The key to success? Remind yourself of how little you know.
You don’t want to be so modest that you don’t’ do anything, and just sit there like a puddle, but when you do things, you constantly want to be checking for your own biases.
Brooks’s books include Bobos In Paradise: The New Upper Class and How They Got There (2000), in which Brooks combined the words bohemian and bourgeois to coin the term ‘Bobo’ in order to describe today’s corporate upper class, the descendants of the yuppies. Brooks argues this marriage between bohemian and bourgeois represents a fusion of the liberal idealism of the 1960s with the self-interest of the 1980s.
Four years later Brooks published On Paradise Drive: How We Live Now (And Always Have) in the Future Tense (2004). The thesis of this book connects the material drives of the American middle class with its focus on the future. Brooks’s new book is called The Social Animal: The Hidden Sources of Love, Character, and Achievement, published in March 2011. The Social Animal deals primarily with what drive individuals' behavior and decision making and how we form our emotions and character.
One of the traits that hampers executives and leaders in many realms is over-confidence. And so 95 percent of college professors think they have above-average teaching skills. And Time magazine asked Americans, are you in the top one percent of earners? And 19 percent of Americans believe they are in the top one percent of earners. And yet, some people have the ability to look inside themselves and say, "Okay, I’m over-confident. Actually let me stop. I missed something that will be germane."
And so two researchers gave tests to business executives and tests about their own industries. And then they asked them, "How confident are you that the answers to these tests about your own industries are correct?" And people in the advertising industry were convinced they got 80 percent of the answers right on these tests. In fact, they got 60 percent wrong. The most over-confident industry was the computer industry. And so people in the computer business thought they got 95 percent of the answers on the test correct. In fact, they got 80 percent of them wrong.
And so we all have this tremendous bias to be over-confident, over-value our abilities to pick out evidence that confirms what we already believe. And so a wise executive says, “Hey, I’ve got an over-confidence bias. I need to build modesty bootstraps for myself.” Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner in his investment business, says, "Okay, here’s what I’m going to do to control my over-confidence. Here’s what I’m going to do to bias myself in the opposite direction."
Peter Drucker, the great management guru had a modesty step. He said, "When you make a decision, write it on a piece of paper, seal it in an envelop for nine months, open it after nine months, and you’ll see that a third of your decisions were right, a third were wrong, and a third somewhere in between. But in most cases your reasoning will be completely irrelevant. And if you do that, you’re going to remind yourself how little you know and you’ll build modesty bootstraps." So you don’t want to be so modest that you don’t’ do anything, and just sit there like a puddle, but when you do things, you constantly want to be checking for your own biases.
NASA astronomer Michelle Thaller is coming back to Big Think to answer YOUR questions! Here's all you need to know to submit your science-related inquiries.
Big Think's amazing audience has responded so well to our videos from NASA astronomer and Assistant Director for Science Communication Michelle Thaller that we couldn't wait to bring her back for more!
And this time, she's ready to tackle any questions you're willing to throw at her, like, "How big is the Universe?", "Am I really made of stars?" or, "How long until Elon Musk starts a colony on Mars?"
All you have to do is submit your questions to the form below, and we'll use them for an upcoming Q+A session with Michelle. You know what to do, Big Thinkers!
Build up, tear down—new technology stirs up a cycle of progress and cynicism we've seen all throughout history.
- "Every time that there's a new technology, particularly around media, there's a set of outcries around how that media is corrupting culture or how it's destroying certain aspects of our life," says entrepreneur and author Elad Gil.
- In some cases there are real concerns, but taking a historical view can quell unnecessary panic. Progress and cynicism work in a cyclical fashion. New tech is unveiled, the media builds it up, then the media tears it down in a wave of backlash.
- Today we worry about kids and smartphones; 80 years ago we worried about kids and the radio; same cynicism, different day.
- Technology lifts the lid on human potential and quality of life, says Gil. We should be duly cautious, but optimism is more valuable (and arguably more rational) than pessimism.
Calling all big thinkers!
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