Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Professor of Politics, NYU and Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Silver Professor of Politics at New York University. He is an expert on international conflict, foreign policy formation, and nation building. His current research focuses on the links between political institutions, economic growth, and political change. He is also investigating the causes and consequences of international conflict as well as national security policy forecasting and analysis.

Using a proprietary mathematical formula that takes into account the self-interests of and alliances among actors in key business and political questions (i.e. whether Iran will build nuclear weapons), de Mesquita predicts the future for businesses and organizations such as the CIA.

His most recent books include The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics (PublicAffairs, 2011) and The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future (Random House, Inc., 2009)Additionally, he has authored more than one hundred articles and fourteen books on politics, as well as one published novel, The Trial of Ebenezer Scrooge (Ohio State University Press, 2001).

On the Fundamental Inconvenience of Democracy

From the perspective of a leader, somebody who wants to hold onto power, it’s the worst form of government because it puts you at the greatest risk of losing power.

Power Corrupts, Corruption Empowers

There is an interesting interplay between power corrupting and corruption empowering. The causality does not go one way.

Why It’s So Hard to Read a Leader’s Intentions

We really can’t tell the difference between people who might seek power for some greater good and people who seek power just to aggrandize themselves.

How I Poured Cold Water on a Nuclear Iran

People were talking about a third world war, which thank God didn’t happen.

Almost All Strategic Problems Can Be Solved with Game Theory

I think almost all strategic problems could at least be improved upon if people would do more careful game theoretic analysis.

Altruism Gets You Killed

There are people who throw themselves on a live hand grenade to save their buddies and these folks don’t rise to power.

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How to Stay in Office: Select Your Voters

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita argues that gerrymandering gives incumbents a wildly unfair advantage.

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The Rules of Power: What Che and Hitler Have In Common

If we accept Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s claim that remaining in power is the primary motivation of our leaders, then the political structure of a nation is the single most […]

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Shareholders of the World, Unite!

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita argues that occupying a park will never reform Wall Street. The right approach, instead, he says, is to change the system from within. That means shareholders […]

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Power Corrupts, Corruption Empowers

In The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita nakedly examines the (often ugly) means by which people are able to gain and […]

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The Five Rules of Power Politics

Democracy, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, is the worst form of government from the leader’s perspective.

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The Art of Sham Elections

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How to Buy a Car, Using Game Theory

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, author of The Predictioneer’s Game, shares his foolproof method for getting your next car for the lowest price possible.

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Is High College Tuition Defensible?

Coming from an upper middle class family, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita says, he could have afforded to pay some tuition. Instead, he was the beneficiary of the tax dollars of […]

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