from the world's big
A survey conducted at the Joint Multi-Conference on Human-Level Artificial Intelligence shows that 37% of respondents believe human-like artificial intelligence will be achieved within five to 10 years.
- Human-like AI, or artificial general intelligence (AGI), would occur when a machine can perform any cognitive task that a human can.
- Although computers can outperform us in some narrow tasks, no one AI can outperform humans on a wide variety of general cognitive tasks.
- Not all experts believe we're close to AGI. But most agree the field has been making significant progress, especially in recent years.
A surprising survey<p>The answer is yes and within five to 10 years, according to 37% of respondents to a survey issued at the <a href="https://www.hlai-conf.org/" target="_blank">Joint Multi-Conference on Human-Level Artificial Intelligence</a> (HLAI) held last month in Prague.</p><p>The survey, which was conducted by the AI startup SingularityNET and the AI research and development company GoodAI, found that 28% of respondents expected AGI to emerge within the next two decades while just 2% didn't believe humans will ever develop AGI.</p><p>The survey also asked respondents to rate the sectors in which they thought AI could have the greatest impact. The results broke down like this:<span></span></p><ul><li>Healthcare (46%)</li><li>Logistics (41%)</li><li>Customer service (38%)</li><li>Banking and finance (34%)</li><li>Agriculture; retail, software development; manufacturing (28%)</li></ul>"It's no secret that machines are <a href="https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/images/future-timeline-technology-singularity.jpg" target="_blank" class="hoverZoomLink">advancing exponentially</a> and will eventually surpass human intelligence," said Ben Goertzel, SingularityNET's CEO and creator of the software behind a social, humanoid robot named <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophia_(robot)" target="_blank">Sophia</a>. "But, as these survey results suggest, an increasing number of experts believe this 'Singularity' point may occur much sooner than is commonly thought. Artificial general intelligence at the human level or beyond, as many respondents to our poll noted, could very well become a reality within the next decade."
Gauging expectations<p>A <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf" target="_blank">2016 survey</a> of AI researchers who had been published in top peer-reviewed journals found slightly less exciting results. The survey asked respondents to rate how many years it would be before AI possessed "high-level machine intelligence," which they defined as being "achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers."</p><p>The respondents were asked about specific AI milestones, such as when AI would be outperform humans in complex tasks like surgery.</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xODY2NTQyOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyOTA0OTI5MX0.lE0aWZhiwSPAKTu1wym2XSkOjXJykPIQeRpOoWHC6Dc/img.jpg?width=980" id="26126" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3f2e60e26addb3c30da70955d314225e" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Timelines showing 50% probability intervals for achieving selected AI milestones based on survey respondent opinions. Specifically, intervals represent the date range from the 25% to 75% probability of the event occurring. Circles denote the 50%-probability year that AI will achieve or exceed human performance.
Grace et al., 2018.