What's the Big Idea?
We live in an amazingly uncertain world. And uncertainty is especially problematic because it keeps you frozen still in a fast-paced world. Moreover, any assessment based on uncertainty involves a large amount of risk. Therefore, in an uncertain world, the value of certainty is paramount. Daniel Burrus addresses this in his book Flash Foresight, and in the video below.
Watch the video here:
What's the Significance?
As Burrus points out, there is a science of cycles that allow you to accurately anticipate the future. In fact, there are over 300 known cycles - business cycles, biological cycles, weather cycles. Economists have been trained to follow cycles. Warren Buffett is very rich because he can read cycles better than anyone else.
According to Burrus, a different kind of change to cyclical change is called linear change. These are developments that are certain to carry on into the future. When countries become modernized, for instance, there's no going back.
We also know for certain that we will have faster processing chips in the future, and the rate of growth is exponential. That means if you want to measure the progress of technology, you can follow a predicable curve, based on Moore's Law.
Burrus says that if you are able to add up all of the things you are certain about, you will be able to create an amazing array of opportunities. To do this, he recommends spending an hour every week "unplugging from the present." The present, as Burrus points out, is "more related to your past than your future." The practice of routinely looking ahead will help make the future become visible, and produce certainty.
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