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Solar power now generates the cheapest electricity in history, IEA says
- The International Energy Agency is an intergovernmental organization that advises member nations on issues related to energy and the environment.
- In its annual report, the IEA reported that the cost of solar is dropping more rapidly than previously thought, providing some parts of the world with historically cheap electricity.
- The IEA predicted that, over the next decade, renewables will meet 80 percent of global electricity demand growth, while the demand for oil will peak.
Electricity from solar energy is the cheapest it's ever been, thanks largely to technological improvements and policies that reduce the risk of investing in renewable energy.
That's one of the key takeaways from the World Energy Outlook 2020 report, which is published annually by the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organization that advises member nations on energy security, economic development and environmental protection.
"I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets," Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director, said in a statement. "Based on today's policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022."
The World Energy Outlook 2020 is out! It shows how the Covid crisis has brought deep disruption & uncertainty to t… https://t.co/if9yt1mHZc— Fatih Birol (@Fatih Birol)1602561688.0
The IEA's 2020 report notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has made it hard to predict the future of global energy demand, but it laid out several scenarios of what may happen over the next few years. In the main scenario, the international community is projected to generate 43 percent more solar power than the IEA had predicted in 2018.
That increase, as Carbon Brief first reported, is partly due to new analyses showing the cost of solar power to be 20 to 50 percent cheaper than the IEA thought in 2018.
Globally, the average cost of electricity from large-scale solar photovoltaic projects has dropped by magnitudes over the past decade, from 38 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to 6.8 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2019, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.
"Solar PV is now consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen," the IEA wrote in a press release. "In the [main scenario], renewables meet 80% of global electricity demand growth over the next decade. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source, but solar is the main source of growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind."
Solar energy and other renewables also pose a major threat to coal. The IEA report notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a "structural fall in global coal demand," and that renewables and "cheap natural gas and coal phase-out policies, means that coal demand in advanced economies drops by almost half to 2030."
What's more, India, the world's second-largest coal producer, is projected to build 86 percent less new coal power capacity than the IEA predicted in 2019.
Here's a remarkable detail buried in @IEA #WEO20 India will build 86% less new coal power capacity than expected l… https://t.co/oBKGtDRzpT— Simon Evans (@Simon Evans)1602756526.0
While it's relatively easy to predict the near-term rise of solar and fall of coal, the future of oil remains more uncertain. The report notes that, without additional policy pushes, it's too soon to predict a rapid decline in oil demand and production. Yet, some industry experts do expect to see oil demand level out, if not rapidly decline, over the next decade.
"The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade," Dr Birol said in a press release. "Based on today's policy settings, a global economic rebound would soon push oil demand back to pre-crisis levels."
One scenario in the report describes a pathway that would see the global community achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is the target of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
THREAD: The @IEA now has an aggressive 1.5°C scenario, reaching net-zero by 2050. It builds on the Sustainable Dev… https://t.co/Fjc86yHX3Q— Glen Peters (@Glen Peters)1602749021.0
To hit that ambitious goal, renewables would have to meet roughly 75 percent of global electricity demand in 2030, compared to 40 percent today, and electric vehicles would have to account for 50 percent of all passenger cars sold worldwide by 2030.
On the individual level, behavioral changes would also play a key role in this scenario. The report notes that up one-third of cuts to CO2 emissions would come from individuals doing things like:
- Working from home more often
- Line-drying laundry
- Driving more slowly
- Reducing use of air conditioning
- Flying less
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What is human dignity? Here's a primer, told through 200 years of great essays, lectures, and novels.
- Human dignity means that each of our lives have an unimpeachable value simply because we are human, and therefore we are deserving of a baseline level of respect.
- That baseline requires more than the absence of violence, discrimination, and authoritarianism. It means giving individuals the freedom to pursue their own happiness and purpose.
- We look at incredible writings from the last 200 years that illustrate the push for human dignity in regards to slavery, equality, communism, free speech and education.
The inherent worth of all human beings<p>Human dignity is the inherent worth of each individual human being. Recognizing human dignity means respecting human beings' special value—value that sets us apart from other animals; value that is intrinsic and cannot be lost.</p> <p>Liberalism—the broad political philosophy that organizes society around liberty, justice, and equality—is rooted in the idea of human dignity. Liberalism assumes each of our lives, plans, and preferences have some unimpeachable value, not because of any objective evaluation or contribution to a greater good, but simply because they belong to a human being. We are human, and therefore deserving of a baseline level of respect. </p> <p>Because so many of us take human dignity for granted—just a fact of our humanness—it's usually only when someone's dignity is ignored or violated that we feel compelled to talk about it. </p> <p>But human dignity means more than the absence of violence, discrimination, and authoritarianism. It means giving individuals the freedom to pursue their own happiness and purpose—a freedom that can be hampered by restrictive social institutions or the tyranny of the majority. The liberal ideal of the good society is not just peaceful but also pluralistic: It is a society in which we respect others' right to think and live differently than we do.</p>
From the 19th century to today<p>With <a href="https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?year_start=1800&year_end=2019&content=human+dignity&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2Chuman%20dignity%3B%2Cc0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Google Books Ngram Viewer</a>, we can chart mentions of human dignity from 1800-2019.</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg0ODU0My9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MTUwMzE4MX0.bu0D_0uQuyNLyJjfRESNhu7twkJ5nxu8pQtfa1w3hZs/img.png?width=980" id="7ef38" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9974c7bef3812fcb36858f325889e3c6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
American novelist, writer, playwright, poet, essayist and civil rights activist James Baldwin at his home in Saint-Paul-de-Vence, southern France, on November 6, 1979.
Credit: Ralph Gatti/AFP via Getty Images
The future of dignity<p>Around the world, people are still working toward the full and equal recognition of human dignity. Every year, new speeches and writings help us understand what dignity is—not only what it looks like when dignity is violated but also what it looks like when dignity is honored. In his posthumous essay, Congressman Lewis wrote, "When historians pick up their pens to write the story of the 21st century, let them say that it was your generation who laid down the heavy burdens of hate at last and that peace finally triumphed over violence, aggression and war."</p> <p>The more we talk about human dignity, the better we understand it. And the sooner we can make progress toward a shared vision of peace, freedom, and mutual respect for all. </p>
With just a few strategical tweaks, the Nazis could have won one of World War II's most decisive battles.
- The Battle of Britain is widely recognized as one of the most significant battles that occurred during World War II. It marked the first major victory of the Allied forces and shifted the tide of the war.
- Historians, however, have long debated the deciding factor in the British victory and German defeat.
- A new mathematical model took into account numerous alternative tactics that the German's could have made and found that just two tweaks stood between them and victory over Britain.
Two strategic blunders<p>Now, historians and mathematicians from York St. John University have collaborated to produce <a href="http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~nm15/bootstrapBoB%20AAMS.docx" target="_blank">a statistical model (docx download)</a> capable of calculating what the likely outcomes of the Battle of Britain would have been had the circumstances been different. </p><p>Would the German war effort have fared better had they not bombed Britain at all? What if Hitler had begun his bombing campaign earlier, even by just a few weeks? What if they had focused their targets on RAF airfields for the entire course of the battle? Using a statistical technique called weighted bootstrapping, the researchers studied these and other alternatives.</p><p>"The weighted bootstrap technique allowed us to model alternative campaigns in which the Luftwaffe prolongs or contracts the different phases of the battle and varies its targets," said co-author Dr. Jaime Wood in a <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2020/research/mathematicians-battle-britain-what-if-scenarios/" target="_blank">statement</a>. Based on the different strategic decisions that the German forces could have made, the researchers' model enabled them to predict the likelihood that the events of a given day of fighting would or would not occur.</p><p>"The Luftwaffe would only have been able to make the necessary bases in France available to launch an air attack on Britain in June at the earliest, so our alternative campaign brings forward the air campaign by three weeks," continued Wood. "We tested the impact of this and the other counterfactuals by varying the probabilities with which we choose individual days."</p><p>Ultimately, two strategic tweaks shifted the odds significantly towards the Germans' favor. Had the German forces started their campaign earlier in the year and had they consistently targeted RAF airfields, an Allied victory would have been extremely unlikely.</p><p>Say the odds of a British victory in the real-world Battle of Britain stood at 50-50 (there's no real way of knowing what the actual odds are, so we'll just have to select an arbitrary figure). If this were the case, changing the start date of the campaign and focusing only on airfields would have reduced British chances at victory to just 10 percent. Even if a British victory stood at 98 percent, these changes would have cut them down to just 34 percent.</p>
A tool for understanding history<p>This technique, said co-author Niall Mackay, "demonstrates just how finely-balanced the outcomes of some of the biggest moments of history were. Even when we use the actual days' events of the battle, make a small change of timing or emphasis to the arrangement of those days and things might have turned out very differently."</p><p>The researchers also claimed that their technique could be applied to other uncertain historical events. "Weighted bootstrapping can provide a natural and intuitive tool for historians to investigate unrealized possibilities, informing historical controversies and debates," said Mackay.</p><p>Using this technique, researchers can evaluate other what-ifs and gain insight into how differently influential events could have turned out if only the slightest things had changed. For now, at least, we can all be thankful that Hitler underestimated Britain's grit.</p>
We’ve mapped a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way. Take the virtual tour here.
See the most detailed survey of the southern sky ever carried out using radio waves.
Astronomers have mapped about a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in the most detailed survey of the southern sky ever carried out using radio waves.
A new study shows our planet is much closer to the supermassive black hole at the galaxy's center than previously estimated.
Credit: NAOJ<p><em>Arrows on this map show position and velocity data for the 224 objects utilized to model the Milky Way Galaxy. The solid black lines point to the positions of the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Colors reflect groups of objects that are part of the same arm, while the background is a simulation image.</em></p>
Apple sold its first iPod in 2001, and six years later it introduced the iPhone, which ushered in a new era of personal technology.