What long-term investors can learn from John Keats

In a recent episode of Talking Billions, Chris Mayer, author of 100 Baggers and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, sat down with host Bogumil Baranowski to delve into the art of long-term investing.

The highlight? A fascinating discussion on the paradox of embracing uncertainty to unlock exponential outcomes. It’s a mindset shift that challenges the core of human nature — and one of the toughest, yet most rewarding, aspects of playing the long game.

To me, Mayer’s insights echo the poetic philosophy of John Keats, who introduced the concept of negative capability — the ability to remain comfortable with uncertainty and doubts about the future. For Keats, this openness was the hallmark of creative genius. For Mayer, it’s the essential quality for investors who must navigate the inherently unpredictable nature of markets — and the long timeframes required for wealth to compound.

Key quote: “I think that investing in quality generally requires embracing uncertainty. One of the appeals of the older Ben Graham style of investing, where you’re buying something below book value, for example, is that it gives you an anchor. It feels more comfortable to buy below book value or at a very low multiple. But most of the time, when you’re buying a truly great business, it’s very difficult to assign any kind of intrinsic value to it. As you said, it’s about compounding capital at a high rate. Directionally, you know it’s going to be worth a lot more money in five or ten years — you just don’t know how much more. There’s this wide range of possibilities, but you can’t pinpoint exactly where it will go. You have to be comfortable with that uncertainty.”

A neuroscientist explains the 5 steps to achieve creative flow

The neuroscientist and writer Anne-Laure Le Cunff recently shared a simple truth: creative flow isn’t just for rare moments of inspiration — you can train yourself to get there.

Flow is that magical state where time disappears, distractions fade, and ideas come effortlessly. Le Cunff outlines five steps to make it happen: tackle tasks that challenge but don’t overwhelm you, get your tools in order, ditch distractions (seriously, put your phone in another room), use mindfulness to center yourself, and stay present in the moment. Her approach isn’t about squeezing out more productivity — it’s about unlocking joy and deeper connection in your work.

Key quote: “Have you ever been so deeply immersed in a creative activity — writing, designing, coding, or even brainstorming — that time seemed to disappear, and the world around you faded away? This state is known as being in the zone or getting in the flow… But constant distractions and demands make it harder than ever to reach this state. We’re constantly interrupted, pulled in different directions, and overloaded with information. Fortunately, with the right techniques, it’s possible to make this level of focus a regular part of your work. So how can you reliably get into a state of creative flow?”

A few more links I enjoyed:

Luca Dellanna on Why Investors Must Understand Ergodicity – via Latticework by MOI Global

Key quote: “‍The good way to think about it is to get rid of survivorship bias. You want to look at winners and ask yourself, “If we take 100 people with the same strategy as theirs, how many of them ends up winning?” If the answer is not 100, then you have a strategy which is not reproducible, meaning that if you were to adopt the same strategy, you are not guaranteed those results. Non-reproducible strategies work when you have a lot of people adopting them so that some drop out of the race but there are still some winners.”

Unlocking the Brain with David Eagleman – via Annie Duke

Key quote: “But humans, we actually spend most of our time, not in the here and now, but in the there and then, either thinking about our past or simulating possible futures. And we’re extraordinarily good at it. Now, that said, the caveat here is that, you know, we often misremember. Our memories are actually quite poor in many ways. And whenever we’re remembering an event that’s already happened, that gets polluted with new data that we’ve had since then, and we simulate possible futures, but of course that is limited by our experience.”

The Price of Passion (Life is like a jar of marbles) – via Frederik Gieschen

Key quote: “What is the point of passionately outworking everyone if you end up hating what you once loved? Some investors refuse to retire, but others seem to get consumed by the game. Legends like Soros, Peter Lynch, and Julian Robertson burned out. Even [Stanley] Druckenmiller nearly quit after blowing up during the dot-com bubble. Only a half-year sabbatical gave him the perspective for a comeback trade. What is the price of this passion?”

Understanding Pricing – via Seth Godin

Key quote: “Price is based on the purchaser’s worldview and situation, not the producer’s. The price paid will always be less than the value it creates for the purchaser. And the price is never more than the amount the purchaser can exchange.”

From the archives:

The Tail End – via Wait But Why (2015)

Key quote: “What I’ve been thinking about is a really important part of life that […] isn’t spread out evenly through time — something whose [already done / still to come] ratio doesn’t at all align with how far I am through life: Relationships… When you look at that reality, you realize that despite not being at the end of your life, you may very well be nearing the end of your time with some of the most important people in your life. If I lay out the total days I’ll ever spend with each of my parents — assuming I’m as lucky as can be — this becomes starkly clear.”