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Predicting the president: Two ways election forecasts are misunderstood
Everyone wants to predict who will win the 2020 presidential election. Here are 2 misconceptions to bust so people don't proclaim the death of data like they did in 2016.

United States presidential election results by county, 2016.
- There are two common misconceptions that muddy people's understanding of election forecasting, says Eric Siegel: Blaming the prognosticator and predicting candidates versus predicting voters.
- In 2016, Nate Silver's forecast put about 70% odds on Clinton winning. Despite people's shock at the election results, that forecast was not wrong.
- As predictions for the 2020 presidential election ramp up, it's important to understand what election forecasting means and to bust the misconceptions that warp our expectations.
When it's a presidential election year, speculation is in the cards. It's the national pastime. Everyone wants to predict who'll win.
But, man, did people mismanage their own expectations leading up to the 2016 presidential election, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
This was due in no small part to the misinterpretation of election forecasts. There are two common misconceptions, and correcting them comes down to the fundamental idea of what a probability is.
In 2016, Nate Silver's forecast put about 70% odds on Clinton winning. Who's Nate? There's no more better known person of prediction in this country, no more famous prognostic quant than former New York Times blogger and political poll aggregator Nate Silver, who had gained notoriety for correctly predicting the outcome of the 2012 presidential election for each individual state.
Presently, his up-to-the-minute forecast of the 2020 Democratic Primary is live, and his forecast of the 2020 general election is forthcoming.
By the way, number crunching serves more than just to forecast presidential elections – it also helps win presidential elections. Click here to read all about it.
Misconception #1: Blaming the prognosticator
Nate Silver speaks at a panel in New York City.
Photo: Krista Kennell/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images
When Clinton lost in 2016, everyone was like, "OMG, epic fail!" The reasoning was, well, the 70% forecast that she would win had proven to be wrong, so the problem must have been either bad polling data or something about Silver's model, or both.
But no – the forecast wasn't bad! "70%" does not mean Clinton will clearly win. And a 30% chance of Trump winning isn't a long shot at all. Something that happens 30% of the time is really pretty common and normal. And that's what a probability is. It means that, in a situation just like this, it will happen 30 out of 100 times, that is, 3 out of 10 times. Those aren't long odds.
And Clinton's 70% probability is actually closer to a 50/50 toss-up than it is to a 100% "sure thing." When you see "70%," the take-away isn't that Clinton is pretty much a shoe-in. No, the take-away is, "I dunno." Lot's of uncertainty.
I believe many people saw that "70%," and the thought process was like, "70% is a passing grade, so Clinton will definitely pass, so Clinton will definitely win."
Prediction is hard. To be more specific, there are many situations where the outcome is uncertain and we just can't be confident about what to expect. Nate Silver's model looked at the data and said this one was one of those situations. Now, a confident prediction may feel more satisfying. We all want definitive answers. But it's better for you to shrug your shoulders than to express confidence without a firm basis to do so, and it's better for the math to do the same thing.
Press the press to give it a rest
So, I feel kind of bad for Nate Silver. He totally got a bad rap. Most of the other prominent models at large actually put Clinton's chances much higher – between 92% and 99%. Those models exhibited overconfidence. Silver's model didn't strongly commit. It expressed, first and foremost, uncertainty.
Even the Harvard Gazette, in an article that ultimately defended Silver, put it this way: "Even leading statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com [that's Silver's site] gave Donald Trump a less than 1 in 3 chance of winning. So when he surged to victory... stunned political pundits blamed pollsters and forecasters, proclaiming 'the death of data.'"
It's like the journalist couldn't wrap her head around the fact that "less 1 in 3" – specifically a 30% chance – isn't remote odds. If there were a 30% chance a car would crash, you obviously wouldn't get in the car.
Nate Silver wasn't betting his life on one candidate or the other. His job as a forecaster wasn't to magically predict like a crystal ball. It was to tell you the odds as precisely as possible.
When asked by the same journalist whether he was saying he diverged from the general sentiment that polling had been a "massive failure," Silver said, "Not only am I not on that bandwagon, I think it's pretty irresponsible when people in the mainstream media perpetuate that narrative... We think our general election model was really good. It said there was a pretty good chance of Trump winning... if everyone says 'Trump has no chance' and you use modeling to say 'Hey, look at this more rigorously; he actually has a pretty good chance. Not 50 percent, but 30 percent is pretty good.' To me, that's a highly successful application of modeling."
I even remember hearing him have to talk down his coworkers on his own podcast just before the election, who were talking about Clinton's election as a done deal. It's like nobody understands what "30%" means.
Forecasting isn't futurism
When you're a contestant on the TV quiz show Jeopardy, you only buzz in when you think you know the answer to the question, cause if you get it wrong, you get penalized. So you gauge your own confidence, your own certainty that the answer you have will turn out to be correct. IBM's Watson computer that competed against human champions on that TV show did exactly that. Its predictive model served not only to select the answer to a question, it also provided a gauge of confidence in that answer, which directly informed whether or not the computer buzzed in to answer the question at all.
Here's my big prediction: Futurism will be entirely out of style within 20 years. Ha-ha – get it? My point is, forecasts aren't like futurism. Futurism is the practice of putting your entire reputation down on one confident bet. In contrast, forecasting judiciously allows for uncertainty – it even calls for it, as needed.
Misconception #2: Predicting candidates versus predicting voters
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at the first presidential debate of the 2016 presidential election at Hofstra University
Photo: Getty Images
The other common election forecast misconception is that the "70%" estimated how much of the votes Clinton would get. That's very much not the same thing as the chances of winning. Poll aggregators like Silver forecast which candidate will win; any forecast they also make about the percent of voters is secondary and distinct from the main probabilistic forecast.
After all, presidential races are much closer than 70/30. 2016 came out at 46% Trump against 48% Clinton, nationwide.
Now, if the data had us expecting one candidate would actually get 70% of the votes nationwide, then the chances of them winning would indeed be close to a sure thing – and a landslide victory at that. In that case, maybe they would actually end up getting less, like 60% – but that's still a likely electoral college win. And the chances are particularly slim that the outcome would land even further away from the expected 70%, down to below 50%, so a loss of the election would be a long shot, perhaps only a 1% chance. So, if you've forecasted a candidate will get 70% of the votes, that may translate to more like a 99% probability of winning.
Transforming polls to probabilities
Anyway, the 70% wasn't the expected proportion of votes. The expected proportion of votes is the input to Nate Silver's model not the output. To be more precise, the model inputs polls, which estimate how many will vote for each candidate, and outputs a forecast, the probability that a given candidate will win.
An election poll does not constitute magical prognostic technology – it is plainly the act of voters explicitly telling you what they're going to do. It's a mini-election dry run.
But there's a craft to aggregating polls, as Silver has mastered so adeptly. His model cleverly weighs large numbers of poll results, based on how many days or weeks old the poll is, the track record of the pollster, and other factors.
So Silver's model turns poll results into a forecasted probability. It maps from one to the other. That's what a predictive model does in general. It takes the data you have as input, and formulaically transforms it to a probability of the outcome or behavior you're seeking to foresee.
Often, model probabilities come closer to 50% than 100%. They're uncertain, like when your Magic Eight Ball says, "The outlook is hazy." It can be hard to sit with and accept a lack of certainty. When the stakes are high, we'd prefer to feel confident, to know how it's going to turn out. Don't let that impulse draw you to a false narrative. Practice not knowing. Shrug your shoulders more. It's good for you.
- - -
Eric Siegel, Ph.D., founder of the Predictive Analytics World and Deep Learning World conference series and executive editor of The Machine Learning Times, makes the how and why of predictive analytics (aka machine learning) understandable and captivating. He is the author of the award-winning book Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die, the host of The Dr. Data Show web series, a former Columbia University professor, and a renowned speaker, educator, and leader in the field. Follow him at @predictanalytic.
- Malcolm Gladwell on the 2016 Election, Sexism, and Moral ... ›
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Archaeologists identify contents of ancient Mayan drug containers
Scientists use new methods to discover what's inside drug containers used by ancient Mayan people.
A Muna-type paneled flask with distinctive serrated-edge decoration from AD 750-900.
- Archaeologists used new methods to identify contents of Mayan drug containers.
- They were able to discover a non-tobacco plant that was mixed in by the smoking Mayans.
- The approach promises to open up new frontiers in the knowledge of substances ancient people consumed.
PARME staff archaeologists excavating a burial site at the Tamanache site, Mérida, Yucatan.
Credit: WSU
Why cities are critical to achieving a carbon-neutral world
In May 2018, the city of Paris set an ambition to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
- Countries, governments and companies are aligning on a need for net-zero - and this is an opportunity to rethink decarbonizing our cities.
- There is no "one-size-fits-all" solution – each city's needs must be at the heart of developing integrated energy solutions.
- A city can only decarbonize through collaboration between government, the private sector, and local communities.
Japanese government appoints new "Minister of Loneliness"
While not the first such minister, the loneliness epidemic in Japan will make this one the hardest working.
Minister Tetsushi Sakamoto
- The Japanese government has appointed a Minister of Loneliness to implement policies designed to fight isolation and lower suicide rates.
- They are the second country, after the U.K., to dedicate a cabinet member to the task.
- While Japan is famous for how its loneliness epidemic manifests, it isn't alone in having one.
The Ministry of Loneliness
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/I5FIohjZT8o" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p><a href="https://www.jimin.jp/english/profile/members/114749.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tetsushi Sakamoto</a>, already in the government as the minister in charge of raising Japan's low birthrate and revitalizing regional economies, was appointed this <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/21/national/japan-tackles-loneliness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">month</a> to the additional role. He has already announced plans for an emergency national forum to discuss the issue and share the testimony of lonely <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/12/national/loneliness-isolation-minister/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">individuals</a>.</p><p>Given the complexity of the problem, the minister will primarily oversee the coordination of efforts between different <a href="https://www.insider.com/japan-minister-of-loneliness-suicides-rise-pandemic-2021-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ministries</a> that hope to address the issue alongside a task <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/21/national/japan-tackles-loneliness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">force</a>. He steps into his role not a moment too soon. The loneliness epidemic in Japan is uniquely well known around the world.</p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Hikikomori</em></a><em>,</em> often translated as "acute social withdrawal," is the phenomenon of people completely withdrawing from society for months or years at a time and living as modern-day hermits. While cases exist in many <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00247/full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">countries</a>, the problem is better known and more prevalent in Japan. Estimates vary, but some suggest that one million Japanese live like this and that 1.5 million more are at <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/photography/article/japan-hikikomori-isolation-society" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">risk</a> of developing the condition. Individuals practicing this hermitage often express contentment with their isolation at first before encountering severe symptoms of loneliness and <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200110155241.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">distress</a>.</p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodokushi" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Kodokushi</em></a>, the phenomenon of the elderly dying alone and remaining undiscovered for some time due to their isolation, is also a widespread issue in Japan that has attracted national attention for decades.</p><p>These are just the most shocking elements of the loneliness crisis. As we've discussed before, loneliness can cause health issues akin to <a href="https://www.inc.com/amy-morin/americas-loneliness-epidemic-is-more-lethal-than-smoking-heres-what-you-can-do-to-combat-isolation.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">smoking</a>. A lack of interaction within a community can cause social <a href="https://bigthink.com/in-their-own-words/how-religious-neighbors-are-better-neighbors" target="_self">problems</a>. It is even associated with changes in the <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/loneliness-brain" target="_self">brain</a>. While there is nothing wrong with wanting a little time to yourself, the inability to get the socialization that many people need is a real problem with real <a href="https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/brain-loneliness-hunger" target="_self">consequences</a>.</p>The virus that broke the camel's back
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hp-L844-5k8" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> A global loneliness pandemic existed before COVID-19, and the two working in tandem has been catastrophic. </p><p>Japanese society has always placed a value on solitude, often associating it with self-reliance, which makes dealing with the problem of excessive solitude more difficult. Before the pandemic, 16.1 percent of Japanese seniors reported having nobody to turn to in a time of need, the highest rate of any nation <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/02/21/national/japan-tackles-loneliness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">considered</a>. Seventeen percent of Japanese men surveyed in 2005 said that they "rarely or never spend time with friends, colleagues, or others in social groups." This was three times the average rate of other <a href="http://www.oecd.org/sdd/37964677.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">countries</a>. </p><p>American individualism also creates a fertile environment for isolation to grow. About a month before the pandemic started, nearly<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/01/23/798676465/most-americans-are-lonely-and-our-workplace-culture-may-not-be-helping" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> 3 in 5</a> Americans reported being lonely in a <a href="https://www.cigna.com/about-us/newsroom/studies-and-reports/combatting-loneliness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">report</a> issued by Cigna. This is a slight increase over previous studies, which had been pointing in the same direction for years. </p><p>In the United Kingdom, the problem prompted the creation of the Jo Cox Commission on Loneliness. The commission's <a href="https://www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/reports-and-briefings/active-communities/rb_dec17_jocox_commission_finalreport.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">final report </a>paints a stark picture of the U.K.'s situation in 2017, with millions of people from all parts of British society reporting feeling regular loneliness at a tremendous cost to personal health, society, and the economy.</p><p>The report called for a lead minister to address the problem at the national level, incorporating government action with the insights provided by volunteer organizations, businesses, the NHS, and other organizations on the crisis's front lines. Her Majesty's Government acted on the report and appointed the first Minister for Loneliness in <a href="https://time.com/5248016/tracey-crouch-uk-loneliness-minister/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">2018</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracey_Crouch" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tracey Crouch</a>, and dedicated millions of pounds to battling the problem. </p><p>The distancing procedures necessitated by the COVID-19 epidemic saved many lives but exacerbated an existing problem of loneliness in many parts of the world. While the issue had received attention before, Japan's steps to address the situation suggest that people are now willing to treat it with the seriousness it deserves.</p><p>--</p><p><em>If you or a loved one are having suicidal thoughts, help is available. The suicide prevention hotline can be reached at 1-800-273-8255.</em></p>How art and design can rebuild a community
MIT professor Azra Akšamija creates works of cultural resilience in the face of social conflict.
