There's a 20% Chance We're All Sims.
Oxford University Philosopher Nick Bostrom argues that we may all be living in a computer simulation. Meanwhile, the world as we know it is becoming ever more virtualized.
What’s the Big Idea?
Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom argues that we may very well all be Sims. This possibility rests on three developments: (1) the aforementioned megacomputer. (2) The survival and evolution of the human race to a “posthuman” stage. (3) A decision by these posthumans to research their own evolutionary history, or simply amuse themselves, by creating us – virtual simulacra of their ancestors, with independent consciousnesses.
Meanwhile, in the world we know (virtual or not), some computer experts predict we’ll have such computing power by the middle of this century, though our ability to model the minds of even our most remote ancestors lags woefully behind. At present, virtualization technology enables us to run multiple “virtual computers” on a single computer, each with a different operating system, each completely isolated from crashes or viruses that disable the others. This will soon make Cloud-based computer processing (not just storage) possible on a massive scale. And with advanced simulation, we can perform virtual autopsies on virtual victims of virtual car crashes, or predict the devastation a magnitude 7.8 earthquake would cause in downtown Los Angeles.
Daniel Burrus is one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and business strategists. Among futurists, he has the unique distinction of having accurately predicted – in 1983 – the twenty technological developments that still drive global markets today. Burrus says the e–commerce age is over, and the v–commerce age is about to begin.
What’s The Significance?
Virtualization and advanced simulation will have an enormous, and largely invisible, impact on our lives for a long time to come. Invisibility’s kind of the point – these technologies enable us to study, experiment, explore, and take action on a global scale while minimizing or erasing altogether the physical resources we use in the process. Medical students will be able to practice heart surgery on virtual patients before assisting in life-or-death operations. World stock exchanges will no longer require physical trading floors full of shouting people waving their hands – as a result, economic centers like New York and Tokyo may depopulate and be supplanted by “lifestyle hubs” chosen and developed for executive-class comfort.* These evolving technologies will streamline and reshape the way we do business, accelerating the integration of global markets.
New risks will accompany these changes, too. Home computers are vulnerable to viruses and malware, of course, but centralized, Cloud-based processing and storage exposes us to new risks, including large-scale data-theft and sudden loss of access to, say, our Great American Novel-in-progress. And as we come to rely deeply on sophisticated advanced simulation, dangerous disconnects will continue to arise between our online and offline worlds.
*For more on this intriguing concept, see Daniel Altman’s new book: Outrageous Fortunes: The Twelve Surprising Trends that Will Reshape the Global Economy.
NEWS FLASH: IBM produces a "thinking" computer chip modeled on the human brain.
Famous physicists like Richard Feynman think 137 holds the answers to the Universe.
- The fine structure constant has mystified scientists since the 1800s.
- The number 1/137 might hold the clues to the Grand Unified Theory.
- Relativity, electromagnetism and quantum mechanics are unified by the number.
Younger Americans support expanding the Supreme Court and serious political reforms, says new poll.
- Americans under 40 largely favor major political reforms, finds a new survey.
- The poll revealed that most would want to expand the Supreme Court, impose terms limits, and make it easier to vote.
- Millennials are more liberal and reform-centered than Generation Z.
A 2020 study published in the journal of Psychological Science explores the idea that fake news can actually help you remember real facts better.
- In 2019, researchers at Stanford Engineering analyzed the spread of fake news as if it were a strain of Ebola. They adapted a model for understanding diseases that can infect a person more than once to better understand how fake news spreads and gains traction.
- A new study published in 2020 explores the idea that fake news can actually help you remember real facts better.
- "These findings demonstrate one situation in which misinformation reminders can diminish the negative effects of fake-news exposure in the short term," researchers on the project explained.
Previous studies on misinformation have already paved the way to a better understanding<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDU1NzQ4NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjE2Mjg1Nn0.hs_xHktN1KXUDVoWpHIVBI2sMJy6aRK6tvBVFkqmYjk/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C800%2C0%2C823&height=700" id="fc135" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="246bb1920c0f40ccb15e123914de1ab1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="fake news concept of misinformation and fake news in the media" />
How does misinformation spread?
Credit: Visual Generation on Shutterstock<p><strong>What is the "continued-influence" effect?</strong></p><p>A challenge in using corrections effectively is that repeating the misinformation can have negative consequences. Research on this effect (referred to as "continued-influence") has shown that information presented as factual that is later deemed false can still contaminate memory and reasoning. The persistence of the continued-influence effect has led researchers to generally recommend avoiding repeating misinformation. </p><p>"Repetition increases familiarity and believability of misinformation," <a href="https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/article/how-fake-news-spreads-real-virus" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the study explains</a>.</p><p><strong>What is the "familiarity-backfire" effect?</strong></p><p>Studies of this effect have shown that increasing misinformation familiarity through extra exposure to it leads to misattributions of fluency when the context of said information cannot be recalled. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956797620952797#" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">A 2017 study</a> examined this effect in myth correction. Subjects rated beliefs in facts and myths of unclear veracity. Then, the facts were affirmed and myths corrected and subjects again made belief ratings. The results suggested a role for familiarity but the myth beliefs remained below pre-manipulation levels. </p>