Paul Root Wolpe: Kurzweil's Singularity Prediction is Wrong
Paul Root Wolpe, Ph.D. is the Asa Griggs Candler Professor of Bioethics, Raymond Schinazi Distinguished Research Professor of Jewish Bioethics, Professor of Medicine, Pediatrics, Psychiatry, Neuroscience and Biological Behavior, and Sociology, and the Director of the Center for Ethics at Emory University. Dr. Wolpe also serves as the Senior Bioethicist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), where he is responsible for formulating policy on bioethical issues and safeguarding research subjects. He is Co-Editor of the American Journal of Bioethics (AJOB), the premier scholarly journal in bioethics, and Editor-in-Chief of AJOB-Neuroscience, and sits on the editorial boards of over a dozen professional journals in medicine and ethics. Dr Wolpe is a past President of the American Society for Bioethics and Humanities, a Fellow of the Hastings Center, and a Fellow of the College of Physicians of Philadelphia, the country's oldest medical society.Dr. Wolpe is the author of over 125 articles, editorials, and book chapters in sociology, medicine, and bioethics, and has contributed to a variety of encyclopedias on bioethical issues. A futurist interested in social dynamics, Dr. Wolpe's work focuses on the social, religious, ethical, and ideological impact of technology on the human condition. Considered one of the founders of the field of neuroethics, which examines the ethical implications of neuroscience, he also writes about other emerging technologies, such as genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and prosthetics. His teaching and publications range across multiple fields of bioethics and sociology, including death and dying, genetics and eugenics, sexuality and gender, mental health and illness, alternative medicine, and bioethics in extreme environments such as space. He is the author of the textbook Sexuality and Gender in Society, and edited and is a key author of the end-of-life guide Behoref Hayamim: In the Winter of Life.Dr. Wolpe sits on a number of national and international non-profit organizational boards and working groups, and is a consultant to academic institutions and the biomedical industry. In July, 2010, he testified to the President's Commission on the Study of Bioethical Issues in Washington, DC on ethical issues in synthetic biology. A dynamic and popular speaker internationally, Dr. Wolpe has been chosen by The Teaching Company as a "Superstar Teacher of America" and his courses are distributed internationally on audio and videotape. He has won the World Technology Network Award in Ethics, has been featured in a TED talk, and was profiled in the November, 2011 Atlantic Magazine as a “Brave Thinker of 2011." Dr. Wolpe is a frequent contributor and commentator in both the broadcast and print media, recently featured on 60 Minutes and with a personal profile in the Science Times of the New York Times.
Paul Root Wolpe: Ray Kurzweil has argued that we’re on our way to a singularity, that is that if you look at the change and the interaction of scientific fields over the course of the last century or so and you project it forward, what you see is not a linear progression, but an exponential progression, which means that as things change they’re going to change more rapidly so that the curve will mean that over a very short period of time we will make giant leaps in scientific sophistication.
What he’s argued about that is that that is going to reach kind of critical mass, which will mean that at some point, and there are different dates that have been projected, but it’s not that far in the future; a couple of decades. We are going to be able to so manipulate human form and function, so change the nature of life that it’s impossible on this side of that moment that he calls a singularity, to predict what life will be like on the other side of that singularity.
I happen to think he’s wrong. I think that things will change. I think things will change dramatically, but I don’t think that moment’s going to come anything like in the way that he thinks it’s going to come. Society is too complex for that, our interactions with different scientific fields – look. One of the things that we have found out over and over and over again when we talk about biology and biotechnology is that things are much more complex than we think they are. First, we were going to decode the human genome and that was going to open up everything we needed to know about the nature of life. And then we said, oh no, we just finished the human genome, but we don’t really understand the proteins that these genes code for, so we have to map the proteome and then we have to get all of these proteins together. And then people said, oh no, that’s not going to be enough because now we’ve kind of discovered epigenetics and we realize that the genome is mediated by all kinds of cellular mechanisms that decide what gets expressed and how it gets expressed. And that’s how things go.
The same things happen in the brain sciences where a lot of our assumptions about the way the brain worked and synaptic relationships and midlevel brain organization turned out to be much more simplistic than we thought it was. And we still don’t really understand how the brain works.
And I think what we’re going to find over time is that rather than convergence leading us to some sort of unified idea is that there will constantly be this kind of complexity fallout. As we learn about things more deeply and more deeply, we will discover that in fact, there’s all kinds of peripheral work to be done that we couldn’t have even imagined looking forward. And what that means is you’re not going to have a convergence towards a singularity, but you’re going to have a very complex set of moments where things will change in a lot of different ways. And I think the singularity is actually a very simplistic idea and it misunderstands the complex nature of biological life and physical life. And physics also thought it was going to find its grand unified theory a long time ago. And now we’re just beginning to discover that maybe the universe isn’t exactly organized the way we thought it was with dark matter and String Theory and all of that, which we still don’t really understand the nature of it and we can’t agree about it.
So, I’m not a big singularity fan. I think that Ray Kurzweil’s basic insight that science is increasing in a very rapid rate, more rapidly than people recognize and that there is a convergence of fields. The classic 19th century fields of biology and chemistry, they don’t make any sense anymore. Everything is interdisciplinary. Universities have to change their structure now because we’re still – I spent my life in universities and we’re still functioning on a 19th century model of what a university should be with these departments that have somehow gotten so petrified in their place that we are petrified of changing them.
But I also think that part of the nature of understanding that move towards complexity is recognizing that even as we get more and more sophisticated about it, part of that sophistication will be discovering new complex phenomenon that right now we can’t even imagine exists. And that suggesting that it’s all going to be tied up in a moment where we’re just going to understand everything well enough to transform the world is, I think, a fairly naive and simplistic view of how things are going to change.
Directed / Produced by Jonathan Fowler and Elizabeth Rodd
Bioethicist Paul Root Wolpe argues that the Singularity envisioned by Ray Kurzweil isn't quite right.
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