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COVID-19 is accelerating the pace of automation and the need for UBI
The pandemic has given us an early glimpse at how truly disruptive the fourth industrial revolution may be, and the measures we'll need to support human dignity.
12 May, 2020
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
- The coronavirus crisis has acted as a catalyst for two powerful transformative forces: automation and universal basic income.
- These two intertwined forces will undoubtedly gain steam, writes Frederick Kuo, and the pandemic will hasten the acceptance of them from a scale of decades to years or mere months.
- This crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future could look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure.
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<p>The coronavirus pandemic has sent the global economy into a tailspin posing a twisted choice to humankind between economic survival or our very health. Markets are crashing, numbers of infected people and deaths soaring by the day and a massive part of the global economy forced into a standstill as people shelter in place. Looking out the window, the world still looks the same. The sun is still shining, the leaves still rustle in the wind and birds still chirp merrily as if nothing was amiss. However there is no mistaking a collective sense of mourning that the world is feeling as normal daily routines and freedoms we took for granted have come to a sudden halt. Amidst the constant barrage of gloomy news however, this crisis shall inevitably pass. But the world post-COVID-19 will not be the same; the crisis has acted as a catalyst for powerful transformative forces such as <a href="https://thewire.in/tech/inequality-technology-robotic-age" target="_blank">automation</a> and the need for universal basic income, two intertwined forces that will undoubtedly gain steam.</p>
COVID-19 will expedite automation
<p>As the mobility of human beings grinds to a halt due to public health directives and fears of infection, our need for food, resources and social connection has forced us to increasingly rely on technology to fill urgent gaps. In the United States, Amazon is seizing this opportunity to further entrench its <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-is-only-making-jeff-bezos-and-amazon-more-powerful/" target="_blank">domination</a>, while in China, robots are being deployed to serve those in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/how-china-is-using-robots-and-telemedicine-to-combat-the-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">quarantine</a>. In a world where fear of contact with other humans has become pervasive, businesses that can adapt quickly and significantly automate their supply lines and cut points of human contact stand to thrive in this new market. </p><p>Whereas before this crisis, the need for automation was mainly driven by the desire for increased profits and improved efficiency, the momentous shift in public consciousness today regarding simple human contact may make automation almost a necessity for many businesses to survive. When humans trust a robot to handle or deliver their food or goods more than they trust another human, or when crowded workplaces present public health hazards, jobs for humans will be unceremoniously eliminated. Given existing technologies, experts have estimated <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/24/the-robots-are-ready-as-the-covid-19-recession-spreads/" target="_blank">36 million jobs</a> may be vulnerable, ranging from trucking and delivery to food service and repetitive white collar jobs, the labor market may face a significant restructure driven by <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/31/21200010/coronavirus-recession-automation-brookings-mark-muro" target="_blank">new technology</a> and a radically altered market for those technologies. In a recent survey conducted by auditing firm <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/bosses-speed-up-automation-as-virus-keeps-workers-home" target="_blank">Ernst & Young</a>, more than half of company bosses throughout 45 countries had begun implementing existing plans to fast track automation.</p><blockquote>This crisis has compacted the timeline of a gradual acceptance of an automated future from years into months. </blockquote>
<p>The crisis of unemployment has become real for tens of millions locked down around the world. Although this phase is likely to be temporary with normality expected to return by the third quarter, the process of entrenching automation in our daily lives will be radically pushed forward. This crisis has compacted the timeline of a gradual acceptance of an automated future from years into months. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/21/amazons-first-automated-store-opens-to-public-on-monday" target="_blank">Seattle</a>, Amazon has pioneered Amazon Go, a small grocery that relies on cameras and sensors to charge customers for what they buy instead of a checkout line. With Amazon already in control of a major grocery chain, Whole Foods, one could imagine that this little, fully automated store could serve as a template for a nationwide expansion of this technology, thus reducing the once-vital role of the cashier nearly overnight. Similar rollouts of automation models will likely follow in the coming years, affecting warehouse employees, delivery people, food service personnel and more.</p>
Mainstream acceptance of UBI
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="44c33c426c79ad9f2c6148d8f9f63bc4"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UEsK7hpIkVI?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>In early 2019, <a href="https://time.com/5804656/ubi-yang-coronavirus/" target="_blank">Andrew Yang</a> began gaining news coverage regarding the central theme of his presidential campaign: $1,000 a month in universal basic income (UBI) dispersed to every American. His primary argument for the necessity of this safety net rested on the belief that the coming age of automation was about to inundate vast scores of our current jobs with a shrinking percentage of elite tech corporations gobbling up more and more of the profit. When Yang first introduced his vision, it seemed to belong to a remote dystopian future with little relevance to the booming economy and low unemployment figures that was the reality until only weeks ago. On the right, he was lambasted as a communist seeking to turn American citizens into dependents to the state. On the left, his ideas were dismissed as other Democratic hopefuls touted the Green New Deal and job programs.</p><p>Fast forward to today and Andrew Yang's UBI theory has moved straight into the forefront. Trump, perhaps cognizant that the "Yang Gang" pulled a great deal of support from his own supporters, quickly recognized the popularity of his ideas and the need to provide supplemental income to Americans as shelter-in-place directives began to take hold throughout the country. The massive <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/coronavirus-checks-direct-deposits-are-coming-here-s-everything-you-n1168936" target="_blank">$2 trillion</a> coronavirus emergency stimulus will provide every American earning $75,000 or less, regardless of current employment, a check of $1,200 per person and $500 per child for the duration of the crisis. There has been little debate over the necessity of this measure because it has proven to be widely popular to the public, regardless of political standing. It lifts some of the immediate and pressing need to work and helps take some of the edge off from isolating at home, thus contributing to a quicker resolution of this health crisis by sending fewer people out into the streets.</p><blockquote>Although the pandemic and the stimulus check is temporary, this crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future would look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure. </blockquote>
<p>Although the stimulus package is a stopgap measure to deal with this crisis, its absolute necessity during this crisis has validated Yang's prophetic vision of a dystopian future where work no longer becomes possible for huge swathes of the American people. The reality is that the after effects of this crisis will be felt for at least months after the pandemic ends. There is little security for either the business owners or employees of food service businesses, bars, hair and nail salons and essentially any business that requires large crowds of people to gather and interact. To the initial detractors of UBI who argued that the program would breed laziness and a welfare state, the reality is that for most workers thrown into the sea of uncertainty, receiving a stimulus check will provide a small lifeline but will ultimately be of little solace to individuals who are accustomed to earning far more and who derive a sense of pride and satisfaction from their jobs. For most of those impacted by loss of employment, supplemental income in the form of a UBI helps take the edge off but it is ultimately no replacement for having a job or business.</p><p>Although the pandemic and the stimulus check is temporary, this crisis has ushered in a glimpse of what a dystopian future would look like as a rapidly advancing fourth industrial revolution inevitably causes severe disruption in our economy and labor structure. Automation and artificial intelligence are coming and will significantly alter the way we work, shop, eat and socialize. As society experiences the disruptive force of technology and draws on our collective experiences fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, UBI may become a permanent fixture of our political economy as well.</p>
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An Intelligence That Can See Its Own Future Created by Scientists
UC Berkeley researchers create a robot that learns by playing and can predict the future of its actions.
06 December, 2017
Credit: UC Berkeley
<p class="p1">Researchers from UC Berkeley have created a technology that allows robots to imagine how their actions will turn out in the future. Using this approach, the robots are able to interact with objects that they’ve never come across previously.<span> </span></p><p class="p1">The way the technology helps the robots predict the future is called <strong>visual foresight. </strong>It gives the robotic system an ability to anticipate what future actions, like a series of movements, would look like in its camera.</p><p class="p1">In essence, a robotic imagination is invoked, allowing predictions several seconds into the future. This is not much but lets the robot named <strong>Vestri</strong> perform tasks without help from humans or much background information about the environment. The visual imagination is improved simply through unsupervised exploration, with the robot playing with objects on a table like a child. That helps the robot build a predictive model of the environment and use to control objects it hasn’t encountered previously. </p><p class="p7">Check out this video on how Vestri uses imagination to perform tasks:</p><p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b07d31124aa3a37bc2f4e1b1da441c5d"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Li_vZVpiFSA?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span></p><p class="p1">Underlying this ability is <strong>deep learning</strong> based on technology called <strong>“dynamic neural advection (DNA)”.</strong> Models using DNA predict how pixels in an image will look like in the next frame depending on the robot’s action. Advancements in such video prediction models allow for greater planning capacity for robots as well as performance of complex tasks like changing positions of various objects and sliding toys around obstacles.</p><p class="p3"><span class="s1"><strong>Sergey</strong> <strong>Levine</strong>, assistant professor at Berkeley, whose lab developed the technology, thinks robotic imagination can make the machines learn intricate skills.</span></p><blockquote>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">"In the same way that we can imagine how our actions will move the objects in our environment, this method can enable a robot to visualize how different behaviors will affect the world around it," <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-12/uoc--nrc120417.php" target="_blank">said Levine.</a> ”This can enable intelligent planning of highly flexible skills in complex real-world situations."</span></p>
</blockquote><p class="p4"><span class="s1">He compared the learning method to how children learn by playing with toys. This research gives robots the same opportunity.</span> </p><p class="p4"><span class="s1"><strong>Chelsea Finn, </strong>a doctoral student from Levine's lab, who is also the inventor of the original DNA model, remarked that the significant advancement here is that robots can now learn on their own.</span></p><blockquote>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">"In that past, robots have learned skills with a human supervisor helping and providing feedback," <a href="http://news.berkeley.edu/2017/12/04/robots-see-into-their-future/" target="_blank">said Finn.</a> What makes this work exciting is that the robots can learn a range of visual object manipulation skills entirely on their own."<span> </span></span></p>
</blockquote><p class="p7">This tech can find application in self-driving cars that need to predict future events or in robotic assistants.<span> </span></p>
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Want to survive job automation? Don't think like a robot
Here's why coding skills alone won't save you from job automation.
29 November, 2017
The conventional wisdom developing in the face of job automation is to skill up: learn how to code, become a member of the rising tech economy. Venture capitalist Scott Hartley, however, thinks that may be counterproductive. "Just because you have rote technical ability, you may actually be more susceptible to job automation than someone who has flexible thinking skills," he says. Retraining yourself in tech-based areas is smart, but the smartest way to survive job automation is to develop your soft skills—like improvisation, relational intelligence, and critical thinking. Believe it or not, those 'softer' assets will rule in the digital age, so play to what makes you human. In time, everything else will be done by a robot. Scott Hartley is the author of The Fuzzy and the Techie: Why the Liberal Arts Will Rule the Digital World.
Here's why MIT scientists want to develop a robot drinking buddy
It's not just for the lols. If you're up for some soul-searching, they need you to contribute to this MIT research survey...
26 November, 2017
Image: Bongo Entertainment Inc.
I recently had a conversation with a colleague that works with me in the MIT AgeLab. He specializes in AI and machine learning. As we walked and discussed his current work on autonomous vehicles, I asked him, “Where would you like to take your research?” Without missing a beat he responded, “I would like to build a robot that you would want to have a conversation with.”
<p></p><p>Robots may be rapidly losing their novelty. It seems that in just a few short years they have become ubiquitous. Sometimes we don’t even recognize the robots that are <em>living</em> among us. Once things of science fiction, they are now in nearly every discount store. Some are toys. Hasbro’s <a href="https://joyforall.hasbro.com/en-us" target="_blank">Joy for All</a> robots are designed to provide companionship to older adults while <a href="http://www.parorobots.com" target="_blank">PARO</a>, a robotic seal, serves as a therapeutic intervention helping those suffering from PTSD or from dementia. Thanks to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-Alexa-Black/dp/B00X4WHP5E" target="_blank">Amazon Echo</a>, <a href="https://store.google.com/product/google_home" target="_blank">Google Home</a> and others, bots are making shopping lists, playing music, controlling home lighting and temperature, even offering personal exercise routines. Other <a href="http://www.irobot.com" target="_blank">robots</a> are vacuuming our floors and cutting our lawns.</p> <p></p><div class="video-callout-placeholder" data-slug="richard-dawkins-richard-dawkins-why-ai-might-run-the-world-better-than-humans-do" style="border: 1px solid #ccc;">
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</div> <p></p><p>Most people see robots as complex devices to fulfill a specific task. But, beyond obvious applications in transportation, law enforcement, logistics, work, shopping and healthcare, robotics will soon reshape our most personal moments.</p> <p></p><p>Changing global demographics and living patterns may provide a new role for AI — keeping us company. Today, nearly 30 percent of households in the United States are households of one. Home alone living is more pronounced in some cities than others. For example, nearly half of all households in the cities of Atlanta and Washington, DC are people living solo. In some parts of Europe nearly half of households are comprised of a single person. <a href="http://blog.euromonitor.com/2017/03/households-2030-singletons.html" target="_blank">Euromonitor</a> reports that over the next 14 years, households of one will increase faster than households comprised of couples, families or roommates. Nearly 120 million new single-person households will be formed worldwide over the next decade and a half.</p> <p></p><p>That brings me back to my friend who plans to build a robot you would want to have a conversation with—the emphasis is on <em>want</em>. A recent <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/10/hiroshi-ishiguro-when-robots-act-just-like-humans/" target="_blank">article</a> in <em>Wired</em> suggests that even robots designed for sex may be far less complex than design challenges associated with creating the intimacy one needs to feel and want to have a conversation. <em>Wanting</em> to have a conversation with someone depends on many factors. One of them is the likeability of your conversation partner.</p> <p></p><div class="video-callout-placeholder" data-slug="should-we-be-scared-of-ai" style="border: 1px solid #ccc;">
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</div> <p></p><p>Well beyond the formidable technical requirements of engineering a conversational robot are the equally challenging elements of <em>likeability.</em> Understanding what behaviors, physical features and other elements contribute to what makes us want to share a few minutes with someone, or some <em>thing</em>, will require integrating insights from the social and behavioral sciences as well as the arts and humanities. </p> <p></p><p>The 2004 presidential election provides one dimension of what likeability might mean in the public’s mind. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/02/trump_is_winning_the_guy_you_d_want_to_have_a_beer_with_election.html" target="_blank">Many observers</a> found it difficult to explain George Bush’s 2004 defeat of John Kerry. Pollsters and pundits came to the conclusion that Bush’s victory was less about policy and more about who was more likeable. George Bush was described simply as the guy <em>who you’d want to have a beer with</em>. The <em>beer test</em> is now considered the standard for both electability and likeability.</p> <p></p><p>What design features and capabilities would a robot need to include for you to want have a beer (and a conversation) with it? Can we design a likeable robot?</p> <p></p><div class="video-callout-placeholder" data-slug="alan-alda-we-were-built-to-connect-with-other-people-heres-how-to-be-better-at-it" style="border: 1px solid #ccc;">
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</div> <p></p><p>Appearance does matter. What would you want your 'bot to look like? Should it have a human form—somewhere between cool and creepy? Some people might prefer an animal shape similar to a favorite pet. Others might want an entirely novel creature—a talking narwhal perhaps?</p> <p></p><p>Would gender matter? Just as online navigation systems allow users to choose the gender of the voice providing directions, what gender would you want your conversation buddy to have?</p> <p></p><p>And, then there is the conversation itself. What would you want to talk about with your ‘bot—news, weather, money, sports, other people? Netflix videos? Romance? Sex? Should your robot have a sense of humor?</p> <p></p><p>Robot conversations will demand an entirely new level of interpersonal trust. Are beer ‘bot chats to be confidential? Would you expect your robot companion to keep all your secrets? After hearing your secrets, would you want advice from your AI? </p> <p></p><p>If you find the idea of having a conversation and a beer (or any other beverage of your choice) with robot interesting, help us identify the elements of your ideal robot. We are collecting ideas and preferences in a brief survey and invite you to contribute. Take our survey <strong><a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfbEM66D5DPIVYXRoCYVNk0uBldJHhlQ28ZQEDcKiGK87Bk5A/viewform?usp=sf_link" target="_blank">here</a></strong>. This is not a scientific poll, but rather a thought exercise to inspire and inform our thinking. <span>General results will be reported on the MIT AgeLab website: </span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://agelab.mit.edu&sa=D&ust=1511888062014000&usg=AFQjCNF1xlCbz0lEoT-FHDtVwKeKTI25xw" target="_blank">agelab.mit.edu</a><span>.</span></p> <p></p><p>Likeability is a profoundly human perception and quality. If we are to develop a robot that we want to spend time with and speak with, not just give orders to, we will need to better understand those human qualities before we can engineer them into our new AI friends at home.</p> <p></p><div class="video-full-card-placeholder" data-slug="do-androids-dream-of-stealing-your-job-2" style="border: 1px solid #ccc;">
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Humans could be marrying robots by 2050, claims robot expert
Author and robot expert Dr. David Levy explains how marriage with robots will come in the next several decades as technological and societal transformations take place.
31 December, 2016
The pool of potential romantic partners is about to increase dramatically. Author and robot expert Dr. David Levy thinks that before 2050 we’ll be marrying robots.
<blockquote>
<p>“Sex and love with robots at a human level may appear to be a long way off, but the future has a way of laughing at you,” <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2437596/first-marriage-to-a-robot-will-happen-before-2050-by-which-time-sexbots-will-be-more-attractive-than-humans/" target="_blank"><span>said Levy</span></a>. </p>
</blockquote> <p><span>Speaking recently in London, Dr. Levy, author of the bestselling book ‘Love and Sex with Robots’, </span>proposes that robots will have a number of advantages over human partners. They will be “enormously attractive” and feature advanced artificial intelligence that could adapt to you intellectually and sexually. </p> <p>Like all our adaptations of technology, it might happen all of a sudden and could easily become commonplace. </p> <blockquote>
<p>“We’re being forced to contemplate what human-robot relationships will be like a generation or two from now,” <a href="http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/humans-could-start-marrying-robots-as-early-as-2050-experts-predict" target="_blank"><span>he said</span></a>. “As love and sex with robots becomes more commonplace, we should come face to face with the very real possibility of marriage with robots.<span> </span>When robots are sufficiently human-like, sufficiently appealing socially, to the point where they can act as our companions, why not extend that companionship to marriage if neither party is against the idea?”</p>
</blockquote> <p>But how will societies, already having a hard time dealing with human outsiders, adapt to such a transformational change? </p> <blockquote>
<p>“As more and more people come to accept the concepts of sex and love with robots, so societies will develop laws that govern human-robot relationships," <a href="http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/humans-could-start-marrying-robots-as-early-as-2050-experts-predict" target="_blank"><span>stated Dr. Levy</span></a>.<span> </span>"By the time there are no laws to prevent human-robot marriages, robots will be patient, kind, subjective, loving, interesting, truthful, persevering, respectful, uncomplaining, pleasant to talk to and showing a sense of humour.<span> </span>And the robots of the future will not be jealous, boastful, arrogant, rude, self-seeking or easily angered, unless of course you want them to be." </p>
</blockquote> <p><span><a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2447039/british-law-will-bend-to-allow-humans-and-robots-to-marry-sooner-than-you-think/" target="_blank">He does consider</a> that there might be a civil-rights struggle for AI lifeforms initially but with time any restrictions “</span>will begin to fall by the wayside just as laws preventing interracial marriage did in the 1960s and same sex marriage during did in the past decade.”</p> <p>Dr. Levy sees three criteria for robots to marry humans - consent, understanding and ability to make decisions. </p> <p>Given the advances in artificial intelligence technology, these might be met quite soon. </p> <p><em>Cover photo: A Robot 'Tiro' acts as master of ceremonies at a wedding for Seok Gyeong-Jae (L), one of the engineers who designed it, and his bride in Daejeon, 130 kilometers (78 miles) south of Seoul, 17 June 2007. AFP PHOTO/CHOI WON-SUK (Photo credit: CHOI WON-SUK/AFP/Getty Images)</em></p>
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