Surprising Science — October 25, 2010

Statistics v. Stories

“There is a tension between stories and statistics, and one under-appreciated contrast between them is simply the mindset with which we approach them.”

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“In listening to stories we tend to suspend disbelief in order to be entertained, whereas in evaluating statistics we generally have an opposite inclination to suspend belief in order not to be beguiled. A drily named distinction from formal statistics is relevant: we’re said to commit a Type I error when we observe something that is not really there and a Type II error when we fail to observe something that is there. There is no way to always avoid both types, and we have different error thresholds in different endeavors, but the type of error people feel more comfortable [with] may be telling.”

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