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Election Notes: What Mitt's Victory Means

February 2, 2012, 12:05 PM
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Mitt Romney looks more and more like the Republican nominee after soundly defeating the Republican field in the Florida Primary. Romney managed to get more votes than Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combined, and has moved back into the lead in national polling. The futures traders at Intrade now give Romney a nearly 89% chance of winning the nomination. They have been bullish on Romney’s chances throughout the primaries, but that’s still up four points since last week.

Nevertheless it’s still too early to say Romney has the nomination wrapped up. After all, an 89% chance he will win is still an 11% chance that he won’t. As Kris Broughton says, Romney’s lead in the delegate count is small and most of the country has yet to vote. The attacks on Romney have taken a toll, and his net favorable rating is falling sharply. Since many of the Super Tuesday states should be favorable ground for Gingrich and Santorum, we can expect the race to continue into March at least.

Political Futures Markets

Chance President Obama will win reelection: 55.3% (Intrade)

Chance Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination: 88.7% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will win control of the Senate: 74.5% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will maintain control of the House: 69.1% (Intrade)

Polls

President Obama’s approval rating: 46.1% (Pollster)

Mitt Romney’s favorable rating: 32.8% (Pollster)

Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot: 2.5% (Real Clear Politics)

Comments

I stand by my early assessment: when I look at the economy, I think Obama can’t win, but when I look at the Republicans, I think he can’t lose. The economy is starting to get better; the Republicans aren’t.”—Paul Begala

UP NEXT: the Nevada Caucus on Saturday, February 4

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

 

Election Notes: What Mitt's...

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