Here's how the world picks sides in the Venezuela crisis
Worryingly, these are not just two random collections of countries, but two blocs with a lot of pre-existing enmity.
- The U.S. has urged the world to 'pick sides' in Venezuela's constitutional crisis.
- This map shows which countries continue to support Maduro, and which ones have thrown their weight behind Guaidó.
- Could this be the first intimation of a new Cold War – or worse?
Since last Wednesday, Venezuela has two presidents. The world map above shows which countries (in red) support Nicolas Maduro, whose re-election last May many observers say was rigged; and which ones (in dark blue) support Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader who declared himself 'interim president' last week.
There's something more going on with that map, however – something ominous about the two camps that have coalesced on it. These are not just two random groups of countries. These are two camps, with plenty of grievance and enmity between them. Some of the borders between both blocs are even active frontlines. Could this be the outline of a new Cold War, or if cooler heads don't prevail, a hot one perhaps?
With neighbors like these...
Most of Venezuela's neighbors have recognized the presidency of Guaidó, but Maduro can count on the continued support of Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia, and a few others.
All that for Venezuela's sake? If that sounds ludicrous, think back to 1914. Few people back then could find Serbia on a world map, let alone understand what its beef with Austria-Hungary was about. How quickly that escalated into the First World War.
Although the cause might have been obscure, the war itself was not a surprise. Decades-old rivalry between the great powers of that time had escalated into deepening enmity. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 26 of that year set in motion a complex array of alliances and counter-alliances. Just over a month later, on August 4, German armies plowed into Belgium.
Of course, history never repeats itself exactly. But there are patterns. Like the Balkan conflict in 1914, Venezuela's constitutional crisis is a local power struggle with a global dimension. So what do both sides look like?
Europe is on the fence, for now
Europe's compromise position: Recognize the authority of the National Assembly, but not yet the legitimacy of Guaidó's presidency. In darker blue: the handful of countries already agreeing with the U.S. position.
Maduro is anti-U.S. and the U.S. is anti-Maduro. Following the 'enemy of my enemy' principle, the U.S. recognized Guaidó almost immediately after his self-proclamation, followed by most other countries in the Americas. Notable exception: Mexico, which initially took Maduro's side, but has since moved into the neutral camp.
The main international allies of Venezuela are Cuba and Russia, which remained loyal to Maduro's presidency; but he also got official support from other countries friendly to his regime: China, Iran, Turkey and South Africa, to name the most important ones. Regionally, Maduro can also count on the support of Bolivia, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Suriname.
Europe is colored light blue: The UK, Spain, Germany, France and most other EU members (plus a few other countries, including Ukraine, Norway and, further afield, Japan) have declared a compromise position. They support the National Assembly (run by the opposition and presided by Guaidó) but not yet the latter's presidency. The UK, Spain, Germany and others have called on Maduro to call fresh elections. If he doesn't do so within eight days, they will recognize Guaidó.
The Pro-Maduro Club
From Brest-Litovsk all the way to the Taiwan Strait, this is Maduro country.
In a number of cases, the Maduro/Guaidó split aligns with pre-existing local enmities: Palestine and Israel, Georgia and Russia, China and Taiwan – if one likes Maduro, the other likes Guaidó. Choices can also be markers of allegiance. The darkest blues in Europe (i.e. Georgia, Kosovo, Albania) are also arguably America's most loyal allies in the region. Syria's declaration for Maduro will have something to do with its alliance with Russia. Turkey, traditionally a U.S. ally, is siding with the other camp.
With the backing of globally relevant allies, and that of most of Venezuela's military, Maduro is unlikely to agree to either the demands by the Europeans (for new elections) or the offer by Guaidó (of amnesty, if he leaves office peacefully).
Where does this go from here? On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told an emergency session of the UN Security Council that it was "time for other countries to pick a side". One way to take the temperature of the crisis is to monitor this map on Wikimedia Commons, which is continuously being updated as countries do just that – pick sides.
Strange Maps #958
Got a strange map? Let me know at email@example.com
- Venezuela's Military Backs Maduro, as Russia Warns U.S. Not to ... ›
- Venezuela: Almost all Latin America, like Trump, supports Maduro rival ›
- Which countries support Venezuelan president Maduro over Guaidó ... ›
What can 3D printing do for medicine? The "sky is the limit," says Northwell Health researcher Dr. Todd Goldstein.
- Medical professionals are currently using 3D printers to create prosthetics and patient-specific organ models that doctors can use to prepare for surgery.
- Eventually, scientists hope to print patient-specific organs that can be transplanted safely into the human body.
- Northwell Health, New York State's largest health care provider, is pioneering 3D printing in medicine in three key ways.
- Push Past Negative Self-Talk: Give Yourself the Proper Fuel to Attack the World, with David Goggins, Former NAVY SealIf you've ever spent 5 minutes trying to meditate, you know something most people don't realize: that our minds are filled, much of the time, with negative nonsense. Messaging from TV, from the news, from advertising, and from difficult daily interactions pulls us mentally in every direction, insisting that we focus on or worry about this or that. To start from a place of strength and stability, you need to quiet your mind and gain control. For former NAVY Seal David Goggins, this begins with recognizing all the negative self-messaging and committing to quieting the mind. It continues with replacing the negative thoughts with positive ones.
As Game of Thrones ends, a revealing resolution to its perplexing geography.
- The fantasy world of Game of Thrones was inspired by real places and events.
- But the map of Westeros is a good example of the perplexing relation between fantasy and reality.
- Like Britain, it has a Wall in the North, but the map only really clicks into place if you add Ireland.
- Master Execution: How to Get from Point A to Point B in 7 Steps, with Rob Roy, Retired Navy SEALUsing the principles of SEAL training to forge better bosses, former Navy SEAL and founder of the Leadership Under Fire series Rob Roy, a self-described "Hammer", makes people's lives miserable in the hopes of teaching them how to be a tougher—and better—manager. "We offer something that you are not going to get from reading a book," says Roy. "Real leaders inspire, guide and give hope."Anybody can make a decision when everything is in their favor, but what happens in turbulent times? Roy teaches leaders, through intense experiences, that they can walk into any situation and come out ahead. In this lesson, he outlines seven SEAL-tested steps for executing any plan—even under extreme conditions or crisis situations.
SMARTER FASTER trademarks owned by The Big Think, Inc. All rights reserved.