from the world's big
Sink or swim: How to survive waves of change in a fast-paced industry
Here's how to best position yourself for taking advantage of the unexpected.
RITA GUNTHER MCGRATH: A strategic inflection point, as I define it, is something in the external environment that changes the assumptions upon which a business is based. It's often technology but it doesn't have to be. It could be a change in social norms. It could be a change in a company's reputation. But the reason it's so important to see these things is that we all develop a view of the world and our view of the world is really based on the assumptions that may have been true at one point. But those assumptions guide what we think is going to drive outcomes in our business. When something happens that changes those assumptions all of a sudden it's as though our radar was off, you know. We don't really see what's going on in truth. And the longer an inflection point goes the more wide the gap is between our current understanding of what's happening and what's actually happening.
Now the reason for spotting them early is, firstly, obviously if they're going to change your assumptions you don't want to let that gap persist for too long. But secondly, if you get it right it can take your business to new heights. If you get it wrong it can be very destabilizing. And we've seen so many examples of companies that everybody thought were at the top of their game and within a couple of short years were just out of business or irrelevant or had to dramatically change what they were doing. Blackberry comes to mind in the handset business. They're still there. I mean they're still somewhat relevant but as the driving force in that sector they are no longer really in charge of their own fate. And that's what happens when you get an inflection point wrong.
You can make super smart, very intelligent decisions and still have a bad outcome. You can make horrific, idiotic, stupid decisions and still have a good outcome because that's how unpredictable things are. So I think there is a big distinction between forecasting and what I'm talking about here which is picking up weak signals, opening your mind to different possibilities and having the foresight to say, hey, maybe that's worth putting a small bet or a small investment or maybe it's worth going to that meeting or doing that experiment. I think it's more positioning yourself to be better able to take advantage of the unexpected than it is predicting what's going to happen. I think a lot of people who've made predictions have come to regret that because it's so uncertain. How do you absolutely know for sure what's going to happen?
So a lot of really interesting competitive opportunities are opened up when someone sees a change in the environment and moves to capitalize on it as an opportunity. A great one that is by now pretty well known but I think still illustrates the point nicely is the transition from movies that were sold on cassette tapes to movies that were able to be sold on DVDs. And if you think about it a cassette tape—now you're going to have to go back in history but a cassette tape movie could cost $50 or $60. We've forgotten that by now. We're so used to very inexpensive digital offerings we fail to remember that at the time that Blockbuster, for example, got going their selling point was that for much less than that you could rent the movie for a night or two and enjoy watching it and then return it and then they would re-rent it to other people. And the catch phrase at the time was 'Be kind, rewind.' —rewinding these cassette tapes.
So the beginning of the inflection point that eventually gave rise to Netflix was two things. The first was a technological shift which allowed an entire movie to be published on a DVD. And a DVD was a completely different form factor. It was light, it could fit in an envelope. And even though it was still pretty expensive the costs were already starting to come down relative to what it took to create a product. The second thing that led to Netflix being an inflection point is actually an evolution of digital business models. So the content creation people always had a very rigid system for say movies where the movie was first shown in theaters where people had the highest willingness to pay. Then it kind of went the rental route. Then it kind of went into movies you could have of your own. Then it was residuals. And in the early stages, production companies really didn't have a lot of ways of making money off residuals. Netflix said, hey, you sell us the rights to your residuals and we will pay you. And it became an addictive additional revenue stream for a lot of the content producers.
So that gave Netflix the ability to have all this content, some of which was pretty popular, some of which was pretty niche oriented, to really fuel the beginning of their subscription model. Now as we have seen plenty of people now observing the production companies have regretted that for a long time. And what they're now doing is they're going into competition with Netflix developing their own streaming services. So I think we're yet again seeing this inflection point coming around to possibly undermine Netflix's model where Netflix is now in the business of having to create hugely expensive content in order to keep people on their service, to keep people subscribing.
- Why are companies like Apple on top of the world while others like Blackberry have been relegated to a minor market share? Why is Netflix king and Blockbuster extinct? Netflix spotted a strategic inflection point and capitalized on it, says Rita Gunther McGrath.
- A strategic inflection point is a shift in the external environment that changes the assumptions upon which a business is based—it could be technology, social norms, or a company's reputation.
- People and organizations who see inflection points early and respond to them with a small investment or an experiment have an advantage. They will swim while their competitors may sink.
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Gender and sexual minority populations are experiencing rising anxiety and depression rates during the pandemic.
- Anxiety and depression rates are spiking in the LGBTQ+ community, and especially in individuals who hadn't struggled with those issues in the past.
- Overall, depression increased by an average PHQ-9 score of 1.21 and anxiety increased by an average GAD-7 score of 3.11.
- The researchers recommended that health care providers check in with LGBTQ+ patients about stress and screen for mood and anxiety disorders—even among those with no prior history of anxiety or depression.
Study findings<p>For the study, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05970-4" target="_blank">published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine</a><em>, </em>Flentje and her team evaluated survey responses from nearly 2,300 individuals who identified as being in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+) community. Most of the participants were white, while nearly 19 percent identified as a racial or ethnic minority. Multiple genders were represented with cisgender women (27.2 percent) and men (24.6 percent) making up a majority of the participants. Sixty-three percent had been assigned female at birth. For the most part, participants identified their sexual orientations as queer (40.3 percent), gay (36.5 percent), and bisexual (30.3 percent).</p><p>The JGIM study participants were recruited from the 18,000-participant <a href="https://pridestudy.org/" target="_blank">PRIDE Study</a> (Population Research in Identity and Disparities for Equality), which is the first large-scale, long-term national study focusing on American adults who identify as LGBTQ+. It conducts annual questionnaires to understand factors related to health and disease in this population. </p><p>Participants filled out an annual questionnaire (starting in June 2019) and a COVID-19 impact survey this past spring. Flentje noted that on an individual level, some people may not have experienced a big change in anxiety or depression levels, but for others there was. Overall, depression increased by a <a href="https://patient.info/doctor/patient-health-questionnaire-phq-9" target="_blank">PHQ-9 score</a> of 1.21, putting it at 8.31 on average. Anxiety went up by a <a href="https://www.mdcalc.com/gad-7-general-anxiety-disorder-7" target="_blank">GAD-7</a> score of 3.11 to an average of 8.89. Interestingly, the average PHQ-9 scores for those who screened positive for depression at the first 2019 survey decreased by 1.08. Those who screened negative for depression saw their PHQ-9 scores increase by 2.17 on average. As for anxiety, researchers detected no GAD-7 change among the study participants who screened positive for anxiety in the first survey, but did see an overall increase of 3.93 among those who had initially been evaluated as negative for the disorder. </p>
Risks among gender and sexual minorities<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="fc3fd1ae68b77bbbf58a6995638d6d65"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EnUqDjCqg0A?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>The LGBTQ+ community is a vulnerable population to mental health concerns because of their fear of stigmatization and previous discriminatory experiences.</p> <p>Previous research by the Human Rights Campaign has found "that LGBTQ Americans are more likely than the <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/tags/general+population/" target="_blank">general population</a> to live in poverty and lack access to adequate medical care, paid <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/tags/medical+leave/" target="_blank">medical leave</a>, and basic necessities during the pandemic," said researcher Tari Hanneman, director of the health and aging program at the campaign.</p> <p>"Therefore, it is not surprising to see this increase in anxiety and depression among this population," Hanneman said in the release. "This study highlights the need for <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/tags/health+care+professionals/" target="_blank">health care professionals</a> to support, affirm and provide <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/tags/critical+care/" target="_blank">critical care</a> for the LGBTQ community to manage and maintain their mental health, as well as their physical health, during this pandemic."</p>
What should health care providers do?<p>The authors of the study recommend that health care providers check in with LGBTQ+ patients about stress and screen for mood and anxiety disorders in members of that community—even among those with no prior history of anxiety or depression.</p><p>As cases of COVID-19 continue to mount, the sustained social distancing, potential isolation, economic precariousness, and personal illness, grief, and loss are bound to have increased and varied impacts on mental health. Effective treatments may include individual therapy and medications as well as more large-scale coronavirus support programs like peer-led groups and mindfulness practices. </p><p>"It will be important to find out what happens over time and to identify who is most at risk, so we can be sure to roll out public health interventions to support the mental health of our communities in the best and most effective ways," said Flentje.</p>
What we know about black holes is both fascinating and scary.
- When it comes to black holes, science simultaneously knows so much and so little, which is why they are so fascinating. Focusing on what we do know, this group of astronomers, educators, and physicists share some of the most incredible facts about the powerful and mysterious objects.
- A black hole is so massive that light (and anything else it swallows) can't escape, says Bill Nye. You can't see a black hole, theoretical physicists Michio Kaku and Christophe Galfard explain, because it is too dark. What you can see, however, is the distortion of light around it caused by its extreme gravity.
- Explaining one unsettling concept from astrophysics called spaghettification, astronomer Michelle Thaller says that "If you got close to a black hole there would be tides over your body that small that would rip you apart into basically a strand of spaghetti that would fall down the black hole."
The team caught a glimpse of a process that takes 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
- In Italy, a team of scientists is using a highly sophisticated detector to hunt for dark matter.
- The team observed an ultra-rare particle interaction that reveals the half-life of a xenon-124 atom to be 18 sextillion years.
- The half-life of a process is how long it takes for half of the radioactive nuclei present in a sample to decay.
A new study looks at what would happen to human language on a long journey to other star systems.
- A new study proposes that language could change dramatically on long space voyages.
- Spacefaring people might lose the ability to understand the people of Earth.
- This scenario is of particular concern for potential "generation ships".