Poker rule #1: your gut is not as reliable as you think
You really do have to know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em, and most of the time trusting your gut is a copout, says poker champion Liv Boeree.
Olivia "Liv" Boeree is a poker player, TV presenter and model from England who won the 2010 European Poker Tour in Sanremo. Born in Kent, Boeree studied at Ashford School before going on to earn a First Class Honours degree in Physics with Astrophysics at the University of Manchester. She was the #1 ranked female player on the Global Poker Index as of November 2015, and #6 on the female all-time live poker winnings list.
Boeree was a keen guitar player in her early twenties, specializing in the heavy metal genre. In University she played lead guitar in the band Dissonance, and in 2006 she briefly featured as lead guitarist for rock/goth band Nemhain before starting her career in poker.
Boeree also modeled in her early twenties for rock and alternative lifestyle features.
Boeree was introduced to the poker industry when she was selected as one of five contestants for the reality TV show Ultimatepoker.com Showdown, which aired on Five in Autumn 2005.
After the show, Boeree began playing poker regularly at the Gutshot Club in London, and from there became an on-screen reporter for Gutshot TV at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas. Soon after she became the host of Challenge TV's on-line coverage of the European Poker Tour, also appearing as a reporter for the World Series of Poker Europe on WorldSeriesofPoker.com.
On 21 April 2010, Boeree won the European Poker Tour main event in San Remo, at the time the largest ever poker tournament held on European soil. Boeree won €1,250,000 and thereby became the third woman ever to win an EPT title.
She has shown continuous success on the EPT circuit with twelve Main Event cashes to date. Other notable results include a 2nd place in the 2014 UKIPT Edinburgh Main Event a 3rd place in the EPT Barcelona High Roller event for €391,000 in August 2015.
Boeree has been a member of Team PokerStars Pro since September 2010. Her total live tournament winnings exceed $3,000,000.
In February 2016 she was announced as the Team Manager of the Global Poker League team "The London Royals".
Liv Boeree: So I guess the thing you have to think about in any given poker situation is that you're dealing with a lot of uncertainty, and it's all about how to make the best decision in any given moment. So the first rule of thumb is how to extract the most money or chips from your opponent when you have a strong hand, and how to lose the minimum when you have a weak hand. And you're never going to be a hundred percent certain where you are: Are you beating them or do you have a worse hand? So you have to sort of construct a strategy that is mathematically optimal in each situation.
Well, I guess people tend to think of intuition as their gut instinct and my rule of thumb in poker is to only fall on my gut instinct if my sort of logical, my slow brain, the system two as it's sometimes called, has not come to any conclusive answer. A lot of people are tempted to go, “This is too tricky, I don't know!” and then go, “Yeah, well, my gut instinct says this; I'm going to go with that.” But the best thing to do is to work with both, your sort of slow brain and that gut.
Say you were playing against your opponent and you've noticed that actually they’re someone who's very solid, they never seem to bluff, and you might have a hand that you would normally call with (say 90 percent of the time), but you know this guy, he's just never bluffing, never doing it. Well, actually this might be one of those rare situations where you do throw your hand in the muck, where you have a very strong feeling that you're just not calling; even though mathematically it says it should call, you shouldn't do it.
I guess the art part of poker is when you have these flashes of inspiration where you need to deviate from the math, and the science is knowing whether that deviation is the right thing to do at the time.
When it comes to your intuition as a poker player I would say do use it from time to time, but it should not be your starting point. You, as a rule of thumb, should always go for the slow “system two” analysis, see what answer that comes up with, and then also to check in with your gut. Say you're in a really big hand, and your opponent has bet, often I'll have an instinctive response; I'll be like, “Oh that's a bluff,” or “they have a really strong hand,” and I'll make a note of it, I won't just go with that answer.
I'll go, “Okay now let's work through the mathematics, let's look sort of through all the other bits of information: what have they done on other cards?” and so on, and then see if those two answers match up.”
Now, if they both match up, great, I've got an easy decision, but if one is giving a conflicting answer to the other, then usually you tend to rely on the sort of the mathematic/logic part. However, it's really, really close with the mathematics, then I'll fall back on that gut instinct. But as a rule of thumb your gut is not as reliable as you think.
You often see these like memes on the Internet, which is just like, “Always go with your gut! Trust your instincts!” and so on. And I personally think that's a copout. I think that's often the lazy way out for when we are faced with a really tough decision in life, of just going, “well… answer X.”
Our brains they love to simplify things, to do things in black-and-white, but we live in a very complex world, and that's not always the best route to take. So in a nutshell, your gut instincts can be useful, but as a last resort. We've evolved of these amazing brains for a reason, so we should be using them.
Want to win at poker? First, understand how your mind works. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Nobel-Prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman explains the mind’s two thinking systems: System 1 which "is the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach," and System 2 which is "the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates." Champion poker player Liv Boeree explains that if you want to rake in the chips, you’ll need to harness both these systems. The game requires players to make decisions in circumstances of great uncertainty, so learn to balance your mathematical reasoning with your gut instincts—however, when those two systems give you strongly conflicting messages, Boeree says the win is usually based in logic, not intuition. Your gut is valuable, and can often be the key to reading a tell or bluff, but it "isn’t as reliable as you think." Find out more at www.livboeree.com.
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Minimoons<p>Scientists have confirmed just two prior minimoons. One was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_RH120" target="_blank">2006 RH120</a>, which orbited us from September 2006 to June 2007. The other was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_CD3" target="_blank">2020 CD3</a>, which got stuck in the 2015–2016 timeframe, and is believed to gotten away in May 2020.</p><p>2020 SO, the new kid on the block, is expected to arrive in October 2020 and pop out of orbit in May 2021.</p><div id="37962" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f4c0fc8a2cba6536ea4cd960ebed3e6e"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1307729521869611008" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Asteroid 2020 SO may get captured by Earth from Oct 2020 - May 2021. Current nominal trajectory shows shows capture… https://t.co/F5utxRvN6Z</div> — Tony Dunn (@Tony Dunn)<a href="https://twitter.com/tony873004/statuses/1307729521869611008">1600621989.0</a></blockquote></div>
Identifying 2020 SO<p>The first clue 2020 SO isn't your ordinary asteroid is its exceptionally low velocity. It's traveling much more slowly that a typical asteroid — their <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/exploration/training/illustrations/craterMechanics/" target="_blank">average rate of travel</a> <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/exploration/training/illustrations/craterMechanics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a>is 18 kilometers (58,000 feet) per second. Even <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_rock" target="_blank">moon rocks</a> sent careening into Earth orbit by impacts on the lunar surface outpace pokey 2020 SO.</p><p>For another thing, 2020 SO has an orbital path very similar to Earth's, lasting about one Earth year. It's also just slightly less circular than our own orbit, from which it's barely tilted off-axis.</p><p>So, what is it? <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/" target="_blank">NASA estimates</a> that the object has dimensions very reminiscent of a discarded Centaur rocket stage from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveyor_2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Surveyor 2 mission</a> that landed an unmanned craft on the moon. Back in the day, rocket stages were jettisoned as craft were aimed toward their desired position. This stuff, if released high enough, remains in space. It appears that this Centaur rocket, launched in September 1966, is now making its way back homeward, at least for a little bit.</p><p>When 2020 SO arrives at its closest point in December, the rocket is expected to be about 50,000 kilometers from Earth. Its next closest approach is much further: 220,000 kilometers, in February 2010.</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQzMDk3NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyODg1MTQ1MX0.HGknDwqp0GmeuczKY_AS7vrPG7KMFUc_XO95tNoI2xo/img.jpg?width=980" id="e5cda" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="85eb1f790d8c3ee5b261f7ba13eaa5e1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="Centaur rocket stage" />
Centaur rocket stage
What we may be able to learn<p>Earthly space programs being as young as they are, scientists would love to know what's happened to our rocket during a half century in space.</p><p>While 2020 SO won't get close enough to drop into our atmosphere, its slow progress has scientists hopeful that they'll still get some kind of a decent look at it.</p><p>Spectroscopy may be able to reveal what the rocket's surface is like now — has any of its paint survived, for example? Of course, being out in space, it's likely to have been hit by lots of dust and micrometeorites, so the current state of its surfaces is also of interest. Experts are curious to know how reflective the rocket is at this point, valuable information that can help planners of future long-term missions anticipate how well a craft out in space for extended periods will remain able to reflect sunlight.</p>
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Credit: logika600 / Shutterstock<p>Remaining healthy requires regular screenings. Here again we see a disassociation between risk reduction and proactivity. Seventy-seven percent of respondents don't talk to their doctors about lifestyle habits that support brain health; 51 percent have never been screened for depression; 44 percent have never had a neurological exam; and 32 percent have never been screened for hearing problems. </p><p>Common early warning signs of dementia, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/americans-worry-alzheimers-disease-survey-140644803.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">according to</a> Dr. Jason Karlawish, co-director of the Penn Memory Center, include repetitive questions and stories, difficulties with complex daily tasks, and trouble with orientation. </p><p>In terms of intervention, <a href="https://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/does-lack-of-exercise-lead-to-dementia" target="_self">exercise</a>, <a href="https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/obesity-dementia" target="_self">diet</a>, building a <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/brain-reserve" target="_self">brain reserve</a>, and challenging your brain (such as learning a new language or musical instrument) are all proven methods for staving off the ravages of Alzheimer's. Oxytocin has also <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/alzheimers-oxytocin" target="_self">showed promise</a> in brain-addled mice, while researchers found positive results for a <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/intermittent-fasting" target="_self">group of intermittent fasters</a> in promoting neurogenesis. </p><p>Epidemiologist Bryan James says that dementia is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2013/04/15/176920391/how-exercise-and-other-activities-beat-back-dementia" target="_blank">not an inevitable result</a> of aging. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"It's simply not pre-destined for all human beings. Lots of people live into their 90s and even 100s with no symptoms of dementia." </p><p>Professor of neurology at Boston University School of Medicine, Andrew Budson, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/americans-worry-alzheimers-disease-survey-140644803.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">recommends</a> aerobic exercise and the Mediterranean diet. As has long been known, whole grains, fruits and vegetables, fish and shellfish, and healthy fasts like nuts and olive oil seem to have brain-boosting properties. </p><p>To learn more, take the <a href="https://www.mdvip.com/brain-health-iq-quiz" target="_blank">Brain Health IQ quiz</a>.</p><p><span></span>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://derekberes.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Substack</a>. His next book is</em> "<em>Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy."</em></p>