With much of the econ-finance talk these days still centered around the possibility of a looming “double-dip” let’s take a closer look at two particularly sensitive and accurate leading indicators of our economic health to see if we can tease out the future trends. … So what are these two important indicators saying about our current economic situation? The yield curve spread indicator is indicating that the probability of recession is nearly zero while the ECRI leading index is showing some strengthening signs with the growth component currently at a tepid level of 4.1.
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