A new report produced by analysts at Morgan Stanley reveals that last year, global demand for wine exceeded the available supply by 300 million cases, representing what they’re calling “the deepest shortfall in over 40 years of records.” Even though, according to the report, there are over a million wine producers worldwide producing about 2.8 billion cases yearly, they’re not producing enough to satisfy a consumption rate that’s been growing almost without exception since 1996. The analysts predict that current wineries’ inventories will decline as previous years’ vintages are consumed, and that once bottles of 2012 vintage start being opened, “expect the current production shortfall to culminate in a significant increase in export demand, and higher prices for exports globally.”
What’s the Big Idea?
One reason for the shortfall could lie with Europe, where vine pull — in which grape growers are paid to pull up some of their vines — has combined with bad weather to reduce production by 25 percent since 2004. Meanwhile, “New World” countries, such as Australia, South Africa, and the US, have been putting out more wine in the same period, which means they “stand to benefit most from increasing demand on global export markets.”