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How the Sagan standard can help you make better decisions
The noted astronomer and author Carl Sagan came up with a famous dictum acronymed ECREE.
- Carl Sagan famously shared the aphorism "Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence."
- This approach can help us fight off fake information.
- Scientific thinkers in centuries before Carl Sagan also expressed similar sentiment.
Is there an omnipotent all-knowing entity, otherwise known as "God", ruling our daily affairs and caring enough to judge our behaviors on an individual basis? Or is our life ruled by an invisible supercomputer that pre-ordains most of our actions, ensuring an impenetrable veil between us and reality, preventing all knowledge of the true nature of things? Or maybe there are advanced aliens out there, either responsible for guiding our meager attempts at civilizing or simply using us as guinea pigs in some incomprehensible experiment? Whatever it is that is really going on, the late astronomer Carl Sagan coined an aphorism to deal with just such grand proposals. "Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence," asserted Sagan in what has become known as the Sagan Standard. The same can also be referred to by the aphorism's acronym "ECREE".
While Sagan made the statement popular on his "Cosmos" shows of the 1980s, he wasn't necessarily the one who came up with the idea entirely on his own. Historians have pointed to a similar thought expressed in 1899 by the Swiss psychologist Théodore Flournoy who stated that "the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness". Flournoy, in his turn, actually based his idea on an 1814 saying by the French scientist and philosopher Pierre-Simon Laplace, who said "we ought to examine [seemingly inexplicable phenomena] with an attention all the more scrupulous as it appears more difficult to admit them".
Pierre-Simon, marquis de Laplace
19th century portrait
Other historians even go farther back, seeing the roots of this kind of thinking in 18-century critiques of magic by people like the Scottish philosopher David Hume, who wrote in 1748: "A wise man ... proportions his belief to the evidence", and "No testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous than the fact which it endeavors to establish."
Certainly, while there are large amounts of humans who still believe in actual miracles, we are also constantly bombarded by claims of both scientific and unscientific nature that beggar belief. ECREE can be a useful tool to keep in mind next time you encounter an outlandish political statement, a deepfake video, or an unprovable claim of a cure for cancer or alien sighting. Don't take outlandish statements for granted and ask for evidence. The greater the claim, the greater the amount of evidence required to prove it.
It’s Getting Harder to Spot a Deep Fake Video
While the idea behind the Sagan standard seems intuitively clear at first glance, to our science-minding modern brains, it has been the subject of criticism. Some, like the geologist and geophysicist David Deming, have argued that Sagan's dictum doesn't really define "extraordinary". After all, what is extraordinary to someone depends on their level of knowledge and their beliefs. Someone who knows very little would find many things beyond ordinary. It is also true that much of what is known scientifically today was not known even a hundred years ago, so certainly many claims which we generally agree upon now could be considered "extraordinary" by previous generations.
What this results in is that the popular concept has been used to bolster up orthodoxy and discredit innovation and research into science anomalies or even mainstream hypotheses which have much empirical evidence.
Still, keep that in mind, it can be a useful tool in these extraordinary times.
Carl Sagan's most important lesson about science
What is human dignity? Here's a primer, told through 200 years of great essays, lectures, and novels.
- Human dignity means that each of our lives have an unimpeachable value simply because we are human, and therefore we are deserving of a baseline level of respect.
- That baseline requires more than the absence of violence, discrimination, and authoritarianism. It means giving individuals the freedom to pursue their own happiness and purpose.
- We look at incredible writings from the last 200 years that illustrate the push for human dignity in regards to slavery, equality, communism, free speech and education.
The inherent worth of all human beings<p>Human dignity is the inherent worth of each individual human being. Recognizing human dignity means respecting human beings' special value—value that sets us apart from other animals; value that is intrinsic and cannot be lost.</p> <p>Liberalism—the broad political philosophy that organizes society around liberty, justice, and equality—is rooted in the idea of human dignity. Liberalism assumes each of our lives, plans, and preferences have some unimpeachable value, not because of any objective evaluation or contribution to a greater good, but simply because they belong to a human being. We are human, and therefore deserving of a baseline level of respect. </p> <p>Because so many of us take human dignity for granted—just a fact of our humanness—it's usually only when someone's dignity is ignored or violated that we feel compelled to talk about it. </p> <p>But human dignity means more than the absence of violence, discrimination, and authoritarianism. It means giving individuals the freedom to pursue their own happiness and purpose—a freedom that can be hampered by restrictive social institutions or the tyranny of the majority. The liberal ideal of the good society is not just peaceful but also pluralistic: It is a society in which we respect others' right to think and live differently than we do.</p>
From the 19th century to today<p>With <a href="https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?year_start=1800&year_end=2019&content=human+dignity&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2Chuman%20dignity%3B%2Cc0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Google Books Ngram Viewer</a>, we can chart mentions of human dignity from 1800-2019.</p><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg0ODU0My9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MTUwMzE4MX0.bu0D_0uQuyNLyJjfRESNhu7twkJ5nxu8pQtfa1w3hZs/img.png?width=980" id="7ef38" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9974c7bef3812fcb36858f325889e3c6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
American novelist, writer, playwright, poet, essayist and civil rights activist James Baldwin at his home in Saint-Paul-de-Vence, southern France, on November 6, 1979.
Credit: Ralph Gatti/AFP via Getty Images
The future of dignity<p>Around the world, people are still working toward the full and equal recognition of human dignity. Every year, new speeches and writings help us understand what dignity is—not only what it looks like when dignity is violated but also what it looks like when dignity is honored. In his posthumous essay, Congressman Lewis wrote, "When historians pick up their pens to write the story of the 21st century, let them say that it was your generation who laid down the heavy burdens of hate at last and that peace finally triumphed over violence, aggression and war."</p> <p>The more we talk about human dignity, the better we understand it. And the sooner we can make progress toward a shared vision of peace, freedom, and mutual respect for all. </p>
Scientists find that bursts of gamma rays may exceed the speed of light and cause time-reversibility.
- Astrophysicists propose that gamma-ray bursts may exceed the speed of light.
- The superluminal jets may also be responsible for time-reversibility.
- The finding doesn't go against Einstein's theory because this effect happens in the jet medium not a vacuum.
Jet bursting out of a blazar. Black-hole-powered galaxies called blazars are the most common sources detected by NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.
Cosmic death beams: Understanding gamma ray bursts<div class="rm-shortcode" data-media_id="cu2knVEk" data-player_id="FvQKszTI" data-rm-shortcode-id="c6cfd20fdf31c82cb206ade8ce21ba3f"> <div id="botr_cu2knVEk_FvQKszTI_div" class="jwplayer-media" data-jwplayer-video-src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/cu2knVEk-FvQKszTI.js"> <img src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/thumbs/cu2knVEk-1920.jpg" class="jwplayer-media-preview" /> </div> <script src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/cu2knVEk-FvQKszTI.js"></script> </div>
Philosophers have been asking the question for hundreds of years. Now neuroscientists are joining the quest to find out.
- The debate over whether or not humans have free will is centuries old and ongoing. While studies have confirmed that our brains perform many tasks without conscious effort, there remains the question of how much we control and when it matters.
- According to Dr. Uri Maoz, it comes down to what your definition of free will is and to learning more about how we make decisions versus when it is ok for our brain to subconsciously control our actions and movements.
- "If we understand the interplay between conscious and unconscious," says Maoz, "it might help us realize what we can control and what we can't."
We’ve mapped a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way. Take the virtual tour here.
See the most detailed survey of the southern sky ever carried out using radio waves.
Astronomers have mapped about a million previously undiscovered galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in the most detailed survey of the southern sky ever carried out using radio waves.
A new study shows our planet is much closer to the supermassive black hole at the galaxy's center than previously estimated.