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9 ways self-driving vehicles could change tourism
Future vacationing could be pretty different.
- A study examines how autonomous vehicles could change the tourism experience
- Removing a human driver adds some new possibilities, like personalized sightseeing tours
- Sex on wheels, anyone?
While experts and manufacturers often assert that self-driving vehicles will come to market by 2020, others are skeptical, as some required elements are far from realization, among them digital maps for cars and cheap enough onboard sensors, computers, and power supplies. (Current hardware is prohibitively expensive for mass production.) Also, more robust networks will be required for all of these connect vehicles. Still, people are already considering the eventual passenger experience — what will we do as we're ferried hither and yon?
In the January 2019 issues of Annals of Tourism Research is an article by the University of Surrey's Scott A.Cohen and Oxfords' Debbie Hopkins. The article's called "Autonomous vehicles and the future of urban tourism," and it examines the impact of future autonomous vehicles on urban tourism. The researchers consider the ways in which sightseeing, recreation, and lodging may change once the technology has matured to the point that vacationers are comfortable enough to let their connected autonomous vehicles, or personal CAVs — and shared, connected autonomous vehicles, or SCAVs — do the driving. Absent the cost of human drivers and with the presumed greater safety — especially with the removal of jet-lagged travelers from behind the wheels of rental cars — Cohen and Hopkins suggest a number of things that could be different.
1. Self-driving taxis
One of the sectors benefiting most from current tourism is taxi drivers. With self-driving vehicles, however, cab drivers could be largely put out of business. On the other hand, self-driving cars are expect to be safer than human-driven cars, so passengers may prefer a less dangerous ride through a new city.
2. Targeted sightseeing
Imagine sightseeing vehicles programmed to satisfy the visitors being shown around town. A pre-trip questionnaire could result in a map optimized for the travelers' interests, reducing the potential for wasted ho-hum vacation moments.
The authors note a couple of potential downsides. First, once the sightseeing vehicle "knows" what interest you, would it also bombard you with onboard targeted ads? Also, the impact of private sightseeing CAVs — as opposed to multi-traveler SCAVs — could lead to greater urban congestion.
3. Extended sightseeing
A car drives beside a Route 66 highgway mural in the downtown district of Albuqurque, New Mexico on October 1, 2018. MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images
Another possible outcome the authors suggest is that sightseeing tours could inexpensively cover larger areas, allowing for more expansively themed trips. Onboard recreations could be provided to keep visitors engaged and amused. Which brings us to…
4. Rolling hotel rooms
With tourists feeling safe in their vehicles, why not catch some sleep en route to the next destination? Ideally, it would look a more comfortable than this, but the thought is there. If people can catch sleep on planes, why not make ground travel more sleepable and appealing?
5. Rolling entertainment
Or you could catch a show. How about a movie, or some sort of VR/AR entertainment? Experiencing a VR environment — related to your real location or not — could be a really fun way to get from place to place.
6. If the SCAV’s rocking, don’t come a-knocking
The report notes the relative lack of interest in studying nyctalopia in that academia "tends to overlook what happens when night falls." Thinking about this, though, autonomous vehicles may see "a variety of practices and emotions gain traction within a particular space-time which generates a special atmosphere associated with particular activities, experiences and possibilities." Night-time travel, like any night-time venue, could provide a mobile setting for "criminal acts, a rendezvous for lovers, nonconventional behaviors, or organizing rebellion."
So, yeah, mobile sex. And maybe revolution.
7. Events and parties
Could larger CVAs contain moving events or parties that allow an organizer to control the atmosphere more absolutely without concerns of its effect on a stationary space? We're thinking easier cleanups, better security, etc. SCAVs could also gather its participants as as the night rolls on.
8. Restaurants and bars
If diners enjoy viewing a skyline from up high while eating, why not the ever-changing nighttime cityscape of well-planned urban tour passing by at ground level? The same could apply to watering holes — why just stare at a bartender when you could be taking in the sights?
9. Less parking to be done
NANJING, CHINA - OCTOBER 31: Abandoned vehicles sit parked inside an industrial park on October 31, 2018 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China. Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images
One great way to make money for a developer is to open a parking garage in a popular tourist destination. With tourists riding around in SCAVs instead of private vehicles, though, that investment seems considerably less attractive. Of course, tourists will no longer have the difficulty or expense of finding somewhere to park. On-street and roadside parking would also be less necessary, and the authors wonder, "What if parking lots and roadside parking could be transformed into city parks, event spaces and bike lanes?"
Automated tourism of the future, or not? Discuss.
Taxis, sightseeing, and parking changes all seem inevitable and desirable. But it's fair to ask of this study exactly how much of this ambulatory activity is actually desirable, or even that new? After all, people sleep on trains as they travel already, and on planes. Would people prefer sex for some reason in a moving vehicle to a stationary room somewhere? (Mind the potholes.) Much of what's envisioned in the study is already doable with a human driver, and one wonders how much more popular such activities would become absent that one factor — we see very few people engaging in them now. We'll have to wait and see.
Scientists discover what our human ancestors were making inside the Wonderwerk Cave in South Africa 1.8 million years ago.
- Researchers find evidence of early tool-making and fire use inside the Wonderwerk Cave in Africa.
- The scientists date the human activity in the cave to 1.8 million years ago.
- The evidence is the earliest found yet and advances our understanding of human evolution.
One of the oldest activities carried out by humans has been identified in a cave in South Africa. A team of geologists and archaeologists found evidence that our ancestors were making fire and tools in the Wonderwerk Cave in the country's Kalahari Desert some 1.8 million years ago.
A new study published in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews from researchers at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the University of Toronto proposes that Wonderwerk — which means "miracle" in Afrikaans — contains the oldest evidence of human activity discovered.
"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," shared the study's lead author Professor Ron Shaar from Hebrew University.
Oldowan stone tools are the earliest type of tools that date as far back as 2.6 million years ago. An Oldowan tool, which was useful for chopping, was made by chipping flakes off of one stone by hitting it with another stone.
An Oldowan stone toolCredit: Wikimedia / Public domain
Professor Shaar explained that Wonderwerk is different from other ancient sites where tool shards have been found because it is a cave and not in the open air, where sample origins are harder to pinpoint and contamination is possible.
Studying the cave, the researchers were able to pinpoint the time over one million years ago when a shift from Oldowan tools to the earliest handaxes could be observed. Investigating deeper in the cave, the scientists also established that a purposeful use of fire could be dated to one million years back.
This is significant because examples of early fire use usually come from sites in the open air, where there is the possibility that they resulted from wildfires. The remnants of ancient fires in a cave — including burned bones, ash, and tools — contain clear clues as to their purpose.
To precisely date their discovery, the researchers relied on paleomagnetism and burial dating to measure magnetic signals from the remains hidden within a sedimentary rock layer that was 2.5 meters thick. Prehistoric clay particles that settled on the cave floor exhibit magnetization and can show the direction of the ancient earth's magnetic field. Knowing the dates of magnetic field reversals allowed the scientists to narrow down the date range of the cave layers.
The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk CaveCredit: Michael Chazan / Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Professor Ari Matmon of Hebrew University used another dating method to solidify their conclusions, focusing on isotopes within quartz particles in the sand that "have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave." He elaborated that in their lab, the scientists were "able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."
Finding the exact dates of human activity in the Wonderwerk Cave could lead to a better understanding of human evolution in Africa as well as the way of life of our early ancestors.
If you ask your maps app to find "restaurants that aren't McDonald's," you won't like the result.
- The Chinese Room thought experiment is designed to show how understanding something cannot be reduced to an "input-process-output" model.
- Artificial intelligence today is becoming increasingly sophisticated thanks to learning algorithms but still fails to demonstrate true understanding.
- All humans demonstrate computational habits when we first learn a new skill, until this somehow becomes understanding.
It's your first day at work, and a new colleague, Kendall, catches you over coffee.
"You watch the game last night?" she says. You're desperate to make friends, but you hate football.
"Sure, I can't believe that result," you say, vaguely, and it works. She nods happily and talks at you for a while. Every day after that, you live a lie. You listen to a football podcast on the weekend and then regurgitate whatever it is you hear. You have no idea what you're saying, but it seems to impress Kendall. You somehow manage to come across as an expert, and soon she won't stop talking football with you.
The question is: do you actually know about football, or are you imitating knowledge? And what's the difference? Welcome to philosopher John Searle's "Chinese Room."
The Chinese Room
Searle's argument was designed as a critique of what's called a "functionalist" view of mind. This is the philosophy that argues that our mind can be explained fully by what role it plays, or in other words, what it does or what "function" it has.
One form of functionalism sees the human mind as following an "input-process-output" model. We have the input of our senses, the process of our brains, and a behavioral output. Searle thought this was at best an oversimplification, and his Chinese Room thought experiment goes to show how human minds are not simply biological computers. It goes like this:
Imagine a room, and inside is John, who can't speak a word of Chinese. Outside the room, a Chinese person sends a message into the room in Chinese. Luckily, John has an "if-then" book for Chinese characters. For instance, if he gets <你好吗>, the proper reply is <我还好>. All John has to do is follow his instruction book.
The Chinese speaker outside of the room thinks they're talking to someone inside who knows Chinese. But in reality, it's just John with his fancy book.
What is understanding?
Does John understand Chinese? The Chinese Room is, by all accounts, a computational view of the mind, yet it seems that something is missing. Truly understanding something is not an "if-then" automated response. John is missing that sinking in feeling, the absorption, the bit of understanding that's so hard to express. Understanding a language doesn't work like this. Humans are not Google Translate.
And yet, this is how AIs are programmed. A computer system is programmed to provide a certain output based on a finite list of certain inputs. If I double click the mouse, I open a file. If you type a letter, your monitor displays tiny black squiggles. If we press the right buttons in order, we win at Mario Kart. Input — Process — Output.
Can imitation become so fluid or competent that it is understanding.
But AIs don't know what they're doing, and Google Translate doesn't really understand what it's saying, does it? They're just following a programmer's orders. If I say, "Will it rain tomorrow?" Siri can look up the weather. But if I ask, "Will water fall from the clouds tomorrow?" it'll be stumped. A human would not (although they might look at you oddly).
A fun way to test just how little an AI understands us is to ask your maps app to find "restaurants that aren't McDonald's." Unsurprisingly, you won't get what you want.
The Future of AI
To be fair, the field of artificial intelligence is just getting started. Yes, it's easy right now to trick our voice assistant apps, and search engines can be frustratingly unhelpful at times. But that doesn't mean AI will always be like that. It might be that the problem is only one of complexity and sophistication, rather than anything else. It might be that the "if-then" rule book just needs work. Things like "the McDonald's test" or AI's inability to respond to original questions reveal only a limitation in programming. Given that language and the list of possible questions is finite, it's quite possible that AI will be able to (at the very least) perfectly mimic a human response in the not too distant future.
What's more, AIs today have increasingly advanced learning capabilities. Algorithms are no longer simply input-process-output but rather allow systems to search for information and adapt anew to what they receive.
A notorious example of this occurred when a Microsoft chat bot started spouting bigotry and racism after "learning" from what it read on Twitter. (Although, this might just say more about Twitter than AI.) Or, more sinister perhaps, two Facebook chat bots were shut down after it was discovered that they were not only talking to each other but were doing so in an invented language. Did they understand what they were doing? Who's to say that, with enough learning and enough practice, an AI "Chinese Room" might not reach understanding?
Can imitation become understanding?
We've all been a "Chinese Room" at times — be it talking about sports at work, cramming for an exam, using a word we didn't entirely know the meaning of, or calculating math problems. We can all mimic understanding, but it also begs the question: can imitation become so fluid or competent that it is understanding.
The old adage "fake it, 'till you make it" has been proven true over and over. If you repeat an action enough times, it becomes easy and habitual. For instance, when you practice a language, musical instrument, or a math calculation, then after a while, it becomes second nature. Our brain changes with repetition.
So, it might just be that we all start off as Chinese Rooms when we learn something new, but this still leaves us with a pertinent question: when, how, and at what point does John actually understand Chinese? More importantly, will Siri or Alexa ever understand you?
With the rise of Big Data, methods used to study the movement of stars or atoms can now reveal the movement of people. This could have important implications for cities.
- A treasure trove of mobility data from devices like smartphones has allowed the field of "city science" to blossom.
- I recently was part of team that compared mobility patterns in Brazilian and American cities.
- We found that, in many cities, low-income and high-income residents rarely travel to the same geographic locations. Such segregation has major implications for urban design.
Almost 55 percent of the world's seven billion people live in cities. And unless the COVID-19 pandemic puts a serious — and I do mean serious — dent in long-term trends, the urban fraction will climb almost to 70 percent by midcentury. Given that our project of civilization is staring down a climate crisis, the massive population shift to urban areas is something that could really use some "sciencing."
Is urbanization going to make things worse? Will it make things better? Will it lead to more human thriving or more grinding poverty and inequality? These questions need answers, and a science of cities, if there was such a thing, could provide answers.
Good news. There already is one!
The science of cities
With the rise of Big Data (for better or worse), scientists from a range of disciplines are getting an unprecedented view into the beating heart of cities and their dynamics. Of course, really smart people have been studying cities scientifically for a long time. But Big Data methods have accelerated what's possible to warp speed. As "exhibit A" for the rise of a new era of city science, let me introduce you to the field of "human mobility" and a new study just published by a team I was on.
Credit: nonnie192 / 405009778 via Adobe Stock
Human mobility is a field that's been amped up by all those location-enabled devices we carry around and the large-scale datasets of our activities, such as credit card purchases, taxi rides, and mobile phone usage. These days, all of us are leaving digital breadcrumbs of our everyday activities, particularly our movements around towns and cities. Using anonymized versions of these datasets (no names please), scientists can look for patterns in how large collections of people engage in daily travel and how these movements correlate with key social factors like income, health, and education.
There have been many studies like this in the recent past. For example, researchers looking at mobility patterns in Louisville, Kentucky found that low-income residents tended to travel further on average than affluent ones. Another study found that mobility patterns across different socioeconomic classes exhibit very similar characteristics in Boston and Singapore. And an analysis of mobility in Bogota, Colombia found that the most mobile population was neither the poorest nor the wealthiest citizens but the upper-middle class.
These were all excellent studies, but it was hard to make general conclusions from them. They seemed to point in different directions. The team I was part of wanted to get a broader, comparative view of human mobility and income. Through a partnership with Google, we were able to compare data from two countries — Brazil and the United States — of relatively equal populations but at different points on the "development spectrum." By comparing mobility patterns both within and between the two countries, we hoped to gain a better understanding of how people at different income levels moved around each day.
Mobility in Brazil vs. United States
Socioeconomic mobility "heatmaps" for selected cities in the U.S. and Brazil. The colors represent destination based on income level. Red depicts destinations traveled by low-income residents, while blue depicts destinations traveled by high-income residents. Overlapping areas are colored purple.Credit: Hugo Barbosa et al., Scientific Reports, 2021.
The results were remarkable. In a figure from our paper (shown above), it's clear that we found two distinct kinds of relationship between income and mobility in cities.
The first was a relatively sharp distinction between where people in lower and higher income brackets traveled each day. For example, in my hometown of Rochester, New York or Detroit, the places visited by the two income groups (e.g., job sites, shopping centers, doctors' offices) were relatively partitioned. In other words, people from low-income and high-income neighborhoods were not mixing very much, meaning they weren't spending time in the same geographical locations. In addition, lower income groups traveled to the city center more often, while upper income groups traveled around the outer suburbs.
The second kind of relationship was exemplified by cities like Boston and Atlanta, which didn't show this kind of partitioning. There was a much higher degree of mixing in terms of travel each day, indicating that income was less of a factor for determining where people lived or traveled.
In Brazil, however, all the cities showed the kind of income-based segregation seen in U.S. cities like Rochester and Detroit. There was a clear separation of regions visited with practically no overlap. And unlike the U.S., visits by the wealthy were strongly concentrated in the city centers, while the poor largely traversed the periphery.
Data-driven urban design
Our results have straightforward implications for city design. As we wrote in the paper, "To the extent that it is undesirable to have cities with residents whose ability to navigate and access resources is dependent on their socioeconomic status, public policy measures to mitigate this phenomenon are the need of the hour." That means we need better housing and public transportation policies.
But while our study shows there are clear links between income disparity and mobility patterns, it also shows something else important. As an astrophysicist who spent decades applying quantitative methods to stars and planets, I am amazed at how deep we can now dive into understanding cities using similar methods. We have truly entered a new era in the study of cities and all human systems. Hopefully, we'll use this new power for good.
A small percentage of people who consume psychedelics experience strange lingering effects, sometimes years after they took the drug.