Pakistan: An Unforeseen Problem for the U.S.

Question: What big trends have you missed during your 18-year \r\ntenure at Foreign Affairs?
\r\nJim Hoge:
I had a number of people in Washington and the State \r\nDepartment and elsewhere telling me very early on, all the way back 18 \r\nyears ago, "Put the focus on Pakistan.  Pakistan is going to be the most\r\n dangerous state for all of us."  And that was the head of policy \r\nplanning at the time, a man named Sam Lewis who said that to me and I \r\nsaid, “Well is that the number one item for policy planning, long term \r\nplanning for the century?”  He said, “You bet it is.”  Well it still is \r\nand it’s more urgent now than it was then.  We did pay attention to \r\nthem.  We’ve done a number of pieces on not just Pakistan, but the \r\ndynamics of that region and how easily they come unraveled, but this was\r\n long before 9/11 and long before Afghanistan was viewed as anything but\r\n a backwater after the Soviet invasion was over, so I still remember \r\nthat neither the State Department nor Foreign Affairs really grasped at \r\nthat time just what a problem Pakistan could end up to be. 
\r\nNow why do I call it a big problem now?  Pakistan is a major state.  \r\nIt’s not like Afghanistan, a backwater state.  It has a big population, a\r\n lot of big military, nuclear weapons and one of the great nation to \r\nnation conflicts that still goes on.  If there is going to be another \r\nbig nation to nation war it’s more likely to be between India and \r\nPakistan than almost anybody else.  We have been completely \r\nunsuccessful, not that we haven’t tried, when I say we I mean the United\r\n States, in getting Pakistan and India to finally resolve the problems \r\nover Kashmir and get back into more normal state to state relationship \r\nputting the emphasis on their economic developments.  In that period of \r\ntime, those 18 years or so since that first warning Pakistan has gone \r\nthrough a great discombobulation, civil governments that didn’t work, \r\nmilitary coups that didn’t work, the rise in fundamentalism there.  \r\nMeanwhile, across the border India has gone from being a relatively huge,\r\n poverty-ridden country with very few prospects for economic development\r\n into this raging new first rate power, which is where they’re headed, \r\nwith a very dynamic economy and so you have this contest between a \r\nfading Pakistan if you will and a rising India and that of course is the\r\n grounds for even more tensions and possible miscalculations.
How would such a war affect the U.S.?

\r\nJim Hoge: Well one has to assume that if there really was another\r\n all out Indian/Pakistani war that nuclear weapons would be used and \r\nwhat the specific ramifications would be it’s hard to say, but a nuclear\r\n war, there has only been one use of nuclear weapons ever, is an \r\nincalculable risk with unintended consequences.  We are both an ally of \r\nPakistan and we are an ally of India.  What would we do if the two of \r\nthem ended up in a war?  What would we do if one started using nuclear \r\nweapons?  I don’t know, but it is a cataclysm to be avoided at all \r\ncosts.

Recorded May 28, 2010
Interviewed by Jessica Liebman

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