Big Think

Question:  What would happen if Islamist radicals came to power in Pakistan?

Paul Cruickshank: Easy answer.  There’s zero percent chance of the Pakistani elections in February returning Islamic radicals to power.  The Coalition of Islamic Parties, the MMA in Pakistan, have been polling in the low single figures in recent months.  They are not a popular constituency within Pakistan.  They did gain control in the last elections of the Northwest frontier province.  Every indication is they’re gonna lose control of that province.  The violence that you’ve seen in the tribal areas of Pakistan; the violence in the Northwest frontier province; the violence which is really common to Pakistani proper has turned a lot of Pakistanis against the Islamist parties there.  And there is a sort of quiet, secular majority in Pakistan.  Benazir Bhutto herself was polling very highly in Pakistan before her death – this woman, secular figure; liberal figure if you like.  And she was polling highly, and that’s clearly a sign of the fact that Pakistanis have no track for the hard core Islamist jihadists which are operating in the western parts of the country.  So there’s a zero chance that Pakistan will have a sort of theocratic government if free elections take place.  What Israeli fueled a lot of the Islamic anger, if you like, in recent months has been the appearance of dictatorship; the emergency rule declared by Musharraf which is the last chapter in that.  That has of course now elapsed, but he is still operating in a very authoritarian fashion.  That’s given Al Qaeda a perfect recruiting tool because they’re able to cast President Musharraf as undemocratic stooge of the United States who hasn’t got the support of the Pakistani people; and is just doing the bidding of the United States in its war on terror.  If you have a popularly elected government, not only are you gonna have some sort of mandate to go after the extremists because of the opinion of most of the secular majority of Pakistan; but it will be impossible or much more difficult for the radicals to cast them as an undemocratic U.S. stooge.

Recorded on 1/13/08