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Finding 'patient zero': The challenges of tracing the origins of coronavirus
Will identifying patient zero curb the spread, or just cause stigma?
Every country that confirms a local case of COVID-19 – and there are more than 70 such countries now – faces the daunting task of tracking down its initial patient.
This is an important means to safeguard the broader population because locating everyone that this "patient zero" has come into contact with can help curb further transmission. But the people contracting this particular coronavirus do not show enough signs of being sick quickly enough to make their condition known before they may have passed it on. This pattern has helped to make each new national origin probe of COVID-19 – as it continues to spread – incredibly difficult.
While some countries have seen a gradual rise in confirmed cases, others, like Italy, have endured unnerving spikes weeks after their initial confirmation. Italy's first identified case was a 38-year-old man from a town southeast of Milan who hadn't traveled to China. Scientists originally believed Italy's patient zero was a colleague of his who had just returned from a business trip to China, but this person tested negative – and no other obvious candidates were identified.
Image: World Economic Forum
Iran, too, has suffered from a dramatic uptick in confirmed cases of COVID-19, and over a relatively short period of time. The country's health minister identified an unnamed merchant from Qom who regularly traveled to China as Iran's potential patient zero. The merchant, who has since died, had allegedly used indirect flights to get around a ban on direct passage to China implemented in late January, the health minister said – just a few days later, the country's deputy health minister tested positive for COVID-19.
As COVID-19 has spread, so has the popularity of the 2011 film "Contagion" – which has a plot built around the initial victim of a deadly virus. Real-life efforts to track down patient zero are proving to be more complicated. Ultimately, it's an open question whether singling out one person as a source of the epidemic is even appropriate, as it may do more harm than good by leading to stigma or misinformation.
For more context, here are links to more reading, courtesy of the World Economic Forum's Strategic Intelligence platform:
- Identifying everyone a COVID-19 patient has had contact with is difficult even when you know how they became infected – and if you don't, the task is herculean. In the US, these investigations are falling to already-overworked state and county health agencies. (STAT)
- The plot thickens: a study by Chinese researchers published in The Lancet suggested that the "symptom onset" of the first COVID-19 patient occurred on 1 December 2019, and that there was no clear epidemiological link between this first patient and later cases. (The Lancet)
- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak caused a stir – and raised questions about responsible online behaviour in the midst of an epidemic – when he abruptly announced on social media that he and his wife might be America's patient zero. Turns out it was just a sinus infection. (The Next Web)
- Tracking down a country's initial COVID-19 patients can be complicated by testing criteria. While the US's narrow criteria meant the CDC had tested fewer than 500 people in the US by late February, South Korea had already tested more than 66,000 people by that same point. (Kaiser Health News)
- How Singapore connected the dots: A COVID-19-related effort that zeroed in on a Chinese New Year gathering has helped the city-state effectively contain the spread of the coronavirus. (The Diplomat)
- Important measures can be taken before identifying a "patient zero" even becomes necessary. When the Swedish government distributed a brochure in 2018 informing people how to best secure essentials like food and water during a disaster, it was mocked. Now, the move seems prescient. (RUSI)
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Innovation in manufacturing has crawled since the 1950s. That's about to speed up.
Richard Feynman once asked a silly question. Two MIT students just answered it.
Here's a fun experiment to try. Go to your pantry and see if you have a box of spaghetti. If you do, take out a noodle. Grab both ends of it and bend it until it breaks in half. How many pieces did it break into? If you got two large pieces and at least one small piece you're not alone.
But science loves a good challenge<p>The mystery remained unsolved until 2005, when French scientists <a href="http://www.lmm.jussieu.fr/~audoly/" target="_blank">Basile Audoly</a> and <a href="http://www.lmm.jussieu.fr/~neukirch/" target="_blank">Sebastien Neukirch </a>won an <a href="https://www.improbable.com/ig/" target="_blank">Ig Nobel Prize</a>, an award given to scientists for real work which is of a less serious nature than the discoveries that win Nobel prizes, for finally determining why this happens. <a href="http://www.lmm.jussieu.fr/spaghetti/audoly_neukirch_fragmentation.pdf" target="_blank">Their paper describing the effect is wonderfully funny to read</a>, as it takes such a banal issue so seriously. </p><p>They demonstrated that when a rod is bent past a certain point, such as when spaghetti is snapped in half by bending it at the ends, a "snapback effect" is created. This causes energy to reverberate from the initial break to other parts of the rod, often leading to a second break elsewhere.</p><p>While this settled the issue of <em>why </em>spaghetti noodles break into three or more pieces, it didn't establish if they always had to break this way. The question of if the snapback could be regulated remained unsettled.</p>
Physicists, being themselves, immediately wanted to try and break pasta into two pieces using this info<p><a href="https://roheiss.wordpress.com/fun/" target="_blank">Ronald Heisser</a> and <a href="https://math.mit.edu/directory/profile.php?pid=1787" target="_blank">Vishal Patil</a>, two graduate students currently at Cornell and MIT respectively, read about Feynman's night of noodle snapping in class and were inspired to try and find what could be done to make sure the pasta always broke in two.</p><p><a href="http://news.mit.edu/2018/mit-mathematicians-solve-age-old-spaghetti-mystery-0813" target="_blank">By placing the noodles in a special machine</a> built for the task and recording the bending with a high-powered camera, the young scientists were able to observe in extreme detail exactly what each change in their snapping method did to the pasta. After breaking more than 500 noodles, they found the solution.</p>
The apparatus the MIT researchers built specifically for the task of snapping hundreds of spaghetti sticks.
(Courtesy of the researchers)
What possible application could this have?<p>The snapback effect is not limited to uncooked pasta noodles and can be applied to rods of all sorts. The discovery of how to cleanly break them in two could be applied to future engineering projects.</p><p>Likewise, knowing how things fragment and fail is always handy to know when you're trying to build things. Carbon Nanotubes, <a href="https://bigthink.com/ideafeed/carbon-nanotube-space-elevator" target="_self">super strong cylinders often hailed as the building material of the future</a>, are also rods which can be better understood thanks to this odd experiment.</p><p>Sometimes big discoveries can be inspired by silly questions. If it hadn't been for Richard Feynman bending noodles seventy years ago, we wouldn't know what we know now about how energy is dispersed through rods and how to control their fracturing. While not all silly questions will lead to such a significant discovery, they can all help us learn.</p>
Join Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and best-selling author Charles Duhigg as he interviews Victoria Montgomery Brown, co-founder and CEO of Big Think.
Women today are founding more businesses than ever. In 2018, they made up 40% of new entrepreneurs, yet in that same year, they received just 2.2% of all venture capital investment. The playing field is off-balance. So what can women do?
In a recent study, researchers examined how Christian nationalism is affecting the U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- A new study used survey data to examine the interplay between Christian nationalism and incautious behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The researchers defined Christian nationalism as "an ideology that idealizes and advocates a fusion of American civic life with a particular type of Christian identity and culture."
- The results showed that Christian nationalism was the leading predictor that Americans engaged in incautious behavior.
A pastor at the chapel of the St. Josef Hospital on April 1, 2020 in Bochum, German
Sascha Schuermann/Getty Images<p>Christian nationalists, in general, believe the U.S. and God's will are tied together, and they want the government to embody conservative Christian values and symbols. As such, they also believe the nation's fate depends on how closely it adheres to Christianity.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Unsurprisingly then, in the midst of the COVID‐19 pandemic, conservative pastors prophesied God's protection over the nation, citing America's righteous support for President Trump and the prolife agenda," the researchers write.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Correspondingly, the link between Christian nationalism and God's influence on how COVID‐19 impacts America can be seen in proclamations about God's divine judgment for its immorality―with the logic being that God is using the pandemic to draw wayward America <em>back </em>to himself, which assumes the two belong together."</p><p>The logical conclusion to this kind of thinking: America can save itself not through cautionary measures, like mask-wearing, but through devotion to God. What's more, it stands to reason that Christian nationalists are less likely to trust the media and scientists, given that these sources are generally not concerned with promoting a conservative, religious view of the world.</p><p>(The researchers note that they're unaware of any research directly linking Christian nationalism to distrust of media sources, but that they're almost certain the two are connected.)</p>
Predicted values of Americans' frequency of incautious behaviors during the COVID‐19 pandemic across values of Christian nationalism
Perry et al.<p>In the new study, the researchers examined three waves of results from the Public and Discourse Ethics Survey. One wave of the survey was issued in May, and it asked respondents to rate how often they engaged in both incautious and precautionary behaviors.</p><p>Incautious behaviors included things like "ate inside a restaurant" and "went shopping for nonessential items," while precautionary behaviors included "washed my hands more often than typical" and "wore a mask in public."</p><p>To measure Christian nationalism, the researchers asked respondents to rate how strongly they agree with statements like "the federal government should advocate Christian values" and "the success of the United States is part of God's plan."</p><p>The results suggest that, compared to other groups, Christian nationalists are far less likely to wear masks, socially distance and take other precautionary measures amid the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Christian nationalism was the leading predictor that Americans engaged in incautious behavior during the pandemic, and the second leading predictor that Americans avoided taking precautionary measures."</p><p>But that's not to say that religious beliefs are causing Americans to reject mask-wearing or social distancing. In fact, when the study accounted for Christian nationalist beliefs, the results showed that Americans with high levels of religiosity were likely to take precautionary measures for COVID-19.</p>
Limitations<p>Still, the researchers note that they're theorizing about the connections between Christian nationalism and COVID-19 behaviors, not documenting them directly. What's more, they suggest that certain experiences — such as having a family member that contracts COVID-19 — might change a Christian nationalist's behaviors during the pandemic.</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Limitations notwithstanding, the implications of this study are important for understanding Americans' curious inability to quickly implement informed and reasonable strategies to overcome the threat of COVID‐19, an inability that has likely cost thousands of lives," they write.</p>
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