Here's the psychology that explains why many economists prefer to be narrowly right yet broadly wrong (they suffer from professional "rigor distortis").
It takes four dollars of debt to create a single dollar of GDP growth in China. For context, at the peak of the GFC in 2008 it was taking three dollars of debt to create a dollar of GDP growth in the U.S. China has received the kiss of debt, says Ruchir Sharma.
In 2009, after the global financial crisis, China beat its 8% economic growth target while the West was economically gridlocked, caught up in debate in Washington D.C. The World Economic Forum that year marveled at the benefits that autocracies like China had over democracies in making executive decisions to protect and manage an economy. But it doesn’t look quite so marvelous from where we’re standing now, says Ruchir Sharma, the head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. China's post-recession strategy is the very moment the so-called miracle of its economy began to end. There is no developing country in history that has taken on so much debt in such a short span of time, which leads Sharma to think there is a rough road ahead for China, and that those hard times may form a global ripple. Ruchir Sharma's book is The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World.
This is not the outcome you're looking for.