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Hurricane Dorian: Why are more extreme storms stalling?
The Category 5 hurricane was moving at speeds of about 1 mph over the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday.
- Hurricane Dorian is one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, with wind speeds of more than 200 mph.
- The storm was moving slowly over the Bahamas as a result of clashing high- and low-pressure systems.
- It's unclear whether climate change is causing shifts in large-scale wind patterns, but scientists generally agree that warmer temperatures are causing storms to become stronger.
Hurricane Dorian became on Sunday the strongest hurricane to ever hit the Bahamas, pummelling islands with 200-mph winds and more than 20 feet of coastal flooding. At its strongest point, the Category 5 storm — the most severe ranking — floated nearly motionless over the islands, inching along at about 1 mph as it dropped more than 2 feet of rain. At least five people in the Bahamas were killed by the storm.
By Monday, Dorian was a Category 4 storm. On Tuesday, the slow-moving hurricane had lost much of its steam and was downranked to Category 2. But Dorian has grown in size if not force, and it's expected to move northerly over the Atlantic, parallel with the coast of Florida and, later, Georgia and the Carolinas. Violent winds have already struck parts of Florida, and officials in multiple states have already ordered thousands of residents to evacuate.
The core of Dorian is finally moving away from Grand Bahama Island. At 1 pm Dorian was located 50 mi N of Freeport… https://t.co/z4GakuHlWO— NWS Eastern Region (@NWS Eastern Region)1567530851.0
"I can't decide for you, but I'm asking you, as the mayor of Savannah: Please attempt to get out of town as best you can, and come back in a few days and begin your life over and move forward," Eddie DeLoach, mayor of Savannah, Georgia, said in a public appearance Monday night, according to The Savannah Morning News.
For now, the main focus of residents and officials in the storm's path is safety, rescue and, eventually, reconstruction. But for scientists who study storms and climate change, Dorian's intensity and brutal sluggishness highlight how warming temperatures are changing the nature of extreme storms around the globe.
A pattern of stalling hurricanes
In recent years, scientists have identified a pattern: Severe hurricanes are not only becoming stronger and more common, but many are also moving more slowly and even stalling, as Hurricane Harvey did over Houston for days in 2017, dumping 60 inches of rain in the process. A study published in June by NASA and NOAA scientists showed that the average forward speed of North Atlantic hurricanes has slowed from 11.5 mph in 1944 to 9.6 mph in 2017.
So, is climate change making hurricanes slower? It's too early to say for sure, and the issue is still an area of debate among climate scientists. In the case of Dorian, the violent storm stalled above the Bahamas because, somewhat ironically, the atmosphere was too calm; a clash between high- and low-pressure systems caused the weather pattern to come to a standstill.
"Was it caused by climate change?" is the most common question when we hear about an extreme event. But when it com… https://t.co/XtckqQCmNa— Prof. Katharine Hayhoe (@Prof. Katharine Hayhoe)1567272551.0
But scientists generally believe that warmer temperatures in the Arctic are likely playing a part in slowing down wind patterns, as NOAA hurricane expert Jim Kossin, co-author of the June study, told InsideClimate News:
"...in the broadest sense, global warming makes the global atmospheric circulation slow down," he said. "There is a lot of evidence to suggest this is more than just natural variability."
How exactly warmer temperatures affect wind patterns is a complicated issue that needs further research. But there's little debate among climate scientists as to whether climate change is making storms worse and more common.
"The environment for all such storms has changed because of climate change," Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Inside ClimateNews. "The oceans are warmer, especially in the upper 100 meters, which is most important for such storms," Trenberth said. "This makes available more energy via water vapor for the storms and makes for more activity: more intensity, bigger and longer lasting storms, with heavier rainfalls."
Ever since we've had the technology, we've looked to the stars in search of alien life. It's assumed that we're looking because we want to find other life in the universe, but what if we're looking to make sure there isn't any?
Here's an equation, and a rather distressing one at that: N = R* × fP × ne × f1 × fi × fc × L. It's the Drake equation, and it describes the number of alien civilizations in our galaxy with whom we might be able to communicate. Its terms correspond to values such as the fraction of stars with planets, the fraction of planets on which life could emerge, the fraction of planets that can support intelligent life, and so on. Using conservative estimates, the minimum result of this equation is 20. There ought to be 20 intelligent alien civilizations in the Milky Way that we can contact and who can contact us. But there aren't any.
Building a personal connection with students can counteract some negative side effects of remote learning.
- Not being able to engage with students in-person due to the pandemic has presented several new challenges for educators, both technical and social. Digital tools have changed the way we all think about learning, but George Couros argues that more needs to be done to make up for what has been lost during "emergency remote teaching."
- One interesting way he has seen to bridge that gap and strengthen teacher-student and student-student relationships is through an event called Identity Day. Giving students the opportunity to share something they are passionate about makes them feel more connected and gets them involved in their education.
- "My hope is that we take these skills and these abilities we're developing through this process and we actually become so much better for our kids when we get back to our face-to-face setting," Couros says. He adds that while no one can predict the future, we can all do our part to adapt to it.
Frequent shopping for single items adds to our carbon footprint.
- A new study shows e-commerce sites like Amazon leave larger greenhouse gas footprints than retail stores.
- Ordering online from retail stores has an even smaller footprint than going to the store yourself.
- Greening efforts by major e-commerce sites won't curb wasteful consumer habits. Consolidating online orders can make a difference.
A pile of recycled cardboard sits on the ground at Recology's Recycle Central on January 4, 2018 in San Francisco, California.
Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images<p>A large part of the reason is speed. In a competitive market, pure players use the equation, <em>speed + convenience</em>, to drive adoption. This is especially relevant to the "last mile" GHG footprint: the distance between the distribution center and the consumer.</p><p>Interestingly, the smallest GHG footprint occurs when you order directly from a physical store—even smaller than going there yourself. Pure players, such as Amazon, are the greatest offenders. Variables like geographic location matter; the team looked at shopping in the UK, the US, China, and the Netherlands. </p><p>Sadegh Shahmohammadi, a PhD student at the Netherlands' Radboud University and corresponding author of the paper, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/tech/greenhouse-gas-emissions-retail/index.html" target="_blank">says</a> the above "pattern holds true in countries where people mostly drive. It really depends on the country and consumer behavior there."</p><p>The researchers write that this year-and-a-half long study pushes back on previous research that claims online shopping to be better in terms of GHG footprints.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"They have, however, compared the GHG emissions per shopping event and did not consider the link between the retail channels and the basket size, which leads to a different conclusion than that of the current study."</p><p>Online retail is where convenience trumps environment: people tend to order one item at a time when shopping on pure player sites, whereas they stock up on multiple items when visiting a store. Consumers will sometimes order a number of separate items over the course of a week rather than making one trip to purchase everything they need. </p><p>While greening efforts by online retailers are important, until a shift in consumer attitude changes, the current carbon footprint will be a hard obstacle to overcome. Amazon is trying to have it both ways—carbon-free and convenience addicted—and the math isn't adding up. If you need to order things, do it online, but try to consolidate your purchases as much as possible.</p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://derekberes.substack.com/" target="_blank">Substack</a>. His next book is</em> "<em>Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy."</em></p>
Chronic irregular sleep in children was associated with psychotic experiences in adolescence, according to a recent study out of the University of Birmingham's School of Psychology.