'Resulting': Don’t mistake a bad outcome for a bad decision
ANNIE DUKE: What 'resulting' is using the outcome quality as a perfect signal for deriving decision quality. So, let me give you an example. It's 2015; people will remember the Super Bowl the Seahawks against the Patriots and the Seahawks are on the one-yard line, there's 26 seconds left, it's the second down and they have one timeout. And I think that people will remember that - and they're down by four by the way - people will remember that famously Pete Carroll called a pass play. Russell Wilson passed the ball. It was intercepted. And the next day the headlines were let's just say pretty bad for Pete Carroll. Worst play in Super Bowl history; Pete Carroll I think with some of them called him an idiot, but headline after headline after headline after headline was about how completely ridiculous this call was.
Now, there were a couple of outlying voices, one of the main ones was a guy named Benjamin Morris over at FiveThirtyEight and he went through some of the analytics on the play and actually had very, very good arguments for why that was at worst reasonably thought through and possibly quite a brilliant play if you were just thinking statistically. It's easy to see what's happening here because all you have to do is the thought experiment. And he thought experiment is this: Pete Carroll calls to pass; Russell Wilson throws it is; and it's caught in the end zone for a touchdown. And just take a minute and think about what those headlines would have been the next day. Instead of worst play in Super Bowl history they would've been Carol outsmarts Belichick, it would've been about his creativity this is the kind of thinking that got him to the Super Bowl in the first place. This is why he's the best coach in the NFL and deserves that ring. Now, obviously whether the ball is caught or dropped does not actually change whether the decision was a good one, but we act like it does and that's what 'resulting' is.
- Bad outcomes get criticized as evidence of bad decisions, but that's not necessarily so.
- Here, poker pro Annie Duke describes a simple thought experiment that separates decisions from outcomes.
- It is quite possible to make a very good decision that, due to external factors, results in a bad outcome
Decide to Play Great Poker: A Strategy Guide to No-Limit Texas Hold '’Em
The pandemic reminds us that our higher education system, with all its flaws, remains a key part of our strategic reserve.
- America's higher education system is under great scrutiny as it adapts to a remote-learning world. These criticisms will only make higher ed more innovative.
- While there are flaws in the system and great challenges ahead, higher education has adapted quickly to allow students to continue learning. John Katzman, CEO of online learning organization Noodle Partners, believes this is cause for optimism not negativity.
- Universities are pillars of scientific research on the COVID-19 frontlines, they bring facts in times of uncertainty and fake news, and, in a bad economy, education is a personal floatation device.
A debate is raging inside and outside of churches.
- Over 1,200 pastors in California claim they're opening their churches this week against state orders.
- While church leaders demand independence from governmental oversight, 9,000 Catholic churches have received small business loans.
- A number of re-opened churches shut back down after members and clergy became infected with the novel coronavirus.
An MIT system uses wireless signals to measure in-home appliance usage to better understand health tendencies.
For many of us, our microwaves and dishwashers aren't the first thing that come to mind when trying to glean health information, beyond that we should (maybe) lay off the Hot Pockets and empty the dishes in a timely way.
An innovation may lead to lifelike evolving machines.
- Scientists at Cornell University devise a material with 3 key traits of life.
- The goal for the researchers is not to create life but lifelike machines.
- The researchers were able to program metabolism into the material's DNA.
Online dating has evolved, but at what cost?
- Some dating apps allow individuals to interact and form romantic/sexual connections before meeting face to face with the ability to "swipe" on the screen to either accept or reject another user's profile. Popular swipe-based apps include Tinder, Bumble, and OkCupid.
- Research by Western Sydney University and the University of Sydney has linked the experience of swipe-based dating apps to higher rates of psychological distress and/or depression.
- Not all time spent on these apps is damaging, however. Up to 40 percent of current users say they previously entered a serious relationship with someone they met through one of these apps.