Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, has been delivering his insightful Top Risks Report for 15 years. The primary objective? To systematically outline how we should approach the world’s most significant threats and opportunities in any given year.

Bremmer’s Top Risks report stands in stark contrast to the clickbait and anger-inducing algorithmic news dominating social platforms. Rather than succumbing to sensationalism, the report serves as a rallying point for professionals and the wider public to focus on what truly matters for global success. It navigates the realm of reality, steering away from ideology and personal biases.

“The G-Zero world and America first are working together in lockstep, and that means more ungoverned spaces, more rogue actors, more geopolitical instability and more conflict. That’s where we’re heading in 2025.” 

Here, Bremmer presents his top 10 risks demanding our attention and preparation in the year 2025.

IAN BREMMER: - It's 2025, and I know a lot of people are anxious about where the world is heading, about our global order or lack thereof. There is so much more uncertainty and volatility in a world that is moving fast with big countries that are more at odds with each other and with fewer rules of the road that leaders, companies and societies are adhering to. Every year for about 20 years now, we've put out this top risks report, and I'd like to take you through our top risks for 2025. Number 10, Mexican standoff. The US-Mexico relationship is under a lot of pressure in the coming year more than in the first Trump administration. There's more that the US wants the Mexicans to change demands that the Mexican change, you've got a larger trade deficit between the US and Mexico. You have lots of Chinese goods that are going through Mexico into the United States that the US isn't happy with. You've got, of course, a continued illegal migration issue with lots of people coming into the US, including through Mexico from other countries around the world, especially Latin America, and you've got a lot of fentanyl coming into the US creating a bigger drug crisis. Claudia Sheinbaum, the president in Mexico is aware of all of this and wants to come to a deal with the United States, but it's gonna be more challenging than she thinks, in part because there's so many issues in part because Trump has consolidated power to a much greater degree this time around. And also in part because her former president, AMLO had a pretty good personal relationship with Trump and Sheinbaum as a scientist with a PhD in environmental studies from Berkeley has all the demographics that you know are gonna be really hard for Trump to get on with personally. Plus, the peso is in trouble in Mexico because of hangover policies from that last AMLO administration. Constitutional reforms like judicial reform that the markets don't like, so they don't have a lot of flexibility to get things wrong. Ultimately, the US-Mexico relationship will stabilize again, but this year is gonna be challenging for them. Number nine, ungoverned spaces. In a world that lacks global leadership, actors can act with impunity and a bunch of places that you would like to have proper governance don't, and now it's not a high level risk because so many of these places don't have big knock-on effects on the major economies in the world, but they're growing and it deserves our attention. In the Middle East, we're talking about places like Syria with a difficult time for HGS to consolidate power now that Assad is gone. Yemen, of course, with a civil war, Gaza following the war with Israel, but still dealing with an occupation. You've got Sudan with tens of millions, literally tens of millions facing severe distress on the ground following their war across the entire Sahel in Africa, Myanmar in Southeast Asia, and even in America's backyard, Haiti. Larger and larger numbers of territories with populations that are incapable of being governed properly and stably that will create more radicalism. It will lead to more forced migration around the world. There's also ungoverned spaces outside of individual countries like in near Earth orbit and under the sea, where lots of countries and non-governmental actors are also acting with impunity and refusing to accept international governance and international cooperation. That's why we see the Red Sea is less passable than it used to be as the Houthis are popping rockets off at those trying to go through it's, you know, while you look at cables for fiber and gas pipelines that suddenly get blown up by the Russians or by others. It's why you're gonna have difficulties with potential satellite crashes as more and more companies and governments are putting up rockets into the atmosphere but aren't coordinating with others as to where they are and how they're operating. All of that means less public goods, less globalization that works for the benefit of all more fragmentation and more conflict. That's risk number nine. Number eight, AI unbound. And of course, this is the most exciting new technological development in the world, unlocking a massive amount of human capital and industrial innovation, all good things. But that money investment, the energy, the compute that is going into developing AI is far, far greater and faster than the regulatory environment to try to ensure that it's channeled for productive and sustainable outcomes. The early stage regulations that we saw are going to be unwound to a degree. The executive order on AI by the Biden administration done together with systemically important AI companies in the United States will likely be unwound by the Trump administration. In Europe, there is a lot of regret over focusing too much on regulation, not enough on growth and innovation. The US had a nascent conversation with the Chinese on trying to ensure that we don't get involved in an AI arms race. That's probably gonna break down, and it wasn't going very far last year. Anyway, the Americans, the Europeans, have a transatlantic dialogue on technology and economy that's probably gonna fall apart too. You know, the best way to look at this is the Brits last year had a summit that was gonna plant their flag on how they were gonna matter in AI. It was called the AI Safety Summit. This year, they're rebranding it. It's the AI Action Summit. All sounds great except for when you're using AI in ways that are dangerous and that will be true between the Americans and the Chinese. As they start fighting in a new potential Cold War around these issues, it's gonna very quickly become confrontation and also as individual actors use open source AI to figure out how to disrupt markets or to assassinate people. This is coming faster than you think, and we're only gonna realize it when the crises hit. The number seven risk is beggar thy world. The United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, are exporting a lot of their economic and political concerns, and it's gonna hit other countries harder. What do I mean by that? Well, the Americans are unhappy with how globalization has been running. They want to ensure that there are tariffs on other countries that get more production back into the United States, and they also want their allies to work a lot less with China as they move to decouple that economic relationship. The Chinese have a serious problem with economic growth. Its substandard, and their consumer model has really underperformed. That means that the only part of the Chinese economy that's going gangbusters is their export manufacturing, which is very cheap and is leading to trade surpluses with pretty much everybody. You get caught in between that with the US-China relationship in itself is more fractious. Other countries are gonna face difficulties that's on the back of the pandemic with interest rates that are higher with indebtedness levels that are higher, they're going to be extremely constrained. We've already started to see this with Brazil that had some difficulties just in basic fiscal management, and the markets punished them dearly and their currency took a big hit. Emerging markets and developed countries around the world are facing more challenging economic environment because the Americans and the Chinese are engaged in beggar thy world policies. Number six, Iran on the ropes. The biggest risk in the Middle East this year is Iran. The wars in Lebanon with Hezbollah in Gaza, with Hamas are largely winding down, should effectively end this sheer. But Iran is the principle enemy of the United States and of Israel, and it's increasingly likely that they're going to do something about it. Iran's very weak. They've lost their axis of resistance, essentially the empire that they had to project power across the region. Hamas has lost, Hezbollah has lost, the Syrian regime has been overthrown, and what that leaves them with is a very poorly functioning economy. It leaves them with an 85-year-old ailing supreme leader with no clear successor and a very rest of an angry population. Now, their military is willing to use force to ensure that stability is maintained, but the people are getting angrier. Their story is getting worse, reminds me a lot of the Soviet Union, not in 1991, but back in '89 when the wall fell and this time around, there are some countries that are prepared to nudge them towards falling. Israel sees this as a unique opportunity to take the Iranian capabilities out with an understanding that Iran can't do much to Israel in response. And the Americans are certainly thinking about helping them, especially when we talk about their nuclear program. So we're gonna see more risk with Iran. We'll certainly see Trump putting much more economic pressure. The Israelis engaging in more espionage and targeted attacks. Whether or not that leads to all out war is an open question. But when you look at the Middle East, the biggest risk in 2025 is Iran. Risk number five, Russia still rogue. There is a reasonably high likelihood, more than 50-50, that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine does actually come into effect this year. President-elect Trump has said he can get it done in 24 hours. He exaggerates occasionally. It will take longer than that, but he will put a lot of pressure on Ukraine and Russia to do ordeal or else, and he will have support from most of the NATO allies in getting that deal done. The Ukrainians don't wanna lose aid from the Americans. The Russians don't want to be facing tougher sanctions, and both of them know that they need a breather because they're running out of capacity to continue to fight this war effectively. So that all sounds good. Why is it a risk? It's a risk because a ceasefire is not a breakthrough settlement and the Russians will still be under massive sanction from the West. They're still gonna be seeing a Ukraine armed to the teeth with continued support from the Europeans and the United States and Russia will still be engaged in asymmetric fighting against NATO states on the front lines like the Baltics, like Poland, like the Nordics. And here we're talking about not only efforts to destabilize those by using Telegram and paying off people to engage in arson and other sort of vandalism and even assassinations, but also willingness to attack critical infrastructure. Plus the Russians are doing their damnedest to continue to have influence in their own near abroad countries that are more aligned with the West, like Georgia, like Moldova. All of this means that Russia not as much of a risk as we saw in the teeth of the war in 2024, but a very significant one in 2025. Risk number four is Trumponomics. We're talking about two big areas. First is tariffs. Trump really believes that tariffs are a consistent policy to be used to benefit the US economy and national security. It's one of the few ideological policies that he has held firmly, not only from his first presidency, but frankly for his entire business career. And that means we are going to see an implementation of those tariffs against China as well as against allies. Some will cut deals, but not all of them, particularly not the Chinese and the economic impact will be significance. Secondarily, he was elected on the back of removing illegal immigrants from the US and he absolutely intends to get that done. Will it be 15 to 20 million? I doubt it, but a million in the first year. Very plausible, and that is gonna be supported by a lot of Americans, but it's also gonna cause cost because these illegal immigrants are consumers, they're taxpayers, Medicare, social security, local taxes. Also, they're inexpensive and the labor replacement will be inflationary. That's good for a lot of American workers, but it's problematic for the economy. So both of those are risks that we're going to see play out over 2025. Now, there are also things Trump will do that are market positive. For example, we're gonna have a rollback in intrusive regulatory policy. Taxes will also be extended at a low level, those 2017 tax cuts for corporations and for high net worth individuals that will continue, but those aren't enough to have an impact that will overshadow the challenges of tariffs and illegal immigration deportations, in part because the low hanging fruit has already been picked in the first term of Trump, and also because the macroeconomic conditions are much more difficult this time around. You already have American corporate stocks trading at much higher multiples. Debt levels are higher, inflation is higher, it's just going to be harder to move the needle. So on balance, Trumponomics market negative for 2025. Risk number three is US-China breakdown. These are the two most important economies in the world. It's the most important geopolitical relationship in the world. There's no trust between the Americans and the Chinese. That's not new, but the relationship has been managed in a comparatively stable way over the last year. In fact, since Biden and Xi Jinping met at the Woodside Summit in California one year ago, November 25, different high level channels of regular engagement of the US and China have been set into motion. That's not where we're heading with the Trump administration, much higher desire to hit the Chinese hard, hawkish orientation towards China on technology, on trade, and on security from almost all of the appointees that Trump has in key ministries on the economic side as well as national security. Now, Trump always likes to consider if a deal is possible. You saw that even with Kim Jong Un when he was president the first time around. Is he willing to talk to Xi Jinping, who he says is a very smart, very strong leader that he respects a lot? Of course he will, but I don't believe that what the Chinese will offer, like buying some more soybeans or some Boeings, if there were any available, is adequate or sufficient to get a deal done. Elon Musk, maybe if he's on that first call, maybe he wants to stabilize a relationship, but ultimately Republicans in Congress and the entire Trump administration oriented towards a new Cold War decoupling the US from China economically and expanding the area of tension and concern to include a broader definition of national security sectors, also pushing allies to hit China in the same way. All of these things imply that we will see a tit for tat from China and the two largest economies in the world will end up not in a managed decline, but an unmanaged decline. And that is very significant for geopolitics and for the global economy. Risk number two is rule of Don. The founding fathers in the United States believed that rule of law was very important and was not guaranteed, and you needed checks and balances in the US political system to ensure that rule of law didn't become rule of man. Well, it turns out that we have a very strong president coming in place who's not all that interested in checks and balances. He wants to be the decider. He has much more consolidated power around him this time around than he did as a first term president, both in the GOP, the Republican Party who are riding his coattails as opposed to the other way around. And in his administration where he has appointed loyalists across the board as opposed to well established and respected Republicans like Mike Pence or Mike Pompeo, Jim Mattis, Nikki Haley, all of those folks that were meant to reassure the party faithful that Trump wasn't gonna break too much China this time around, he's in charge. So his ability and willingness to do whatever he wants is unprecedented. It also comes on the back of Trump feeling that the Democrats and the so-called deep state used the power ministries in the United States, the Department of Justice, the FBI and others to be weaponized against him, investigations trying to throw him in jail. And so he wants to ensure that can't happen, that he wants to use those departments for his benefit, and that will lead to investigations. It'll lead to a chilling effect of political opponents to Trump. You also have Elon Musk, the wealthiest, most powerful individual in the private sector in the world, and his relationship and his closeness to Trump is unprecedented. Imagine if we were looking at India and the prime minister of India in his phone calls and meetings with heads of state or with CEOs, had Gautam Adani take part. We would say that India was becoming an oligarchy or a kleptocracy. That's exactly what's happening in the United States right now, but it's being normalized and it is utterly freaking out. Other countries around the world who are really unhappy about that development but are scared of taking on Elon too hard because, well, he's effectively a national champion for Trump, part of the military, industrial, technological complex. And What would happen to the US relationship with those countries if suddenly Elon falls outta favor? So all of that is to imply that the rule of Don is creating a large amount of unpredictability in the global geopolitical environment. Unpredictability means risk. And our risk number one for 2025 is the G-Zero wins. A G-Zero world, a world where there are no global leaders, where every nation is for itself. That is a global disorder that we've been heading towards for a long time now because the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia was not integrated into the West, and they're angry about it because China was integrated into the global economy but did not align with the United States and the West politically or economically, and the West is unhappy about it. And because lots of people in the West, especially the United States, felt like their own leaders weren't representing them, and they're angry about it for all of those reasons, we increasingly see that leaders around the world are less interested in an international community or common values or standards or institutions or rules of the road, and instead doing what they want for their own benefit. In other words, we are heading towards the law of the jungle where the powerful do what they will and the weak do what they must. That's a dangerous place to be. The United States is not in decline economically, from security perspective, technologically, all of these ways. The United States is actually much stronger than both its adversaries and its allies this year. Its adversaries China facing all of their economic challenges at home. The Russians in severe structural decline, Iran on the precipice having lost their empire, but also America's allies around the world, South Korea in disarray, the Canadians Trudeau just resigned. Germany, the government's fallen apart. France, same thing. Anywhere you look, the allies look weak, and so they're playing defense. They're just hoping that the US doesn't decide to shine a light or post a tweet against them. This is an environment where we lack global leadership. The G-Zero world and America first are working together in lockstep, and that means more ungoverned spaces, more rogue actors, more geopolitical instability and more conflict. That's where we're heading in 2025. Want to dive deeper? 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