studies found America's 400 richest people are worth $US3 trillion, more than all African-American households plus 25% of Hispanic households combined. There's little doubt these numbers err on the low side now. COVID-19 has wiped out the ready resources of many families and that will spark varying degrees of political reaction globally. Populist housing policies that threaten capital investment could deter home building and contribute to future housing crises. Inclusionary housing programmes that accelerate wealth creation among traditionally excluded populations, enable financing, inject innovation into housing use and urgently work toward housing security for vulnerable populations will underpin how governments reallocate precious housing-related subsidies.</li></ul><p>The ghosts of the 2008 financial crisis hang over the pandemic economy. But the 2008 crisis was housing-ignited. High-risk mortgages drove up the prices of houses buyers couldn't afford but bought anyway. This textbook housing bubble was buoyed by an irrational conviction that prices would keep rising and rising. Low interest and inflated housing values led millions to refinance or, in the U.S., extract home equity loans to pay for remodelling, cars, boats, campers, and bucket-list quests. The housing bubble popped and its bad ink seeped through world economic systems.</p><p>A 6 January 2020 <em>Washington Post</em> article opened with: "A strong job market and low mortgage rates should sustain the housing market in 2020. The problem will be finding enough homes for buyers. With unemployment hovering at a 50-year low and interest rates well below historical norms, the real estate industry is being dragged down by scarcity in housing stock…."</p><p>Within three months, U.S. unemployment had surged to historic levels (more than 23 million Americans were officially unemployed at the start of May, more than 30 million by the end) but that <em>Washington Post</em> article still holds true today. Low mortgage costs in the U.S. and the developed world continue to drive affordability. And the deficit in housing production inherited from the 2008 crisis still constrains supply while, at the same time, millennials all over the world are starting their families.</p>
<p>Sales of existing houses — normally about 90% of the U.S. market — have been eviscerated this year. New homes are favoured over resale, and de-urbanisation is occurring where it can. If new-home sales of the late spring and, as reported in the media, the early summer, continue, 2020 could be a fair year for new home builders. There's been a big jump in online sales of new homes, a global spike in online home-searching activity, and purchasing occurring often without buyers even walking through a house. A new, fully warranted home, bought without having to spend time with realtors and owners, has great appeal.</p><p>In the last century, vaccines and the public health movement largely eliminated dreaded contagious disease in much of the world. Industrialised countries have periodic outbreaks that remind us of this danger, among which, the HIV/AIDS, SARS, Zika, and West Nile viruses. Public health professionals tell us we could be entering an era in which mass urbanisation, climate change, stressed natural eco-systems and other factors will yield a pandemic (or something approximating one) every 7-10 years. This will force a reckoning with what it means to work together toward a better future. But we will also realise that we will all seek refuge in a home. Maybe knowing that will be our true last refuge.</p><p>Reprinted with permission of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>. Read the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/08/how-covid-19-will-change-what-we-call-home-ddfe95b686/" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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