from the world's big
The Next Financial Unraveling
Simon Johnson is a Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan School of Management. He is a co-founder of the economic blog BaselineScenario.com, and the former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of "13 Bankers," a recent book that assesses the U.S. financial sector's role in the economic crisis.
Question: How will the next financial crisis occur?
Simon Johnson: Secretary [Tim] Geithner says this crisis, this kind, only occur every 40 years. Hank Paulson, former Secretary of Treasury says they're every four to six years. Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan Chase, says every five to seven years. So, this is a key issue. Our view is that the structure of the financial system has changed over the past 30 years so that these kind of crises now become more likely and we think that the most obvious source of danger now is in emerging markets.
People are convinced that China, for example, can only go up. Any investment there will make easy money they tell you. There is a lot of savings coming from middle-income countries that come into US and European banks and then come out again to those emerging markets, much like they did in the 1970’s. A sort of a movement of capital around the world through our banks. It’s all based on debt and it will be based, if people buy into this idea of the new boom in emerging markets, it will be based on unsustainable build up of debt in those places, probably around the private sector in their companies. And this will lead us into deep trouble, not just in those countries, but also for our banks that are pushing the debt and selling the debt. So, here we go again.
Question: How soon will this happen?
Simon Johnson: That’s hard to say. The timing of the cycle we’ve seen recently which suggests it’s a three to four to five year cycle we’re in. But honestly, if it’s 10 years or 12 years and at the end of it there's a cataclysmic collapse of the kind we just saw in 2008/2009, then that is something we should also be acting to prevent. You cannot do this every 10 years without really horrible consequences for a lot of people in society.
Because of structural changes, crises could now become more frequent, and the most obvious source of danger now is in emerging markets.
Educators and administrators must build new supports for faculty and student success in a world where the classroom might become virtual in the blink of an eye.
- If you or someone you know is attending school remotely, you are more than likely learning through emergency remote instruction, which is not the same as online learning, write Rich DeMillo and Steve Harmon.
- Education institutions must properly define and understand the difference between a course that is designed from inception to be taught in an online format and a course that has been rapidly converted to be offered to remote students.
- In a future involving more online instruction than any of us ever imagined, it will be crucial to meticulously design factors like learner navigation, interactive recordings, feedback loops, exams and office hours in order to maximize learning potential within the virtual environment.
Placing science and religion at opposite ends of the belief spectrum is to ignore their unique purposes.
- Science and religion (fact versus faith) are often seen as two incongruous groups. When you consider the purpose of each and the questions that they seek to answer, the comparison becomes less black and white.
- This video features religious scholars, a primatologist, a neuroendocrinologist, a comedian, and other brilliant minds considering, among other things, the evolutionary function that religion serves, the power of symbols, and the human need to learn, explore, and know the world around us so that it becomes a less scary place.
- "I think most people are actually kind of comfortable with the idea that science is a reliable way to learn about nature, but it's not the whole story and there's a place also for religion, for faith, for theology, for philosophy," says Francis Collins, American geneticist and director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). "But that harmony perspective doesn't get as much attention. Nobody is as interested in harmony as they are in conflict."
Studying voice recordings of infected but asymptomatic people reveals potential indicators of Covid-19.
A leading British space scientist thinks there is life under the ice sheets of Europa.
- A British scientist named Professor Monica Grady recently came out in support of extraterrestrial life on Europa.
- Europa, the sixth largest moon in the solar system, may have favorable conditions for life under its miles of ice.
- The moon is one of Jupiter's 79.
Neil deGrasse Tyson wants to go ice fishing on Europa<div class="rm-shortcode" data-media_id="GLGsRX7e" data-player_id="FvQKszTI" data-rm-shortcode-id="f4790eb8f0515e036b24c4195299df28"> <div id="botr_GLGsRX7e_FvQKszTI_div" class="jwplayer-media" data-jwplayer-video-src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/GLGsRX7e-FvQKszTI.js"> <img src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/thumbs/GLGsRX7e-1920.jpg" class="jwplayer-media-preview" /> </div> <script src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/GLGsRX7e-FvQKszTI.js"></script> </div>
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A study finds people are more influenced by what the other party says than their own. What gives?
- A new study has found evidence suggesting that conservative climate skepticism is driven by reactions to liberal support for science.
- This was determined both by comparing polling data to records of cues given by leaders, and through a survey.
- The findings could lead to new methods of influencing public opinion.