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Investing $1.8 trillion in climate adaptation could yield $7.1 trillion

A new report argues that we stand to gain a lot economically by investing in 5 key areas.

Photo by Luca Bravo on Unsplash
  • The Global Commission on Adaptation, an organization led by Ban Ki-Moon, Bill Gates, and Kristalina Georgieva, breaks down the costs and benefits of investing in five key areas for climate adaptation.
  • Whereas climate mitigation focuses on reducing future greenhouse gas emissions, climate adaptation focuses on how to deal with the changing world that climate change will bring.
  • Both mitigation and adaptation projects are commonly criticized as being too expensive, but the new report underscores the quantitative benefits that could be realized.

The conversation around climate change has mostly focused on how we can best cut emissions, often referred to as climate mitigation. Significant sums have been invested by governments and private organizations into climate mitigation, which is — emphatically — a good thing. However, mitigation is just one side of the coin. Climate change experts also emphasize the need to invest in adaptive strategies that will help us deal with the world that our current emissions are already in the process of forming.

A recently published report by the Global Commission on Adaptation, an international organization led by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, Bill Gates, and World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva, focuses on the need for and potential nature of climate change adaptation. The report doesn't pull any punches: It asserts that climate change will reduce agricultural yields by 30 percent, deprive 5 billion people of sufficient water, cause $1 trillion in damages to coastal urban areas, and push 100 million people below the poverty line by 2050 or sooner.

Importantly, the report isn't just a forecast of doom and gloom. If unprecedented action is taken by investing $1.8 trillion in climate adaptation between 2020 and 2030, the world could realize $7.1 trillion in total net benefits. Specifically, the report calls for investment into five key areas: early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, mangrove protection, improved dryland agriculture, and water resources. These areas produce what the report calls a "triple dividend"; that is, they have value in terms of the losses they avoid and the economic and social/environmental benefits they provide.

5 key areas

The benefit-cost ratios and net benefits of investing in five key areas between 2020 and 2030. Not that the total does not add up due to rounding.

Global Commission on Adaptation.

Early warning systems, for instance, primarily derive value based off the damage they prevent. According to the report, just 24 hours of advanced warning for a severe storm or heat wave can cut the damage by 30 percent, and spending $800 million per year on such systems could avoid losses of up to $16 billion per year. For example, after cyclone Bhola killed 300,000 in Bangladesh, the country implemented a variety of early warning systems. Due in part to these systems, 2019's cyclone Fani killed just five individuals in Bangladesh.

Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure would tack on an additional three percent cost to infrastructure projects but would yield benefits at a rate of four to one. This is particularly crucial to get started on straightaway, since infrastructure can't typically be constructed quickly.

It might seem surprising, but the report found that investing in mangrove protection would be a powerful tool for climate adaptation. Not only do mangrove forest protect coastal communities (a service worth about $80 billion), they also provide habitats for fish, forestry, and recreational benefits worth up to $50 billion.

Global food demand is projected to grow by 50 percent by 2050, so investing in dryland agriculture is something of a no-brainer, especially since the agricultural industry is itself a significant source of greenhouse gases. As climate change reduces the world's arable land, it will both increase the price of food and push so-called smallholder farms out of the agricultural industry, exacerbating global poverty. Smallholder farms produce roughly a third of the world's food as well, meaning that this group is a crucial part of the global food supply chain. The report mainly focuses on how to protect these small farmers, such as in research into drought-tolerant varieties of maize, wheat, and rice; greater technical capabilities; insurance programs; and more.

As the planet continues to warm, we'll also need to protect our water resources. The report warns that countries that do not make an investment in their water resources will be far less likely to survive and thrive in the future than those that do. Many solutions to protecting water resources also have the added benefit of preserving the environment; programs such as the Great Green Wall Initiative in Africa or Mexico's protection of wetlands help to regulate the water supply and serve as critical ecosystems and carbon sinks.

A common criticism of climate change mitigation and adaptation proposals is that they are too expensive. Consider, for instance, the many criticisms of the Green New Deal. Nobody expects that the wholesale transformation of huge swathes of the global economy will be a cheap endeavor. The question, however, is whether this costly investment will ultimately be worth it. Because this issue has become regrettably politicized, it is tempting to fall back on correspondingly liberal or conservative gut-based estimates of the possible return. This recent report offers a cooler-headed, quantitative view of exactly how much we stand to lose from inaction, and how much we stand to gain.

You can read the full report here.

Radical innovation: Unlocking the future of human invention

Ready to see the future? Nanotronics CEO Matthew Putman talks innovation and the solutions that are right under our noses.

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Quantum particles timed as they tunnel through a solid

A clever new study definitively measures how long it takes for quantum particles to pass through a barrier.

Image source: carlos castilla/Shutterstock
  • Quantum particles can tunnel through seemingly impassable barriers, popping up on the other side.
  • Quantum tunneling is not a new discovery, but there's a lot that's unknown about it.
  • By super-cooling rubidium particles, researchers use their spinning as a magnetic timer.

When it comes to weird behavior, there's nothing quite like the quantum world. On top of that world-class head scratcher entanglement, there's also quantum tunneling — the mysterious process in which particles somehow find their way through what should be impenetrable barriers.

Exactly why or even how quantum tunneling happens is unknown: Do particles just pop over to the other side instantaneously in the same way entangled particles interact? Or do they progressively tunnel through? Previous research has been conflicting.

That quantum tunneling occurs has not been a matter of debate since it was discovered in the 1920s. When IBM famously wrote their name on a nickel substrate using 35 xenon atoms, they used a scanning tunneling microscope to see what they were doing. And tunnel diodes are fast-switching semiconductors that derive their negative resistance from quantum tunneling.

Nonetheless, "Quantum tunneling is one of the most puzzling of quantum phenomena," says Aephraim Steinberg of the Quantum Information Science Program at Canadian Institute for Advanced Research in Toronto to Live Science. Speaking with Scientific American he explains, "It's as though the particle dug a tunnel under the hill and appeared on the other."

Steinberg is a co-author of a study just published in the journal Nature that presents a series of clever experiments that allowed researchers to measure the amount of time it takes tunneling particles to find their way through a barrier. "And it is fantastic that we're now able to actually study it in this way."

Frozen rubidium atoms

Image source: Viktoriia Debopre/Shutterstock/Big Think

One of the difficulties in ascertaining the time it takes for tunneling to occur is knowing precisely when it's begun and when it's finished. The authors of the new study solved this by devising a system based on particles' precession.

Subatomic particles all have magnetic qualities, and they spin, or "precess," like a top when they encounter an external magnetic field. With this in mind, the authors of the study decided to construct a barrier with a magnetic field, causing any particles passing through it to precess as they did so. They wouldn't precess before entering the field or after, so by observing and timing the duration of the particles' precession, the researchers could definitively identify the length of time it took them to tunnel through the barrier.

To construct their barrier, the scientists cooled about 8,000 rubidium atoms to a billionth of a degree above absolute zero. In this state, they form a Bose-Einstein condensate, AKA the fifth-known form of matter. When in this state, atoms slow down and can be clumped together rather than flying around independently at high speeds. (We've written before about a Bose-Einstein experiment in space.)

Using a laser, the researchers pusehd about 2,000 rubidium atoms together in a barrier about 1.3 micrometers thick, endowing it with a pseudo-magnetic field. Compared to a single rubidium atom, this is a very thick wall, comparable to a half a mile deep if you yourself were a foot thick.

With the wall prepared, a second laser nudged individual rubidium atoms toward it. Most of the atoms simply bounced off the barrier, but about 3% of them went right through as hoped. Precise measurement of their precession produced the result: It took them 0.61 milliseconds to get through.

Reactions to the study

Scientists not involved in the research find its results compelling.

"This is a beautiful experiment," according to Igor Litvinyuk of Griffith University in Australia. "Just to do it is a heroic effort." Drew Alton of Augustana University, in South Dakota tells Live Science, "The experiment is a breathtaking technical achievement."

What makes the researchers' results so exceptional is their unambiguity. Says Chad Orzel at Union College in New York, "Their experiment is ingeniously constructed to make it difficult to interpret as anything other than what they say." He calls the research, "one of the best examples you'll see of a thought experiment made real." Litvinyuk agrees: "I see no holes in this."

As for the researchers themselves, enhancements to their experimental apparatus are underway to help them learn more. "We're working on a new measurement where we make the barrier thicker," Steinberg said. In addition, there's also the interesting question of whether or not that 0.61-millisecond trip occurs at a steady rate: "It will be very interesting to see if the atoms' speed is constant or not."

Self-driving cars to race for $1.5 million at Indianapolis Motor Speedway ​

So far, 30 student teams have entered the Indy Autonomous Challenge, scheduled for October 2021.

Illustration of cockpit of a self-driving car

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  • The Indy Autonomous Challenge will task student teams with developing self-driving software for race cars.
  • The competition requires cars to complete 20 laps within 25 minutes, meaning cars would need to average about 110 mph.
  • The organizers say they hope to advance the field of driverless cars and "inspire the next generation of STEM talent."
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