U.S. Election Notes, January 5
Welcome to the first of my weekly roundups of the upcoming U.S. elections. President Obama’s approval rating remains below 50% and the economy continues to be weak, but political futures markets still give him better than even odds of winning reelection. At the same time, they give Republicans a good chance of winning control of both houses of Congress. And although I wrote after the Iowa caucus that we shouldn’t assume that Mitt Romney will necessarily be the Republican nominee, futures traders consider the former Massachusetts governor the heavy favorite to challenge Obama in the fall.
Political Futures Markets
Chance President Obama will win reelection: 51.4% (Intrade)
Chance Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination: 80.0% (Intrade)
Chance that Republicans will win control of the Senate: 77.0% (Intrade)
Chance that Republicans will maintain control of the House: 70.2% (Intrade)
President Obama’s approval rating: 45.3% (Pollster)
Mitt Romney’s favorable rating: 36.5% (Pollster)
U.S. unemployment rate: 8.6% (November) (BLS)
One-year growth in real personal disposable income: -1.9% (Q3 2010) (BEA)
“Now that the 2012 GOP field has been winnowed to only two candidates with any real chance at nomination, the next big question is this: Who will key conservative leaders and groups support? The answer will determine whether Mitt Romney will waltz to the nomination—probably wrapping it up later this month—or if we’re in for a long, tough struggle, with Rick Santorum having a fighting chance.”—Jonathan Bernstein
“Cain, Perry, Bachmann all told them God to run for President, and all are out of the race. God is hilarious.”—Kelly Oxford
UP NEXT: the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 10
UPDATE: Removed generic the number for the generic congressional ballot, which was inaccurate.
Photo: Gage Skidmore
Upstreamism advocate Rishi Manchanda calls us to understand health not as a "personal responsibility" but a "common good."
- Upstreamism tasks health care professionals to combat unhealthy social and cultural influences that exist outside — or upstream — of medical facilities.
- Patients from low-income neighborhoods are most at risk of negative health impacts.
- Thankfully, health care professionals are not alone. Upstreamism is increasingly part of our cultural consciousness.
It marks a major shift in the government's battle against the opioid crisis.
- The nation's sixth-largest drug distributor is facing criminal charges related to failing to report suspicious drug orders, among other things.
- It marks the first time a drug company has faced criminal charges for distributing opioids.
- Since 1997, nearly 222,000 Americans have died from prescription opioids, partly thanks to unethical doctors who abuse the system.
An innovation may lead to lifelike evolving machines.
- Scientists at Cornell University devise a material with 3 key traits of life.
- The goal for the researchers is not to create life but lifelike machines.
- The researchers were able to program metabolism into the material's DNA.
The real Game of Thrones might be who best leverages the hit HBO show to shape political narratives.
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren argues that Game of Thrones is primarily about women in her review of the wildly popular HBO show.
- Warren also touches on other parallels between the show and our modern world, such as inequality, political favoritism of the elite, and the dire impact of different leadership styles on the lives of the people.
- Her review serves as another example of using Game of Thrones as a political analogy and a tool for framing political narratives.
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