Skip to content

Surprising Science — June 15, 2011

The (Difficult?) Science of Seismic Prediction

Members of an Italian commission that assesses major risks like earthquakes have been accused of manslaughter for allegedly not adequately informing residents of risk in 2009.

Sign up for the Smarter Faster newsletter

A weekly newsletter featuring the biggest ideas from the smartest people

What’s the Latest Development?

Seven members of an Italian commission that assesses major risks like earthquakes have been indicted on manslaughter charges for allegedly not adequately informing residents of the potential danger posed by the seismic activity that shook the Abruzzo region for months before a fatal earthquake killed 309 people in April 2009. Prosecutors say that by playing down the risk of a big earthquake, the panel did not allow the local population to make adequately informed decisions about whether to stay at home or not.

What’s the Big Idea?

The defendants—seismologists, scientists and members of the federal Civil Protection Agency—deny the accusation, and the blogosphere and parts of the scientific community have been decrying the case as a witch hunt and accusing the prosecutors of putting science on trial. “An earthquake is an unpredictable event, and the communication of that was correct. It was not reassuring, it was scientifically neutral,” said one defense lawyer of the message passed to the public in a news conference before the quake.

Sign up for the Smarter Faster newsletter

A weekly newsletter featuring the biggest ideas from the smartest people

Related

The l’Aquila Verdict. A Judgment Not Against Science, but Against A Failure of Scientists to Communicate

A court in Italy has convicted six scientists and one civil defense official of manslaughter in connection with their predictions about an earthquake in l’Aquila in 2009 that killed […]

Do Bad Earthquake Predictions Kill People? No. But Bad Risk Communication Might

The ground shook violently in L’Aquila, Italy, early in the morning of April 6, 2009, more violently than it had during the tremors the area had been experiencing for months. […]

Pixelated red human figure on a black grid background with blue symmetrical curves and white geometric shapes adjacent.

The Arecibo Message fifty years later

In November 1974, astronomers used the radio telescope at Puerto Rico’s Arecibo Observatory to send a hello to the universe.

Bronze statue of a bearded man embodying stoicism, riding a horse with one arm extended forward, set against a black background.

3 clues that Stoicism is a religion in disguise

All religions have three traits: metaphysical commitments, ethical guidance, and daily rituals or practices. So does Stoicism.

An open book with abstract designs: the left page displays a horizontal row of color blocks, while the right page features a hand touching a network of connected circles, highlighting strong connections.

Why our “weak-tie” connections are actually super-strong

Sure, “who you know” matters — but your best contacts will be the ones you don’t know very well.

Up Next

Creating Sustainable Cities

Why the urban model of widely separated high-rise towers in single-use residential districts—the “tower-in-a-park” model invented in the 1920s in Europe—is inefficient.