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Elizabeth Warren passes Joe Biden in 2020 polls
Is former Vice President Joe Biden's "return to normalcy" approach too moderate for Democratic voters?
- For the first time, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has overtaken former Vice President Joe Biden as the frontrunner of the Democratic presidential candidates.
- The lead is modest and there's always a margin of error in polling data.
- Warren and Biden represent two competing strategies among Democrats: revolution and restoration, respectively.
United States Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has overtaken former Vice President Joe Biden as the frontrunner of the Democratic presidential candidates, according to several polls.
The first signs that Warren was inching ahead of Biden came from Iowa. On Sept. 21, a Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicated Warren beat Biden by 2 percentage points, with 22 percent of likely Democratic voters saying she was their first choice, followed by Biden (20 percent) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (11 percent).
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll, told the Des Moines Register it was "the first major shakeup" in what had been a fairly steady race. "It's the first time we've had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leaderboard," she said.
A national poll from Quinnipiac University also revealed that Warren had a two-point lead over Biden, while a separate poll from Economist/YouGov showed Warren with a one-point lead over the former vice president.
"It now appears likely to boil down to a two-way contest, one in which Democrats will have to decide whether to go big or go home," analyst Charlie Cook, founder of the bipartisan Cook Political Report, wrote this week. "In this case, going big is doing something bold, daring, and exciting but potentially risky — that is, going with Warren. Going home is to a more comfortable, familiar, but not terribly exciting place: Biden. Revolution versus restoration."
Biden had long been considered the favorite to win the Democratic primaries. The former vice president was, for many Democrats, the safe bet, the electable candidate whose resume and political chops would likely be enough to unseat President Donald Trump — or, better yet, "beat him like a drum," as Biden said earlier this month.
In some ways, Biden's appeal is about what he won't do: Lose to Trump in 2020 by alienating moderate voters. But this asset — Biden's centrism and "return to normalcy" promise — might also be turning off more idealistic Democratic voters who want not only to beat Trump, but also to overhaul the system. What's also not helping Biden, a reputed gaffe machine," is his tendency to stumble during the Democratic debates, which has prompted critics on both sides of the aisle to question whether his age, 76, is a liability.
Boston Globe / Getty
Meanwhile, Warren is offering the kind of "big, structural change" that many Democrats want, and she's offering relatively detailed plans for how to bring about these changes, which include: increasing taxes for the richest individuals and corporations, cancelling student debt, making college free and childcare affordable, eliminating private prisons, reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act, raising the minimum wage to $15, abolishing the electoral college, among other proposals.
Compared to Biden, Warren's supporters seem generally younger and more enthusiastic. You can see this difference at Warren's rallies — at least one of which The New York Times likened to a rapturous church service — where hundreds of supporters often wait hours in line to take a selfie with the presidential candidate.
Warren also benefits from not having suffered as many recent attacks from Trump and his followers. In contrast, Biden and his son, Hunter, have become ensnared in a scandal in which Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "do us a favor" and investigate potential corruption on the part of the Bidens. As Trump faces an impeachment inquiry over this request, he's repeatedly bashed Biden, tweeting multiple videos essentially accusing the former vice president of corruption, but offering no hard evidence. It's possible that Trump wants to knock Biden out of the race because he considers the former vice president to be a stronger opponent than Warren.
On Oct. 15, The New York Times and CNN are scheduled to host the next Democratic presidential debate, which will include:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii
- Sen. Kamala Harris of California
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
- Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas
- Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
- Tom Steyer, billionaire and activist
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
- Andrew Yang, entrepreneur
Ever since we've had the technology, we've looked to the stars in search of alien life. It's assumed that we're looking because we want to find other life in the universe, but what if we're looking to make sure there isn't any?
Here's an equation, and a rather distressing one at that: N = R* × fP × ne × f1 × fi × fc × L. It's the Drake equation, and it describes the number of alien civilizations in our galaxy with whom we might be able to communicate. Its terms correspond to values such as the fraction of stars with planets, the fraction of planets on which life could emerge, the fraction of planets that can support intelligent life, and so on. Using conservative estimates, the minimum result of this equation is 20. There ought to be 20 intelligent alien civilizations in the Milky Way that we can contact and who can contact us. But there aren't any.
Building a personal connection with students can counteract some negative side effects of remote learning.
- Not being able to engage with students in-person due to the pandemic has presented several new challenges for educators, both technical and social. Digital tools have changed the way we all think about learning, but George Couros argues that more needs to be done to make up for what has been lost during "emergency remote teaching."
- One interesting way he has seen to bridge that gap and strengthen teacher-student and student-student relationships is through an event called Identity Day. Giving students the opportunity to share something they are passionate about makes them feel more connected and gets them involved in their education.
- "My hope is that we take these skills and these abilities we're developing through this process and we actually become so much better for our kids when we get back to our face-to-face setting," Couros says. He adds that while no one can predict the future, we can all do our part to adapt to it.
Frequent shopping for single items adds to our carbon footprint.
- A new study shows e-commerce sites like Amazon leave larger greenhouse gas footprints than retail stores.
- Ordering online from retail stores has an even smaller footprint than going to the store yourself.
- Greening efforts by major e-commerce sites won't curb wasteful consumer habits. Consolidating online orders can make a difference.
A pile of recycled cardboard sits on the ground at Recology's Recycle Central on January 4, 2018 in San Francisco, California.
Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images<p>A large part of the reason is speed. In a competitive market, pure players use the equation, <em>speed + convenience</em>, to drive adoption. This is especially relevant to the "last mile" GHG footprint: the distance between the distribution center and the consumer.</p><p>Interestingly, the smallest GHG footprint occurs when you order directly from a physical store—even smaller than going there yourself. Pure players, such as Amazon, are the greatest offenders. Variables like geographic location matter; the team looked at shopping in the UK, the US, China, and the Netherlands. </p><p>Sadegh Shahmohammadi, a PhD student at the Netherlands' Radboud University and corresponding author of the paper, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/tech/greenhouse-gas-emissions-retail/index.html" target="_blank">says</a> the above "pattern holds true in countries where people mostly drive. It really depends on the country and consumer behavior there."</p><p>The researchers write that this year-and-a-half long study pushes back on previous research that claims online shopping to be better in terms of GHG footprints.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"They have, however, compared the GHG emissions per shopping event and did not consider the link between the retail channels and the basket size, which leads to a different conclusion than that of the current study."</p><p>Online retail is where convenience trumps environment: people tend to order one item at a time when shopping on pure player sites, whereas they stock up on multiple items when visiting a store. Consumers will sometimes order a number of separate items over the course of a week rather than making one trip to purchase everything they need. </p><p>While greening efforts by online retailers are important, until a shift in consumer attitude changes, the current carbon footprint will be a hard obstacle to overcome. Amazon is trying to have it both ways—carbon-free and convenience addicted—and the math isn't adding up. If you need to order things, do it online, but try to consolidate your purchases as much as possible.</p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://derekberes.substack.com/" target="_blank">Substack</a>. His next book is</em> "<em>Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy."</em></p>
Chronic irregular sleep in children was associated with psychotic experiences in adolescence, according to a recent study out of the University of Birmingham's School of Psychology.