Water wars will be more widespread than wars over oil, which will involve the big geopolitical players.

Which is more likely: water wars or oil wars?Michael Klare: I think the more likely conflicts will be over water, there will be more frequent, more numerous, more widespread, but the risk of conflict involving the big powers is greater over oil and natural gas and uranium, because the survival of the great powers is at stake. So, I think the risk of conflict is lesser in the case of US, China and Russia. They are going to be much more conscious, so I don’t think the likelihood is very high and percentage terms. I think the risk of conflict over water is 100%, because it is going to become very scarce in many areas of the world and people will become desperate, but I don’t think the US, China and Russia are going to go to war for water, I think that just practically 0% likelihood. However, when we talk about oil, gas, uranium those are essential to the survival of the great powers and there is this not 0% risk that they will stumble into a conflict.

Recorded: 3/14/08