U.S. Election Notes, January 5

Welcome to the first of my weekly roundups of the upcoming U.S. elections. President Obama’s approval rating remains below 50% and the economy continues to be weak, but political futures markets still give him better than even odds of winning reelection. At the same time, they give Republicans a good chance of winning control of both houses of Congress. And although I wrote after the Iowa caucus that we shouldn’t assume that Mitt Romney will necessarily be the Republican nominee, futures traders consider the former Massachusetts governor the heavy favorite to challenge Obama in the fall.


 Political Futures Markets

Chance President Obama will win reelection: 51.4% (Intrade)

Chance Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination: 80.0% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will win control of the Senate: 77.0% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will maintain control of the House: 70.2% (Intrade)

Polls

President Obama’s approval rating: 45.3% (Pollster)

Mitt Romney’s favorable rating: 36.5% (Pollster)

Economic Indicators

U.S. unemployment rate: 8.6% (November) (BLS)

One-year growth in real personal disposable income: -1.9% (Q3 2010) (BEA)

Comments

“Now that the 2012 GOP field has been winnowed to only two candidates with any real chance at nomination, the next big question is this: Who will key conservative leaders and groups support? The answer will determine whether Mitt Romney will waltz to the nomination—probably wrapping it up later this month—or if we’re in for a long, tough struggle, with Rick Santorum having a fighting chance.”—Jonathan Bernstein

“Cain, Perry, Bachmann all told them God to run for President, and all are out of the race. God is hilarious.”—Kelly Oxford

UP NEXT: the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 10

UPDATE: Removed generic the number for the generic congressional ballot, which was inaccurate.

Photo: Gage Skidmore

LinkedIn meets Tinder in this mindful networking app

Swipe right to make the connections that could change your career.

Getty Images
Sponsored
Swipe right. Match. Meet over coffee or set up a call.

No, we aren't talking about Tinder. Introducing Shapr, a free app that helps people with synergistic professional goals and skill sets easily meet and collaborate.

Keep reading Show less

10 books to check out from Jordan Peterson's 'Great Books' list

The Canadian professor has an extensive collection posted on his site.

Jordan Peterson with Carl Jung and the cover art of Jaak Panksepp's 'Affective Neuroscience' (Image: Chris Williamson/Getty Images/Big Think)
Personal Growth
  • Peterson's Great Books list features classics by Orwell, Jung, Huxley, and Dostoevsky.
  • Categories include literature, neuroscience, religion, and systems analysis.
  • Having recently left Patreon for "freedom of speech" reasons, Peterson is taking direct donations through Paypal (and Bitcoin).
Keep reading Show less

Scientists claim the Bible is written in code that predicts future events

The controversy around the Torah codes gets a new life.

Michael Drosnin
Surprising Science
  • Mathematicians claim to see a predictive pattern in the ancient Torah texts.
  • The code is revealed by a method found with special computer software.
  • Some events described by reading the code took place after the code was written.
Keep reading Show less

Should you invest in China's stock market? Know this one thing first.

Despite incredible economic growth, it is not necessarily an investor's paradise.

Videos
  • China's stock market is just 27 years old. It's economy has grown 30x over that time.
  • Imagine if you had invested early and gotten in on the ground floor.
  • Actually, you would have lost money. Here's how that's possible.