AQAP and the al-Awaliq Tribe

Early yesterday morning I woke up, fired up the computer, and began skimming through the news from Yemen. One of the first articles that caught my attention was this piece from News Yemen, explaining that AQAP had sent a letter to the al-Awaliq tribe imploring them not to cooperate with the Yemeni government against them.

Interesting, but I'm a guy who likes more than a couple of quotes, so I opened up another window and got on to some of the jihadi forums where AQAP usually posts its statements. But, and here is where it gets interesting, there was no statement. I skimmed down the page. Nothing. A bit frustrated I logged on to another forum. Same story.

I went back to the News Yemen article and found the problem. The entire story was based on a SITE Intelligence Group report. Now, I don't know a lot about SITE and I don't use it - I'm a poor struggling student after all - but I do know a number of journalists who rely on the organization for translations of al-Qaeda statements. With that in mind, I spent a bit more time surfing through the forums but still came up with nothing.

This morning, the New York Times, used the same SITE report in this article. So back to the forums and again nothing.

Here is what I think happened. SITE found a thread in one of the forums from somebody (or somebodies) identifying themselves as members of AQAP and the al-Awaliq tribe, and thought it looked interesting and translated the message. The only problem is that it wasn't an AQAP statement.

This, I think, is an incredibly important point. Right up there with making sure the US and Yemeni government identify exactly who is and who is not a member of AQAP.

There are a lot of people in Yemen that look (big bushy beards) like al-Qaeda and sound (screeching rhetoric about shariah law) like al-Qaeda, but aren't actually members of al-Qaeda (that is individuals that have sworn an oath of allegiance to Nasir al-Wihayshi). This is important because if the US and Yemeni government start fighting everyone who looks like they might be a member of AQAP then they are fighting a war they can't win. Simply put, there would be too many people. They have to limit the fighting only to those who are sworn members of the organization. That problem is bad enough without going out and creating new, shooting enemies where none existed.

AQAP is incredibly protective of its brand, a point they have made over and over. This is how someone like Qasim al-Raymi gets to go on camera and say "trust us" for the news about AQAP. This is how they get away with constantly calling the Yemeni government out on its "lies" and shadings of the truth. Precisely because AQAP is so careful with the statements it releases.

The only AQAP statements are those released through al-Malahim. This was not. Now, I'm not faulting SITE for translating the forum post, as far as I could tell on their website (based on my non-subscriber status), SITE identified the forum post along the lines of how the author of the post described himself. But I think they owe their subscribers (many of whom don't speak Arabic and/or don't understand the forums) more detailed information about this post.

That is, specifically pointing out that it is not an official AQAP statement and that it could have been from anyone. Anyone with a computer and knowledge of Arabic could have written it - it is like any internet chatroom - the attractive woman you think you are speaking with could easily be a 40-year-old unemployed Wall Street guy.

Now, do I think AQAP would prefer that the al-Awaliq tribe not work with the government? Yes, certainly a statement like this would be in keeping with what AQAP has said in the past. But this wasn't an AQAP statement and it is best if we don't go treating it like one. There is enough confusion about the situation in Yemen, without people who are supposed to be on the side of the good guys muddying the waters further.

I was going to post a bit on the al-Awaliq tribe, the new Awakening movement in Shawa, and Anwar al-Awlaki, but this post has went on too long, so I'll save those thoughts for a bit later.

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Politics & Current Affairs

Political division is nothing new. Throughout American history there have been numerous flare ups in which the political arena was more than just tense but incideniary. In a letter addressed to William Hamilton in 1800, Thomas Jefferson once lamented about how an emotional fervor had swept over the populace in regards to a certain political issue at the time. It disturbed him greatly to see how these political issues seemed to seep into every area of life and even affect people's interpersonal relationships. At one point in the letter he states:

"I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend."

Today, we Americans find ourselves in a similar situation, with our political environment even more splintered due to a number of factors. The advent of mass digital media, siloed identity-driven political groups, and a societal lack of understanding of basic discursive fundamentals all contribute to the problem.

Civil discourse has fallen to an all time low.

The question that the American populace needs to ask itself now is: how do we fix it?

Discursive fundamentals need to be taught to preserve free expression

In a 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey by Cato, it was found that 71% of Americans believe that political correctness had silenced important discussions necessary to our society. Many have pointed to draconian university policies regarding political correctness as a contributing factor to this phenomenon.

It's a great irony that, colleges, once true bastions of free-speech, counterculture and progressiveness, have now devolved into reactionary tribal politics.

Many years ago, one could count on the fact that universities would be the first places where you could espouse and debate any controversial idea without consequence. The decline of staple subjects that deal with the wisdom of the ancients, historical reference points, and civic discourse could be to blame for this exaggerated partisanship boiling on campuses.

Young people seeking an education are given a disservice when fed biased ideology, even if such ideology is presented with the best of intentions. Politics are but one small sliver for society and the human condition at large. Universities would do well to instead teach the principles of healthy discourse and engagement across the ideological spectrum.

The fundamentals of logic, debate and the rich artistic heritage of western civilization need to be the central focus of an education. They help to create a well-rounded citizen that can deal with controversial political issues.

It has been found that in the abstract, college students generally support and endorse the first amendment, but there's a catch when it comes to actually practicing it. This was explored in a Gallup survey titled: Free Expression on Campus: What college students think about First amendment issues.

In their findings the authors state:

"The vast majority say free speech is important to democracy and favor an open learning environment that promotes the airing of a wide variety of ideas. However, the actions of some students in recent years — from milder actions such as claiming to be threatened by messages written in chalk promoting Trump's candidacy to the most extreme acts of engaging in violence to stop attempted speeches — raise issues of just how committed college students are to
upholding First Amendment ideals.

Most college students do not condone more aggressive actions to squelch speech, like violence and shouting down speakers, although there are some who do. However, students do support many policies or actions that place limits on speech, including free speech zones, speech codes and campus prohibitions on hate speech, suggesting that their commitment to free speech has limits. As one example, barely a majority think handing out literature on controversial issues is "always acceptable."

With this in mind, the problems seen on college campuses are also being seen on a whole through other pockets of society and regular everyday civic discourse. Look no further than the dreaded and cliche prospect of political discussion at Thanksgiving dinner.

Talking politics at Thanksgiving dinner

As a result of this increased tribalization of views, it's becoming increasingly more difficult to engage in polite conversation with people possessing opposing viewpoints. The authors of a recent Hidden Tribes study broke down the political "tribes" in which many find themselves in:

  • Progressive Activists: younger, highly engaged, secular, cosmopolitan, angry.
  • Traditional Liberals: older, retired, open to compromise, rational, cautious.
  • Passive Liberals: unhappy, insecure, distrustful, disillusioned.
  • Politically Disengaged: young, low income, distrustful, detached, patriotic, conspiratorial
  • Moderates: engaged, civic-minded, middle-of-the-road, pessimistic, Protestant.
  • Traditional Conservatives: religious, middle class, patriotic, moralistic.
  • Devoted Conservatives: white, retired, highly engaged, uncompromising,

Understanding these different viewpoints and the hidden tribes we may belong to will be essential in having conversations with those we disagree with. This might just come to a head when it's Thanksgiving and you have a mix of many different personalities, ages, and viewpoints.

It's interesting to note the authors found that:

"Tribe membership shows strong reliability in predicting views across different political topics."

You'll find that depending on what group you identify with, that nearly 100 percent of the time you'll believe in the same way the rest of your group constituents do.

Here are some statistics on differing viewpoints according to political party:

  • 51% of staunch liberals say it's "morally acceptable" to punch Nazis.
  • 53% of Republicans favor stripping U.S. citizenship from people who burn the American flag.
  • 51% of Democrats support a law that requires Americans use transgender people's preferred gender pronouns.
  • 65% of Republicans say NFL players should be fired if they refuse to stand for the anthem.
  • 58% of Democrats say employers should punish employees for offensive Facebook posts.
  • 47% of Republicans favor bans on building new mosques.

Understanding the fact that tribal membership indicates what you believe, can help you return to the fundamentals for proper political engagement

Here are some guidelines for civic discourse that might come in handy:

  • Avoid logical fallacies. Essentially at the core, a logical fallacy is anything that detracts from the debate and seeks to attack the person rather than the idea and stray from the topic at hand.
  • Practice inclusion and listen to who you're speaking to.
  • Have the idea that there is nothing out of bounds for inquiry or conversation once you get down to an even stronger or new perspective of whatever you were discussing.
  • Keep in mind the maxim of : Do not listen with the intent to reply. But with the intent to understand.
  • We're not trying to proselytize nor shout others down with our rhetoric, but come to understand one another again.
  • If we're tied too closely to some in-group we no longer become an individual but a clone of someone else's ideology.

Civic discourse in the divisive age

Debate and civic discourse is inherently messy. Add into the mix an ignorance of history, rabid politicization and debased political discourse, you can see that it will be very difficult in mending this discursive staple of a functional civilization.

There is still hope that this great divide can be mended, because it has to be. The Hidden Tribes authors at one point state:

"In the era of social media and partisan news outlets, America's differences have become
dangerously tribal, fueled by a culture of outrage and taking offense. For the combatants,
the other side can no longer be tolerated, and no price is too high to defeat them.
These tensions are poisoning personal relationships, consuming our politics and
putting our democracy in peril.

Once a country has become tribalized, debates about contested issues from
immigration and trade to economic management, climate change and national security,
become shaped by larger tribal identities. Policy debate gives way to tribal conflicts.
Polarization and tribalism are self-reinforcing and will likely continue to accelerate.
The work of rebuilding our fragmented society needs to start now. It extends from
re-connecting people across the lines of division in local communities all the way to
building a renewed sense of national identity: a bigger story of us."

We need to start teaching people how to approach subjects from less of an emotional or baseless educational bias or identity, especially in the event that the subject matter could be construed to be controversial or uncomfortable.

This will be the beginning of a new era of understanding, inclusion and the defeat of regressive philosophies that threaten the core of our nation and civilization.