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Map shows how the U.S.-China trade dispute is hurting American farmers
American farmers are expected to traverse a rocky financial road in the coming months.
- American farmers are seeing economic losses as a result from the U.S.-China trade dispute.
- Farmers of soybeans, which is the most imported U.S. crop in China, have been hit especially hard.
- All agricultural commodities are at risk.
American farmers are suffering economic losses from a U.S.-China trade dispute that shows no signs of slowing down.
On Monday, the Trump administration announced plans for the U.S. to impose a 10-percent tariff starting Sept. 24 on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, increasing to 25 percent on Jan. 1. The Chinese government responded a day later by announcing new tariffs on U.S. goods worth $60 billion.
Losses across the country
A new map from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service, which shows year-over-year changes in net cash farm income, illustrates how farmers in all regions of the U.S. are, in part, already losing money from the tit-for-tat retaliatory measures.
Each region of the country specializes in certain crops, for example:
- Basin and Range: beef and wheat
- Heartland: soybeans and corn
- Northern Crescent: dairy
- Northern Great Plains: wheat, corn, soybeans
- Prairie Gateway: wheat, corn, soybeans
- Fruitful Rim: fruits, citrus fruits, vegetables
- Mississippi Portal: cotton, soybeans, corn
- Southern Seaboard: cotton, peanuts, rice
"All of these commodity prices are linked together," Gary Schnitkey, Professor in Farm Management at the University of Illinois, told Yahoo Finance. "If soybean prices fall, so do corn and wheat."
American growers of soybean, which is the most-imported U.S. commodity in China, are expected to be hit hardest by the trade dispute. In 2017, China imported from the U.S. about 33 million tons of soybeans, which are used to feed livestock and make cooking oil. If China can find another source for its soybeans, such as Brazil, the U.S. could see economic losses in the billions.
"On the U.S. side, farmers will suffer the most from the imposition of Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans," Loren Puette, director of Taiwan-based research firm ChinaAg, told DW. "To have the Chinese market shut down for these farmers would be a major financial blow," Puette says.
Still, China would likely suffer in the transition, too.
"The annual loss in U.S. economic well-being would range between $1.7 billion and $3.3 billion," said Wally Tyner, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. "Chinese economic well-being also falls if they impose a tariff, in some cases as much or more than for the U.S. The reason for that is that soybean imports are very important to their domestic economy."
Some have suggested an additional reason why China is targeting soybeans: to turn soybean farmers, many of whom are based in red states, against President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
"With the midterm elections only a few months away, we would expect China to keep the pressure turned up," John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at the Wells Fargo Investments Institute, wrote in a note to clients. "But soon thereafter… we would expect to see some relief for U.S. soy prices and U.S. soy exporters."
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Andy Samberg and Cristin Milioti get stuck in an infinite wedding time loop.
- Two wedding guests discover they're trapped in an infinite time loop, waking up in Palm Springs over and over and over.
- As the reality of their situation sets in, Nyles and Sarah decide to enjoy the repetitive awakenings.
- The film is perfectly timed for a world sheltering at home during a pandemic.
China moves to Russia and India takes over Canada. The Swiss get Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi India. And the U.S.? It stays where it is.
What if the world were rearranged so that the inhabitants of the country with the largest population would move to the country with the largest area? And the second-largest population would migrate to the second-largest country, and so on?
A recent analysis of a 76-million-year-old Centrosaurus apertus fibula confirmed that dinosaurs suffered from cancer, too.
- The fibula was originally discovered in 1989, though at the time scientists believed the damaged bone had been fractured.
- After reanalyzing the bone, and comparing it with fibulas from a human and another dinosaur, a team of scientists confirmed that the dinosaur suffered from the bone cancer osteosarcoma.
- The study shows how modern techniques can help scientists learn about the ancient origins of diseases.
Centrosaurus apertus fibula
Royal Ontario Museum<p>In the recent study, the team used a combination of techniques to analyze the fibula, including taking CT scans, casting the bone and studying thin slices of it under a microscope. The analysis suggested that the dinosaur likely suffered from osteosarcoma, a type of bone cancer that affects modern humans, typically young adults.</p><p>For further evidence, the team compared the damaged fibula to a healthy fibula from a dinosaur of the same species, and also to a fibula that belonged to a 19-year-old human who suffered from osteosarcoma. Both comparisons supported the osteosarcoma diagnosis.</p>
Evans et al.<p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The shin bone shows aggressive cancer at an advanced stage," Evans said in a <a href="https://www.rom.on.ca/en/about-us/newsroom/press-releases/rare-malignant-cancer-diagnosed-in-a-dinosaur" target="_blank">press release</a>. "The cancer would have had crippling effects on the individual and made it very vulnerable to the formidable tyrannosaur predators of the time."</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"The fact that this plant-eating dinosaur lived in a large, protective herd may have allowed it to survive longer than it normally would have with such a devastating disease."</p><p>The fossilized fibula was originally unearthed in a bonebed alongside the remains of dozens of other <em>Centrosaurus </em><em>apertus</em>, suggesting the dinosaur didn't die from cancer, but from a flood that swept it away with its herd.</p>
Dinosaur fibula; the tumor mass is depicted in yellow.
Royal Ontario Museum/McMaster University<p>The new study highlights how modern techniques can help scientists learn more about the evolutionary origins of modern diseases, like cancer. It also shows that dinosaurs suffered through some of the same terrestrial afflictions humans face today.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Dinosaurs can seem like mythical creatures, but they were living, breathing animals that suffered through horrible injuries and diseases," Evans said, "and this discovery certainly makes them more real and helps bring them to life in that respect."</p>
Join the lauded author of Range in conversation with best-selling author and poker pro Maria Konnikova!
UPDATE: Unfortunately, Malcolm Gladwell was not able to make the live stream due to scheduling issues. Fortunately, David Epstein was able to jump in at a moment's notice. We hope you enjoy this great yet unexpected episode of Big Think Live. Our thanks to David and Maria for helping us deliver a show, it is much appreciated.