One widely useful mental habit that we teach in our class at the Center for Applied Rationality is called reference class forecasting, and it's for the most part, in the literature, been tested with reference to something called the planning fallacy, which is nearly universal. When we're ...
Why do we systematically underestimate the amount of time or money we are going to spend on a given project?
There’s a danger to learning about cognitive biases and logical fallacies and so on which is that you end up with this tool kit of ways to reject other people’s arguments.
Don’t stop at the first explanation that occurs to you, ask your inner rivals what competing explanations they can come up with.
You wouldn’t expect the human brain to be a perfect reasoner or a perfect decision maker. You would expect it to be good enough most of the time. And that’s what we are.