Warning: It is just my humble educated guess and this article only for the highly intelligent people. So, reference is not needed.
When Prof. Paul Krugman speaks, every body listens, but no action! Recession!
When George Soros Speaks, you do not need to listen but have to take action. If not, thank you very much!
When Keynes Karl speaks, you’d better listened and took action. If not, the speculator will thank you very much.
Economics is not pure science, free-market is a humble place! if Alan Greenspan would listen to Paul Kurgan’s early warning on foreclosure and exotic derivatives. In terms of severity , we might not have this kind of recession.
If Mr. George W. Bush, Mr. Dick Cheney and Mr. Rumsfeld can learn something from George Soros, we might not lost eight yrs and would not pay 3 trillions dollars on wars! Sir! Economy can be as mighty as the super military power. SEE! Soros how he robbed the Asian countries in 1997 and 1998 in the name of democracy (same as you Sir Bush!) and open society! Some Indonesian intellectualists may still feel guilty even now for their corny capitalism and thanks to Soros taught them a lesson! That is a great art of Economics! Sir!
Now come the main feature- Bank stress testing! Vow! What a God-sent chance! In the coming two weeks, if there is no short selling of US Banks. Just lucky!
When the market is in fear, unclear and investors in dark. There is chance for short sell. Especially, the 9-class Bank analyst Mr. Malo X (I made up the name )said the Banks need 4 Trillion to cleanse the debt. IMF said needs 7 T!
Another self-claimed bank analyst suggests, based on his research the CCC graded Citi and Bank of America would need more capital. Some suggest WellS Fargo should be. The other makes an educated guess no! It should be the BBB rating Morgan Stanley! What a Chaotic! Chaos breeds chance for short selling.
Now comes to the reality, though there is no exact AAA, AAB, BBB, CCC such rating of the post-stress-testing Banks. In psychology perception and confidence, there are weak banks like , US Bancorp, GMAC , American Express, Citi or Bank of America (Sorry Mr. Lewis I place yours as the same category as Citi!). And of-course there are stronger Banks like Wells Fargo, BB & T Corporation and the strongest AAA, Goldman Sachs and JPM. To a hedgy fund manager with only a normal IQ and modest training, he knows how to choose the sacrificed lambs first!
The worst, Uncle Sam 100% guarantees any of the 19 post-stress-tested-bank will not be failed and fall! That means there is free ATM for the Hedge fund wolfs!
As my previous writing in Bigthink pointed out, for international standard, our 19 post-stress-tested banks are sound of Tier 1 capital ratio and TCE ratio (tangible common equity) standard! However, it does not mean that the weak banks would not be taken down by short selling in this kind of recession! It is easy to find out if you could set up a short selling computer model. It is easy to tell which weak banks will be the first targets for short selling! After the weakest banks fall, than the BBB banks , the last would be AAA Banks! The whole US banking system would be collapsed! If this happens, big bank nationalization will become meaningless. Mr. Barney Frank and Mr. Geithner
Action! I would like to see the SEC or the Congress to come up a bill to ban the short selling of any US bank shares for two years (Why two years? Don’t ask!)
I hope I will be wrong and Adam Smith was right this time-there is moral businessman or businesswoman, never a George Soros or a hybrid “Solos” from China, Britain, or Russia to short sell our Banks!
God bless America!